Following a 5-3 victory over Mexico on Monday night, Team USA will close out pool play vs. Italy in the World Baseball Classic on Tuesday at Daikin Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET, live on FOX, with Team USA entering as massive 5.5-run favorites.
With a 3-0 record up to this point, USA baseball in the driver’s seat in Pool B for a spot in the WBC quarterfinals — and a win over Italy would officially punch their ticket.
While Italy baseball is 2-0 in pool play so far, they still have to face Team USA and Mexico over the next two days. Both the United States and Mexico lead Pool B with a +20 run differential, while Italy has outscored their opponents 15-4 across their first two matchups.
Below, we’ll discuss our USA vs. Italy prediction and WBC picks for Tuesday night’s game. Make your WBC picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, run lines, and totals!
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USA vs. Italy Baseball Prediction, Run Line, Over/Under for 2026 WBC
Team USA hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down this tournament, scoring the second-most runs (29) among teams that have played three games already.
There’s no shortage of talent for the United States, who boast an electric lineup that features OF Aaron Judge, SS Bobby Witt Jr., 1B Bryce Harper, and DH Kyle Schwarber at the top of the order.
Although Team USA’s roster — which we ranked No. 1 in the 2026 WBC — is littered with MLB talent, Italy also deploys a handful of players from MLB squads.
Most notably, Italy has 1B Vinnie Pasquantino (116 wRC+ in 2025 MLB), OF Jac Caglianone (186 wRC+ in 2025 AAA), OF Dominic Canzone (141 wRC+ in 2025 MLB), and OF Jakob Marsee (133 WRC+ in 2025 MLB) providing plenty of offensive firepower.
Before edging out a two-run victory over Mexico, Team USA cruised to wins over Brazil and Great Britain, defeating both teams by at least eight runs. Meanwhile, Italy took down Brazil by the score of 8-0 before beating Great Britain by three runs in their most recent contest.
USA vs. Italy Run Line, Over/Under, Payouts – 3/10/26
Team USA enters Tuesday’s WBC game as 5.5-run favorites on the run line, returning a 1.06x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Team Italy is a massive underdog with a 7.69x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Run Line: USA -5.5
- Over/Under: 11.5 (1.75x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: USA 1.05x | Italy 7.69x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
USA vs. Italy Prediction for World Baseball Classic – Tuesday, March 10
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your USA vs. Italy prediction on the 11.5-run over/under for Tuesday, March 10, on PrizePicks.
- The United States has had eight-plus runs scored in each of its first three pool games, and they’ve supplied nine-plus runs offensively in two of those contests.
- Team Italy has also had at least eight runs scored in each of their first two pool games, contributing seven-plus runs in both outings.
- Rockies SP Michael Lorenzen is currently expected to take the mound for Italy tonight.
- Lorenzen has sported a 4.48 xERA or worse in three consecutive MLB seasons.
- Lorenzen is also coming off a 2025 campaign where he tallied a career-worst 1.59 HR/9 ahead of facing a USA lineup that has three of the top four home run hitters from the 2025 season in Raleigh, Schwarber, and Judge.
- Both Team USA and Italy have delivered at least eight hits in each of their games so far.
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Team USA Preview vs. Italy
- OF Aaron Judge continues to deliver as the captain of Team USA, with his Hits + Runs + RBIs projection sitting at 2.5 for Tuesday’s game, via PrizePicks.
- Judge is tied for the second-most HRs (2), second-most barrels (4), and eighth-most RBIs (5) in the WBC.
- USA SP Nolan McLean is expected to make his World Baseball Classic debut.
- The 24-year-old Mets starter had a 3.56 xERA and 30.3% strikeout rate across 48.0 IP in 2025.
- As either the leadoff or cleanup hitter in each of the team’s first three games, OF Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least 1 hit in each outing.
- Schwarber’s hits projection is currently set at 0.5 on PrizePicks, as a Goblin projection.
Team Italy Preview vs. USA
- Despite going hitless in Italy’s last pool game, OF Dominic Canzone has hit cleanup in each of the first two contests.
- Canzone had a multi-hit outing in Italy’s opener, including a homer, and his hits projection is set at 0.5 on PrizePicks as a Goblin projection.
- Among players with 5-plus plate appearances in the World Baseball Classic, OF Dante Nori possesses the second-best wOBA (.939) and fourth-best OBP (.778).
- Besides having the experience of RP Adam Ottavino, Italy’s bullpen notably consists of RP Matt Festa (3.56 xERA) and Ron Marinnacio (1.83 xERA).
Make Your USA vs. Italy Baseball Prediction on PrizePicks
With Team USA setting its sights on a championship in this year’s World Baseball Classic, Team Italy is looking to play spoiler on Tuesday. A win by the United States would clinch the top spot in the pool and a spot in the quarterfinals, so we shouldn’t expect them to take their foot off the gas pedal in this one.
You can make your USA vs. Italy picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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