Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, August 20

The New York Yankees will conclude a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday, August 20, at 6:35 p.m. ET. Ahead of the first pitch, the Yankees are slightly favored on the road with a 1.72x payout to secure a victory on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Besides potentially sweeping Baltimore in the current three-game series on Thursday, New York has won three straight, and they’ve gone 7-2 against the O's this season.

Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Orioles prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, August 20

For the final game of the series, Yankees SP Gerrit Cole (3.56 xFIP across 86.2 IP) and Orioles SP Kyle Bradish (4.01 xFIP across 133.0 IP) will face each other on the bump.

Ahead of his 16th start in 2026, Cole resides in the 73rd percentile or better in xERA (3.37), strikeout rate (26.1%), and walk rate (5.4%), per Baseball Savant. At the same time, Cole’s 40th-percentile barrel rate (8.1%) and 18th-percentile hard-hit rate (42.7%) can lead to undesirable results.

As for Bradish, he ranks in the 47th percentile or worse in xERA (4.09), xBA (.239), strikeout rate (22.1%), and walk rate (10.3%). Bradish also struggles with loud contact at times, sitting in the 49th percentile in barrel rate (7.5%) and 56th percentile in hard-hit rate (37.4%).

Across the last two weeks, the Yankees are still sputtering sans RF Aaron Judge, producing the seventh-worst wRC+ (82), sixth-worst wOBA (.286), and highest strikeout rate (28.5%), per FanGraphs. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ bats have woken up a bit, tallying the sixth-best wRC+ (117), eighth-best wOBA (.337), and second-best ISO (.197) in the same two-week sample.

Time is ticking for Baltimore to make a postseason push, as a prediction of “Yes” for it to make the playoffs returns a 4.76x payout, while “No” has a 1.13x payout. Although it's lacked consistency in recent months, New York still has the third-lowest payout to win the World Series (7.69x) on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Yankees vs. Orioles Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, August 20

The Yankees enter Thursday’s game as a slight road favorite against the Orioles, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Orioles game on PrizePicks.

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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction on Over/Under – 8/20/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Orioles prediction on the total runs scored for Thursday, August 20.

• Bradish will be making his third start of the season against the Yankees on Thursday, and he coughed up 5 ER, 2 HR, and 4 BB in one of his first two outings.
• Additionally, Bradish has worse splits at home, logging a 4.53 xFIP, 20.4% strikeout rate, and 1.06 HR/9 when pitching at Camden Yards. He has a 3.59 xFIP, 23.3% K-rate, and 0.73 HR/9 on the road.
• Cole has a 3.62 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, and 24.7% strikeout rate on the road compared to respective marks of 3.50, 0.87, and 27.6% at home.
• Six of the nine head-to-head meetings between Baltimore and New York in 2026 have reached at least 8 total runs scored.
• Over the last seven days, the Orioles’ relievers have the seventh-worst xFIP (4.38) and 11th-lowest left-on-base percentage (70.0%).
• While the Yankees’ bullpen has the fifth-best xFIP (3.74) in the last month, it also has the 13th-highest hard-contact rate (33.6%) and 10th-worst HR/9 (1.24).

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Yankees vs. Orioles Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 8/20/26

Here are the top Yankees vs. Orioles picks to target on Thursday, August 20. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include George Lombard Jr. and Pete Alonso.

Yankees SS George Lombard Jr. vs. Orioles: 3.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Bradish is producing reverse splits in 2026 with a 4.10 xFIP and 1.01 HR/9 to righties and a 3.95 xFIP and 0.79 HR/9 to lefties.
• Although it’s a small sample, Lombard has achieved a 156 wRC+ and .395 wOBA on the road compared to a 135 wRC+ and .360 wOBA at home.
• Since being called up by the Yankees in August, Lombard is registering a 142 wRC+, .373 wOBA, and .159 ISO.
• Along with being on a four-game hitting streak, Lombard has recorded multiple hits in back-to-back matchups against the Orioles.

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Orioles 1B Pete Alonso vs. Yankees: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Alonso is currently on an 11-game hitting streak and has posted at least 2 hits + runs + RBI in nine of them.
• Since the start of August, Alonso boasts a 214 wRC+, .476 wOBA, and .317 ISO.
• Alonso is crushing righties to the tune of a 155 wRC+, .391 wOBA, and .249 ISO in 2026.
• Cole owns a 3.65 xFIP and 1.23 WHIP against righties versus a 3.51 xFIP and 1.01 WHIP against lefties.

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The Yankees have a chance to sweep the Orioles in their current three-game series on Thursday. With Cole and Bradish having concerning underlying metrics in the power department, should we expect runs at Oriole Park for the series finale?

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Yankees vs. Orioles picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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