Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction, MLB Picks for Friday, July 24

The New York Yankees are set to begin a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, July 24, at 6:45 p.m. ET, live on Apple TV. The Phillies are favored to come away with the win over the Yankees, owning a 1.69x payout to secure a victory on Friday, per PrizePicks Team Picks.

Last season, Philadelphia won their lone three-game series against New York, 2-1, outscoring them 24-13.

Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, July 24

To get the series underway, it will be Yankees SP Will Warren (3.95 xFIP across 99.0 IP) and Phillies SP Jesús Luzardo (2.93 xFIP across 115.1 IP) facing off on the bump.

Although Warren holds a 4.00 ERA, he resides in the 36th percentile in xERA (4.49) and the 25th percentile in xBA (.261), per Baseball Savant. Warren is also in just the 47th percentile in strikeout rate (22.4%) and the 37th percentile in hard-hit rate (40.1%).

On the other hand, Luzardo has outperformed his 3.43 ERA, ranking in the 90th percentile in xERA (2.91) and the 85th percentile in xBA (.207). Luzardo hasn’t given up more than 1 ER in a game in five consecutive starts, last eclipsing 1 ER on June 16.

With the Phillies sitting 4.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, they have the second-lowest payout to win the division (2.77x) on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Over the last month, Philadelphia has been shaky at the plate, tallying the ninth-worst wRC+ (95), 11th-worst wOBA (.315), and 13th-worst ISO (.168), per FanGraphs. As for New York, it's struggled without RF Aaron Judge in the lineup, posting the second-worst wRC+ (72), second-worst wOBA (.273), and 12th-worst ISO (.160) in the same 30-day span.

Entering Friday’s contest, the Yankees have the second-lowest payout to win the World Series (5.88x), while the Phillies have the sixth-lowest mark(11.11x).

Yankees vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, July 24

The Phillies enter Friday’s game as a home favorite against the Yankees, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Phillies -1.5 (2.5x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Yankees 2.08x | Phillies 1.69x

Make your Yankees vs. Phillies prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction on the Winner – 7/24/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Phillies prediction on the winner for Friday, July 24.

• As mentioned above, Luzardo has coughed up 1 or fewer ER in five straight starts. Luzardo has also permitted fewer than 3 ER in 11 of his last 12 starts.
• Across the last 30 days, the Yankees have the second-worst wRC+ (60), second-worst wOBA (.255), and highest strikeout rate (31.3%) against lefties.
• Without Judge active, New York’s best hitters are left-handed — including Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Jazz Chisholm.
• Against left-handed sluggers this season, Luzardo boasts an elite 1.91 xFIP, 0.81 WHIP, and 0.29 HR/9.
• On the road, Warren owns a 5.03 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and just a 15.0% strikeout rate.
• Warren also has a 4.45 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and 1.46 HR/9 when facing lefties in 2026.
• The Phillies’ three best hitters against right-handed pitchers, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh, are all lefties.

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Yankees vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/24/26

Here are the top Yankees vs. Phillies picks to target on Friday, July 24. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Bryce Harper and Jesús Luzardo.

Phillies 1B Bryce Harper vs. Yankees: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Harper has a 165 wRC+, .418 wOBA, and .321 ISO against right-handed hurlers this season.
• Since the start of June, Harper has produced a 166 wRC+, .420 wOBA, and .352 ISO.
• At home this year, Harper also carries a 140 wRC+, .383 wOBA, and .264 ISO.
• Once again, Warren has a 4.45 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and 1.46 HR/9 against left-handed hitters.

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Phillies SP Jesús Luzardo vs. Yankees: 4.5 Hits Allowed

• Luzardo has permitted fewer than 5 hits in four consecutive starts.
• In his three starts in July, Luzardo has a 2.31 xFIP, 0.67 WHIP, and 39.1% strikeout rate.
• Reiterating a point from above, the Yankees’ best hitters sans Judge are lefties.
• When facing lefties, Luzardo has a 1.91 xFIP, 0.81 WHIP, and 0.29 HR/9.

Add Jesús Luzardo to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Yankees vs. Phillies Picks on PrizePicks

The Phillies should have a pitching advantage over the Yankees on Friday, especially with the way Jesús Luzardo is pitching recently. Will Philadelphia get their three-game series against New York started on the right foot?

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Yankees vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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