We’re into the men’s semifinals at the US Open, and both matches will take place today on Arthur Ashe Stadium. First up is Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov this afternoon.
Zverev has benefited from a generous draw, as he has a chance to reach the final without facing a single top-20 player, let alone a top-10 one. That being said, Khachanov has been ranked as high as No. 8 in the world, and despite his struggles in 2026, he’s found his level at this US Open.
Can the Russian pull off the upset, or will Zverev reach his third straight major final of 2026?
Below, we’ll break down our Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 3 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Friday’s match now!
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Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Semifinals
Below are the payouts for who will win Friday’s Zverev vs. Khachanov match, via PrizePicks.
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Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov Prediction for US Open – Friday, September 11
Match Winner Payouts: Zverev 1.2x | Khachanov 4.16x
Tournament Round: Men’s Semifinals
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Zverev 46-13 | Khachanov 16-13
Head-to-Head Record: Tied 1-1
Scheduled Time: 3 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
We haven’t necessarily seen the best version of Alexander Zverev for much of this event, but he’s now won his last three matches in straight sets.
In the quarterfinals, he took out Botic van de Zandschulp in a mostly uneventful 6-2, 7-5, 6-1 win. While Zverev struggled a bit with double faults (7) and had to save a set point in the second set, he largely dominated the stat sheet, winning 77% of his first-serve points and 46% of his return points.
Zverev didn’t arrive in New York with a ton of momentum on North American hard courts, but he was a semifinalist at the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami earlier this year, so it’s hard to argue with his credentials. Further, he’s now one win away from making his third Grand Slam final in a row.
Of the four semifinalists, Karen Khachanov is easily the biggest surprise. Not only is Khachanov ranked just No. 50, but he entered the US Open on a four-match losing streak.
Outside of needing to grind out a five-set thriller against world No. 15 Learner Tien, Khachanov has also benefited from a fairly favorable draw.
When he faced world No. 4 Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round, FAA was struggling with physical issues, causing him to fade down the stretch. Most recently in the quarterfinals, Khachanov’s opponent, Alexander Blockx, retired midway through the third set.
Prior to this US Open run, the Russian hadn’t won more than two matches in a row since May, showing how surprising it is to see him in the semifinals. Additionally, Zverev is 6-3 against Khachanov, further suggesting the underdog could have a difficult time getting another surprise win.
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Zverev deserves to be a heavy favorite, projecting him to win 89.2% of the time.
Make your Zverev vs. Khachanov US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov Pick for the US Open on Friday
Over the last three rounds, Zverev's matches have gone 29, 29, and 27 total games.
Zverev has won four of the last five meetings between these two. Khachanov hasn't won a set in his four losses.
This season on hard courts, Khachanov has won just 33.0% of his return points with a 15.8% break rate. The averages among the top 50 players are 35.8% and 19.7%, respectively.
In that same sample, Zverev has won 72.0% of his service points with a 91.1% hold rate. Those both rank second among the top 50 players.
Zverev vs. Khachanov Pick – 38.5 Total Games
Pick Zverev to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov will face off in the first men's semifinal on Friday with a spot in the last round of the US Open at stake. Who comes out on top?
Don’t wait until Friday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!
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