Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – 10/1/26

In the blink of an eye, we’re already heading into Week 5 of the 2026 college football season. With that comes a fresh slate for fans to enjoy, kicked off by Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State at 8 p.m. ET.

Ahead of the bout on CBS Sports Network, the hosting Aggies are favored by 2.5 points on PrizePicks. It hasn’t been the season either team had hoped for to this point, so Conference USA bragging rights and the ability to get back on track are at stake here. 

Below, we'll break down our Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction and picks for Thursday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and winner on PrizePicks.

Make your Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 1

After back-to-back eight-win seasons, the Tyson Helton era rolled on in 2025 with Western Kentucky going 9-4 last year, including another 6-2 mark in conference play. That run ended on a high note with a New Orleans Bowl over Southern Mississippi in December, during which program alum QB Maverick McIvor won MVP. 

It was an offseason filled with change for the Hilltoppers, who entered the 2026 campaign ranking 133rd out of 138 FBS programs in returning production from 2025 at just 32%. This is headlined by a new QB (Brock Glenn) in town to support Rodney Tisdale Jr., as well as offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder coming over from Middle Tennessee. 

Well, it’s safe to say the results aren’t aligning with the hype. WKU’s new-look offense is 133rd in adjusted EPA per play (-0.39, via Game on Paper), contributing to just 20 combined points scored in consecutive blowout losses to #2 Georgia (70-20) and #4 Indiana (38-0). With that said, the Hilltoppers did snag a 45-point throttling of Mercyhurst in Week 4. 

Three-star freshman WR Jonathan Stafford Jr. is a player to keep an eye on for WKU, as is senior RB Ajay Allen.

It’s been tough sledding for New Mexico State since head coach Jerry Kill’s tenure ended following 2023’s 10-5 campaign. Tony Sanchez combined to go 7-17 spanning the 2024 and 2025 seasons but also dropped plenty of one-score games that flashed the upside of a competitive program. 

QB Trey Hedden opened the year entrenched under center and is now complemented by RB James Jones, with the dynamic duo already combining for 1,242 yards of offense but the team’s true success tells a vastly different story than that. 

The Aggies are also 1-3 coming into Week 5, with this being a potential bounce-back opportunity after falling well short to New Mexico by a final of 42-18. Hedden struggled immensely in that outing, ultimately being replaced by junior signal-caller Adam Damante. 

That’s opened up a QB battle once again for NMSU, which is far from ideal considering the midpoint of the season is right around the corner. 

On the other side of the ball, New Mexico State has some returners such as DL Henry Davis III (9 tackles, 2.5 sacks), DE Gabe Peterson (3 TFLs), LB Tory Gethers (24 tackles), and S Nick Session (28 tackles) leading the way. 

Dating back to the 2023 season, these programs have met three times on the Gridiron. Western Kentucky owns the set with a 2-1 advantage, including a cover 11 months ago to the day as 7.5-point home favorites. 

There are no significant injuries to note with kickoff approaching.

Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 1

New Mexico State enters Thursday’s game as a 2.5-point home favorite against Western Kentucky, returning a 1.75x payout on PrizePicks if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State game on PrizePicks.

Make your Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Prediction on Spread – 10/1/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction on the spread for Thursday, October 1’s game. 

• Western Kentucky went 4-1 against the spread as road underdogs in 2025, also posting a 1-1 ATS mark in that situation this year. New Mexico State earned records of 0-2 and 1-0, respectively. 
• Through four games, the Toppers set up their drives better than the Aggs. WKU’s average starting field position (29.5 yards) trumps NMSU’s 24.4 figure that’s third-worst in the nation, via Fourth and Short.
• The Western Kentucky defense ranks in the 66th percentile in explosive pass rate allowed; New Mexico State’s offense is in just the 30th percentile in pass success rate.
• Inversely, via College Football Data, WKU’s passing offense is 13th in explosiveness rating (1.856), while NMSU’s defense is 51st (1.469). 
• Jones’ volume is impressive, but he isn’t effective on a per-run basis. According to Game on Paper, his 0.06 EPA/rush in 2026 ranks 144th among qualified rushers.
• Fourth Down Data reveals that WKU holds situational EPA edges in red-zone offense (0.317 to -0.042) and third-down defense (0.027 to 0.099). 
• The Hilltoppers are significantly more disciplined than the Aggies, committing just 4.7 penalties per game compared to 6.3. 

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Neither of these teams has a QB situation that’s completely set in stone, which could add plenty of intrigue to what’s otherwise a low-key matchup to begin Week 5 of the college football season. Can the Hilltoppers get the train back on the rails, or will it be the Aggies that establish some consistency for the first time all year long?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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