Our 2026 Wimbledon predictions for the late Day 5 matches on Friday, July 3 include Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko, Hubert Hurkacz vs, Tommy Paul, and Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Michael Zheng.
Sabalenka has reached the Wimbledon semifinals in each of her last three tries, but this remains the only major where she hasn’t been a finalist. Sabalenka is still the favorite to lift the trophy at Wimbledon (3.22x payout on PrizePicks), but finds herself in a tricky third-round matchup vs. Ostapenko.
On the men’s side, Hurkacz and Paul could give us one of today’s best matches. Auger-Aliassime has cruised through the first two rounds and is looking to make it to the second week at Wimbledon for the first time since 2021.
Below, we’ll break down our best Wimbledon predictions for Friday’s Day 5 matches, including winner payouts, key stats, and three third-round Wimbledon predictions for PrizePicks.
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2026 Wimbledon Predictions, Tennis Picks – Friday, July 3
Before we get into our Wimbledon predictions for Friday, here’s a quick look at the three matches we’re targeting and the favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can pick winners on each match.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko — Third Round
- Sabalenka – 1.2x payout | Ostapenko – 4x payout
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul — Third Round
- Hurkacz – 2.56x payout | Paul – 1.44x payout
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Michael Zheng — Third Round
- Auger-Aliassime – 1.17x payout | Zheng – 4.54x payout
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 35 states.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Prediction — Friday, July 3
Match Winner Payouts: Sabalenka 1.2x | Ostapenko 4x
Tournament Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
2026 Record Entering Wimbledon: Sabalenka 33-5 | Ostapenko 19-14
Head-to-Head Record: Sabalenka Leads 3-1
How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN App
Although world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set through two rounds at Wimbledon, the last one she played was hardly routine, coming back from down 5-2 and saving four set points before eventually prevailing in a tiebreak.
She’ll face the mercurial Jelena Ostapenko next, who is a very capable grass player. While she can be feast or famine in Grand Slams, Ostapenko is a three-time quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and reached the semis in 2018. Two of her nine career titles have also come on this surface.
Thus far, Ostapenko has navigated a first-round three-setter versus British player Harriet Dart (6-3, 3-6, 6-4) — one in which she decided to get spicy with the pro-Brit crowd — and then made quick work of Antonia Ruzic in the next stage (6-2, 6-0).
Sabalenka is 3-1 lifetime versus Ostapenko, and she hasn’t been defeated this early in any major since 2022. While the Latvian is a dangerous grass opponent, Sabalenka is strong on all surfaces and has lost just five times all season.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko Pick for Wimbledon on Friday
Aryna Sabalenka Pick — 23 Fantasy Score
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost are +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
Although Ostapenko has been victorious only once in four matches against Sabalenka, she won their most recent meeting in straight sets (2025 Stuttgart).
The two have also never played on grass, and Ostapenko’s 68.5% win rate in tour-level grass matches is her best of the three surfaces. That’s actually higher than Sabalenka’s win rate in the split (64.9%).
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Sabalenka ranks first on grass, but Ostapenko is a rock-solid 18th.
Sabalenka has scored more than 23 fantasy points once in her last five matches, all of which have come on grass.
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Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul Wimbledon Prediction — Friday, July 3
Match Winner Payouts: Hurkacz 2.56x | Paul 1.44x
Tournament Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
2026 Record Entering Wimbledon: Hurkacz 10-13 | Paul 30-12
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN App
Tommy Paul has taken care of business at these Championships, winning matches in straight sets against Alexandre Muller and Soonwoo Kwon. He’s been broken on serve only once so far.
The American is now 6-1 on grass this season, and all six victories have come without dropping a set.
While Paul was expected to handle Muller and Kwon without much trouble, he’ll now face a much tougher test in Hubert Hurkacz.
After missing the second half of 2025 due to injury, Hurkacz is barely ranked inside the top 100, but he’s a former top-10 player.
Losing two of three grass matches ahead of Wimbledon didn’t inspire confidence, but Hurkacz has lifted his level since coming to Wimbledon, knocking out Casper Ruud and Sebastian Ofner in straight sets.
Hurkacz was a Wimbledon semifinalist in 2021 and has won 65% of his career Wimbledon main-draw matches, another reminder of how dangerous he can be on this surface.
Paul’s stellar play on grass this season will make him a tough out, but his Polish opponent is unlikely to go quietly, either, if he plays as he did in the first two rounds.
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Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul Pick for Wimbledon on Friday
Hurkacz vs. Paul Pick — 40.5 Total Games
This will be the first time these two face each other at a major. While Paul leads the head-to-head against Hurkacz 3-1, all four matches have been competitive. Two went to a deciding third set, while the other two featured a tiebreak.
This season, Hurkacz has played in 24 tiebreaks across just 25 matches. Of the six sets he’s played thus far here, two have gone to a tiebreaker.
Both players have strong track records on grass. Paul owns a 65.9% career win rate on the surface, and Hurkacz has won 62.8% of his career grass matches.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Michael Zheng Prediction for Wimbledon — Friday, July 3
Match Winner Payouts: Auger-Aliassime 1.17x | Zheng 4.54x
Tournament Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
2026 Record Entering Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime 26-13 | Zheng 1-4
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN App
Felix Auger-Aliassime has been maddeningly inconsistent in Grand Slams. But after this year’s quarterfinal finish at Roland Garros, FAA has now reached at least the quarters in all four majors.
FAA hasn’t dropped a set through the first two rounds at Wimbledon by dominating on serve. He won 76% of his service points against Aleksandr Shevchenko, and then followed that up with a 74% clip against Dino Prizmic. He tallied 15 aces against each opponent, as well, and hasn’t been broken.
With the Canadian playing at such a high level, this could be an uphill battle for Michael Zheng.
Zheng is a two-time NCAA champion who just graduated from Columbia, and he’s qualified for all three majors this season.
However, the American is just 1-4 in tour-level matches this year and is yet to face a top-20 opponent in his young career, let alone someone ranked No. 4 in the world like FAA.
While Zheng got a top-30 win over Cameron Norrie in the first round, it’s less impressive when you consider Norrie had dealt with a recent rib injury and was on a five-match losing streak coming into Wimbledon. Despite Norrie’s lack of form and possibly health, Zheng barely edged past him across five sets.
In all, this is a sizable step up in competition for Zheng, and FAA has looked the part of a top-five player right now.
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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Michael Zheng Pick for Wimbledon on Friday
Auger-Aliassime vs. Zheng Pick — 36.5 Total Games
In his career, FAA is 31-19 in tour-level grass matches, good for a 62.0% win percentage. Prior to Wimbledon, Zheng had never played a tour-level match on the surface.
Zheng has lost at least one set to each of his last three opponents despite having favorable matchups.
In addition to going five sets against a struggling Norrie, he went four sets in the second round against world No. 165 Nicolas Mejia. The American also played a four-setter in the final round of qualifying against world No. 186 Colton Smith.
Per Tennis Abstract, FAA owns the tour’s 11th-best overall Elo rating while Zheng is 114th.
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We can expect a slugfest between Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko, while Hubert Hurkacz and Tommy Paul should also provide an entertaining battle. Canada No. 1 Felix Auger-Aliassime will round out play on Centre Court against upstart Michael Zheng.
Don’t wait until the Wimbledon Day 5 matches start — make your Wimbledon predictions on PrizePicks now.
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