In the end, it’s the top two seeds left standing in the US Open women’s singles championship: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina.
Rybakina will overtake Sabalenka for the No. 1 ranking after the tournament, but neither player will be thinking about that with the final Grand Slam title of 2026 is on the line today.
Sabalenka is attempting to win the US Open for the third straight year, while Rybakina is seeking her first.
This will be the 18th time these two have faced off, and they’ve already played three times in 2026. Sabalenka won two of the three, but Rybakina was victorious in the one that mattered most, defeating Sabalenka to claim her first Australian Open title.
We should be in for a good one on Saturday. Who will lift the US Open trophy when it’s all said and done?
Below, we’ll break down our Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Saturday’s match now!
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Women’s Final
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction for US Open – Saturday, September 12
Match Winner Payouts: Sabalenka 1.63x | Rybakina 2.12x
Tournament Round: Women’s Final
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Sabalenka 40-8 | Rybakina 42-13
Head-to-Head Record: Sabalenka leads 10-7
Scheduled Time: 4 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Aryna Sabalenka likely enters this final brimming with confidence following a dominant performance in the semifinals against Jessica Pegula.
The two played a tight opening set, but Sabalenka would only get stronger as the match went on, eventually pulling away with a 7-5, 6-2 straight-sets win. While Pegula played at a high level, her opponent routinely picked apart her second serve, as the American would win just 5 of her 19 second-serve points.
Following the match in the press, Pegula said it was probably the best match Sabalenka had played all year and candidly said, “Honestly, I don’t really know if there was much I could do today.”
It was the kind of surgical performance Sabalenka needed after a dicey quarterfinal match against Linda Noskova, where the Belarusian needed to claw back from a 4-2 deficit in the third set to escape with a 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7) win.
Outside of that close call, it’s been smooth sailing for the back-to-back US Open champ, winning her other five matches in straight sets.
Incredibly, Sabalenka is now riding a 20-match win streak at this event. It’s also her eighth straight hard-court final between the US Open and Australian Open.
Elena Rybakina has also played at a high level to reach this stage, but she’s had to survive stiff challenges from Qinwen Zheng and Coco Gauff over the last rounds. In both cases, Rybakina had to come back from a set down, defeating Zheng 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 before beating Gauff 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.
Unlike Sabalenka, this has historically been Rybakina’s worst major, as this is the first year she’s advanced past the round of 16 in New York.
That’s a bit surprising considering her status as one of the world’s best hard-court players. Entering the US Open, only Sabalenka had a higher win rate on the surface (87.2%) than Rybakina (83.0%) over the last 52 weeks.
The head-to-head is also close between these two. Sabalenka leads 10-7, but they’ve split the last six meetings 3-3 dating back to last summer.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Sabalenka and Rybakina rank first and second, respectively, on hard courts. The Belarusian is projected to win the match 57.5% of the time.
At the end of the day, not much separates these two, and this one feels like it really could go either way.
That being said, Sabalenka’s lost three times all year on hard courts, has an absurd track record in New York, and carries the slight edge in this head-to-head. She also hasn’t won a major this season after claiming at least one in each of the past three years, so she’ll be extra motivated to win this title on Saturday.
Make your Sabalenka vs. Rybakina US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina for the US Open on Saturday
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
During her US Open run, Sabalenka has scored 22.5, 26.5, 25.5, 21, 16, and 24 fantasy points.
After losing in three sets to Rybakina at the 2026 Australian Open – a match she at one point led 3-0 in the third set – Sabalenka won their next two hard-court matches 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) and 6-4, 6-3 during the spring. She scored 17.5 and 25.5 fantasy points, respectively, across those two victories.
On hard courts this season, Sabalenka has won 66.2% of her service points and held serve 85.0% of the time, both the best marks among the top 50 players. Rybakina ranks second in both categories, but there’s a sizable gap at 63.9% and 81.9%, respectively.
In the same sample, Sabalenka also carries a superior break rate (37.6%) compared to Rybakina (32.0%).
Sabalenka Pick – 15 Fantasy Score
Pick Sabalenka to win + fantasy score on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
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We could get one of the best matches of the tournament in the women’s final on Saturday. Does Aryna Sabalenka complete the three-peat, or will Elena Rybakina win her first US Open title?
Don’t wait until Saturday’s match start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!
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