Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction, Spread, NBA Picks – Wednesday, November 11

Two Western Conference playoff hopefuls will collide tonight in H-Town for a primetime battle.

The Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday, November 11, at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. According to PrizePicks, the Rockets are a 5.5-point favorite tonight.

As one of the top surprises in the NBA, the Dubs seem like contenders again. They’ve rattled off eight wins in a row entering a visit to Houston, where the Rockets have won five of six games at Toyota Center. These teams have identical 8-3 records and are tied for fourth in the ultra-competitive conference standings.

Below, we'll break down the matchup for our Warriors vs. Rockets prediction, including the spread, over/under, and player projections on PrizePicks.

Make your Warriors vs. Rockets picks on PrizePicks now!

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Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, November 11

The Rockets enter Wednesday’s matchup as a 5.5-point favorite over the Warriors. The Dubs return a 2.63x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Warriors vs. Rockets matchup. 

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Warriors vs. Rockets prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Stats used in this article are from Basketball Reference, PBP Stats, NBA.com, or databallr unless stated otherwise.

Especially after a drubbing in their opener against the Lakers, I’m not sure many expected the Stephen Curry title window to look alive and well in mid-November, but it absolutely does.

Golden State has won eight in a row with the league’s second-best offensive rating (119.0) and 11th-best defensive rating (110.3). It feels like rookie F Yaxel Lendeborg, averaging 21.4 points and 7.2 assists, has completely invigorated the rotation.

The Warriors also have some necessary picks and contracts to potentially add to this roster.

If there’s a criticism of Golden State, it’s that the last five teams it's faced have a losing record. It’s been a soft spot in the schedule that violently ends tonight in H-Town.

The Rockets’ depth has them on a shortlist of contenders across the league’s top analysts, and it’s been on display thus far. Ime Udoka’s team is third and ninth, respectively, in offensive and defensive rating but has faced a team with a winning record in nine of its first 11 tilts.

Houston beat Denver on Monday to begin this homestand. Four different Rockets scorers are averaging 15 points per game (rounded), and the most surprising of the bunch is a leap from F Jabari Smith Jr. (17.0 PPG) after an offseason of trade rumors.

Can the Warriors continue this recent hot streak against a tough foe, or will the Rockets establish themselves as a true top dog in the conference?

Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction on Over/Under – 11/11/26

Here are the key stats behind our Warriors vs. Rockets prediction on the over/under for Wednesday, November 11.

• Both teams roll into this one at 6-5 to the over on the year, but some underlying metrics indicate that the mark may not hold over time.
• Golden State and Houston are 27th and 19th, respectively, in pace entering Wednesday’s matchup.
• These squads’ strong defensive ratings are despite opponents shooting a top-11 rate on 3-pointers this season. Even with both being top-16 in preventing attempts, it hasn't made a huge difference.
• Dating back to the start of 2025, Houston’s home games are 36-50-2 to the over, according to TeamRankings.

Lock in your Warriors vs. Rockets prediction on PrizePicks before tip-off.

Warriors vs. Rockets Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/11/26

Our top Warriors vs. Rockets player picks for Wednesday, November 11 on PrizePicks include projections for Fred VanVleet and Yaxel Lendeborg.

Rockets G Fred VanVleet vs. Warriors: 16.5 Pts + Asts

• Partly due to double-digit results in seven of his 11 contests, VanVleet is averaging just 30.0 minutes per game compared to 35.2 in 2024-25. He’s posted 15.0 points and 5.5 assists per game when playing at least 32 minutes this year.
• VanVleet’s 18.3% usage rate is tied for third among Rockets starters.
• Golden State is allowing the 10th-most points and eighth-most assists per game to opposing PGs, per FantasyPros.

Add Fred VanVleet + Rockets to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Warriors F Yaxel Lendeborg vs. Rockets: 25.5 Pts + Rebs

• Houston allows the 12th-fewest PPG within 10 feet of the basket. Lendeborg leads the Warriors in FGA per game inside 10 feet (6.9).
• The rookie’s 48.1% contested rebounding rate is seventh in the NBA right now, which might be bound to regress considering 12 of the top 15 players are bigs that are at least 6’10” tall.
• The Rockets are seventh in total rebounding rate (52.5%) and allow the sixth-fewest rebounds per game to opposing SFs (7.0).

Add Yaxel Lendeborg + Warriors to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Warriors vs. Rockets Picks on PrizePicks

Can Curry and the Warriors show this recent winning streak is a sign of things to come, or will Kevin Durant get the best of his old team and keep the Rockets unbeaten on this homestand?

Don't wait until tip-off — make your Warriors vs. Rockets picks on PrizePicks now!

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