On Thursday, we’re getting a compelling women’s final in Toronto between Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina. This is a top-10 matchup between multiple-time Grand Slam champions, and the winner will be a first-time Canadian Open champion.
Below, we’ll break down our Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at 6:00 p.m. ET on Tennis Channel.
Make your Canadian Open predictions on PrizePicks for Thursday’s match now!
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Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Favorite for the Canadian Open Women’s Final
Below are the payouts for who will win Thursday’s Swiatek vs. Rybakina match, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina Canadian Open Prediction – Thursday, August 13
Match Winner Payouts: Swiatek 1.66x | Rybakina 2.08x
Tournament Round: Women’s Final
2026 Record Entering the Canadian Open: Swiatek 23-12 | Rybakina 34-11
Head-to-Head Record: Tied 6-6
Scheduled Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: Tennis Channel
It’s weird to think this is Iga Swiatek’s first singles final all season, but it’s been that kind of year for the former world No. 1.
Swiatek is a six-time major winner with 25 career titles, yet she had advanced to just one semifinal in 2026 before this event. Reaching this final alone could be a crucial turning point in her season, and lifting the trophy would give her confidence an even bigger boost.
The Polish player has now beaten three straight top-20 opponents to reach this stage, defeating Marta Kostyuk, Diana Shnaider, and Elina Svitolina. The win over Svitolina must have been particularly sweet after losing to her twice this season.
It’s been a curious road for Elena Rybakina to this final, as four of her five matches have gone to a deciding third set. She’s been playing with fire throughout the tournament, and over the past two rounds, she needed to come back from a set down against both Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff.
Rybakina also entered the event in shaky form, going .500 across her last four tournaments, including early exits at the French Open and Wimbledon.
That being said, the world No. 2 has enjoyed a strong season overall, particularly on hard courts. Rybakina won the Australian Open and finished runner-up at Indian Wells, and she’s now 26-5 on the surface this season.
Swiatek and Rybakina have split their head-to-head 6-6, though Rybakina has won their last two meetings—most recently beating Swiatek at this year’s Australian Open.
Ultimately, recent form would seem to favor Swiatek, but Rybakina has enjoyed the better 2026 campaign and has gotten the better of this rivalry of late. With that in mind, there could be value in the underdog in what looks like an even matchup.
Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings are bullish on Rybakina in this matchup, giving her a 62.1% win probability.
Make your Swiatek vs. Rybakina WTA Toronto prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina Pick for the Canadian Open on Thursday
Iga Swiatek Pick – 15.5 Fantasy Score
Rybakina is 14-3 versus top-10 opponents on hard courts over the past 52 weeks. All three losses have come to world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
All but one of Rybakina’s Toronto matches have gone three sets. In Swiatek’s two three-set wins, she scored just 18 and 12 fantasy points.
Over the course of the tournament, Swiatek has logged only 3 total aces compared to 9 double faults.
Rybakina's serve has been up and down at this Canadian Open, but it's lethal when she's on. Over the past 52 weeks on hard courts, she's won the second-highest percentage of service points (65.3%) and owns the best ace rate (10.7%) among the top 50 players.
Make Your Canadian Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina should give us an entertaining women’s final. Which player will win the Canadian Open for the first time?
Don’t wait until Thursday’s matches start—make your Canadian Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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