Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Prediction, Pick for US Open – Friday, September 11

All eyes will be on tonight’s US Open semifinal match between Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe. We’re guaranteed to see an American man in the final for the second time in three years.

Shelton is fresh off the biggest win of his career after knocking out defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set thriller that ended up being the latest finish in US Open history (3:33 a.m.). This will be the 23-year-old’s second US Open semifinal after also reaching this stage in 2023.

Tiafoe had his own share of drama in the quarterfinals, coming back from two sets down to defeat fellow American Alex Michelsen. Frances has now reached the semifinals here in three of the past five years, but he’s never made it to the final.

Which American keeps the dream alive and advances to Sunday’s championship match?

Below, we’ll break down our Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Friday’s match now!

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Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Semifinals

Below are the payouts for who will win Friday’s Tiafoe vs. Shelton match, via PrizePicks. 

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Prediction for US Open – Friday, September 11

Match Winner Payouts: Tiafoe 3.22x | Shelton 1.31x
Tournament Round: Men’s Semifinals
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Tiafoe 37-16 | Shelton 33-13
Head-to-Head Record: Shelton leads 3-1
Scheduled Time: 7 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN

Shelton’s upset of Carlos Alcaraz is the biggest story of the tournament, both because it was the biggest win of the American’s career and because its late start meant many fans never got to see it live.

Those who did stay up to witness it were treated to a back-and-forth 6-7(5),6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7) marathon that lasted nearly four and a half hours. Shelton’s victory snapped an 0-3 head-to-head record against the Spaniard.

Alcaraz was playing his first tournament in nearly five months, so it’s unlikely he had his typical match readiness for a five-set battle. Still, this could prove to be a turning point for Shelton, who has historically struggled to beat the sport’s very best players.

Shelton has now won 11 of his last 12 matches dating back to his run to the Canadian Open title.  

Frances Tiafoe was on the brink of defeat in his quarterfinal against Alex Michelsen, down two sets with Michelsen serving for the match up 5-4 in the third. And yet, Tiafoe weathered the storm and persevered with a 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(6) escape.

It was a heartbreaking loss for Michelsen, who was consoled by Tiafoe following the match.

Tiafoe’s high level also dates back to earlier this summer, winning nine of his last 10 matches. Incredibly, he’s also won six straight against top-10 opponents dating back to the grass swing, and his latest one was a straight-sets win over Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16.

Shelton leads the head-to-head against Tiafoe 3-1, but they’ve split their two US Open matches in 2023 and 2024. Neither match was finished in straight sets.

According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Shelton ranks sixth on hard courts, while Tiafoe sits at 14th. That amounts to Shelton having a slight edge, with the model projecting a 61.7% win probability. 

Given that Shelton just eliminated the defending champion, it’s easy to see why he’s the favorite. However, Tiafoe could have a real chance at the upset, and it’s possible he’s not getting enough credit.    

Make your Tiafoe vs. Shelton US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Pick for the US Open on Friday

In four career matches between Shelton and Tiafoe, both players have won at least one set in three of them. While Tiafoe lost in straight sets in their most recent meeting last year in Washington, one of the two sets went to a tiebreak.

Both of their meetings at the US Open have gone four or more sets. At the 2024 US Open, Tiafoe won 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3 across 54 total games.

Four of Tiafoe's five matches at this US Open have gone over three sets and/or featured at least one tiebreak, and he's already played two five-setters. Similarly, Shelton's played four or more sets in four of his matches.

On hard courts this season, Tiafoe has a 22.6% break rate compared to just 17.5% for Shelton. However, Shelton carries the superior hold rate (90.5%) over Tiafoe (82.7%).

Tiafoe vs. Shelton Pick – 40.5 Total Games

Pick Tiafoe to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

We could see an epic match between Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton on Friday night. Which American advances to their first Grand Slam final?  

Don’t wait until Friday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.