Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Pick for US Open – Thursday, September 10

The top four seeds have all advanced to the women’s semifinals at this year’s US Open, giving us a pair of blockbuster matches on Thursday night. 

Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina will serve as the nightcap on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Gauff was shaky in her quarterfinal match, but she comes into the semis riding an 11-match win streak. Not to be outdone, Rybakina just clinched the world No. 1 ranking after her latest win, and this is the furthest she’s ever gone at the US Open.  

Below, we’ll break down our Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Thursday’s match now!

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Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Semifinals

Below are the payouts for who will win Thursday’s Gauff vs. Rybakina match, via PrizePicks. 

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction for US Open – Thursday, September 10

Match Winner Payouts: Gauff 1.92x | Rybakina 1.81x
Tournament Round: Women’s Semifinals
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Gauff 40-13 | Rybakina 42-13
Head-to-Head Record: Tied 1-1
Scheduled Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN

Coco Gauff was dangerously close to being out of this tournament on Wednesday, as her serve completely abandoned her at times against Mirra Andreeva, and she needed to save two match points just to force a third set. 

It was a messy match for Gauff, who committed 12 double faults and sprayed 42 unforced errors against just 22 winners, but Andreeva ultimately crumbled under the pressure in the final set, leading to an improbable 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-2 win for the American.

Gauff’s double faults brought back memories of last year’s serving woes, but she’s largely had things under control at this tournament, entering the quarterfinals averaging 4.0 per match.

She’ll almost certainly need to serve much better if she wants to get past the new world No. 1, Elena Rybakina.

Rybakina got her own scare in the quarterfinals, as she had to come back from a set down against Qinwen Zheng to win 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.

While this is Rybakina’s first US Open semifinal, she won the Australian Open earlier this year and is up to a 34-7 record on hard courts in 2026. She’s also the last player to beat Gauff, defeating the American in the Canadian Open semifinals before Gauff embarked on her current 11-match win streak.

Of course, Gauff has also been excellent on this surface this year, going 30-7 and lifting the trophy in Cincinnati as part of her red-hot play this summer.

The two players have now split their head-to-head 1-1, and both matches have gone three sets. According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Rybakina and Gauff rank second and third, respectively, on hard courts, with roughly 25 points separating them. That amounts to a mere 53.7% win probability in favor of Rybakina.

This match could effectively be a toss-up. 

With that in mind, if Gauff can get her serve back in order, her home-court advantage in front of the New York crowd — which helped will her way through the quarterfinals — could prove to be the deciding factor. 

Make your Gauff vs. Rybakina US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina for the US Open on Thursday

Gauff vs. Rybakina Pick – 22.5 Total Games

Rybakina beat Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 across 28 total games in their match this summer in Toronto. Their previous meeting in 2022 also happened to be in Toronto, and the American took that one 6-4, 6-7(8), 7-6(3) over 36 total games.

Both players went three sets in the quarterfinals against strong opponents. Andreeva is the world No. 5 and won this year's French Open. Zheng has a low ranking due to an injury last season, but she's a former world. No. 4 who won a gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

In Gauff's 10 matches against top-10 opponents this year, eight have gone to a deciding third set.

For Rybakina, seven of her 12 completed matches versus top-10 players in 2026 have reached three sets and/or featured a tiebreak.

On hard courts this season, Rybakina has won the second-most service points (63.9%), helping her to the second-best hold rate (81.9%). However, Gauff has won the second-most return points (47.7%) and boasts the second-best break rate (44.8%).

Pick Gauff to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina should give us an exciting match that could go either way. Which player will reach the women's final?

Don’t wait until Thursday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

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