American Frances Tiafoe will be in action on Friday night for his third-round match at the US Open. He’ll face world No. 23 Valentin Vacherot, a player who was in poor form before arriving in New York but has bounced back to reach this stage. Who advances in this top-30 matchup?
Below, we’ll break down our Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Friday’s match now!
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Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Third Round
Below are the payouts for who will win Friday’s Vacherot vs. Tiafoe match, via PrizePicks.
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Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe US Open Prediction – Friday, September 4
Match Winner Payouts: Vacherot 2.5x | Tiafoe 1.49x
Tournament Round: Third Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Vacherot 16-13 | Tiafoe 37-16
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN2
Frances Tiafoe is fresh off a competitive three-set win over Rei Sakamoto, a welcome result for the American after going the distance in his opening match.
Tiafoe has now won seven of his last eight matches dating back to his run to the Cincinnati Open final, where he defeated Learner Tien, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti, and Brandon Nakashima. All four of those opponents currently rank inside the top 20.
He’ll take on Valentin Vacherot in the third round, who’s actually playing in his first US Open main draw.
Vacherot had his season derailed when he was forced to withdraw from the French Open with a foot injury, causing him to miss the entire grass swing. After a two-month layoff, he won his first match back in Gstaad but then lost his next four before arriving at the US Open.
Despite his less-than-ideal circumstances, Vacherot opened his run with a straight-sets win over Aleksandar Kovacevic, then knocked out Kamil Majchrzak in four sets.
However, even with those wins, Vacherot is just 12-9 in hard-court matches this season, and he’s won more than two consecutive matches only once all season.
Between the 27-year-old’s post-injury struggles, mediocre 2026 record, and lack of Grand Slam experience, he has a lot working against him, particularly against an American who thrives on the energy of the New York crowd.
Ultimately, Tiafoe has played well enough of late to be a deserving favorite. According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Tiafoe is pegged for a 66.9% win probability.
Make your Vacherot vs. Tiafoe US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe for the US Open on Friday
Vacherot vs. Tiafoe Pick – 40.5 Total Games
Tiafoe could have a difficult time finding break opportunities against Vacherot. On hard courts this year, Vacherot has won 68.9% of his service points and posted a 16.0% ace rate. Those marks rank 10th and fourth, respectively, among the top 50 players.
Vacherot racked up 14 and 17 aces in the first two rounds.
Further, Tiafoe has also been aced 13.5% of the time on hard courts in 2026, the second-worst mark among the top 50 players.
However, Vacherot could have an equally difficult time finding break points. He’s won just 32.3% of his return points, the fifth-worst mark among the top 50 players. That suggests we could be in for some long, drawn-out sets and perhaps even a tiebreak or two.
Out of Tiafoe’s 12 Grand Slam matches this year, just three have finished in straight sets.
Pick Tiafoe to win + total games won on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Frances Tiafoe is a two-time US Open semifinalist and is hoping to make another run to the second week. Can he keep his hopes alive and advance past Valentin Vacherot on Friday night?
Don’t wait until Friday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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