On Tuesday night, the blockbuster 2026 World Baseball Classic comes to an end with a championship between USA vs. Venezuela at LoanDepot Park in Miami at 8 p.m. ET, live on FOX.
After surviving the knockout stage, the loaded Team USA squad collides with a Venezuelan juggernaut team that took out Japan and Italy to reach the championship.
Despite looking highly vulnerable in the pool play of this tournament, USA enters this 2026 WBC finals matchup as the favorite for tonight's championship game, as the Americans seek their second WBC championship.
Let’s look at our USA vs. Venezuela baseball prediction and World Baseball Classic final pick for Tuesday, March 17, with analysis on both team lineups.
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USA vs. Venezuela Baseball Prediction, Preview for 2026 WBC Championship
Venezuela enters Tuesday's WBC Final riding a wave of momentum, having gone 5-1 through the tournament — the same record as Team USA. Their lone blemish was a narrow 7-5 defeat against the Dominican Republic in pool play.
The Venezuelans have outscored opponents 34-17 across five games, with their pitching staff posting a 3.20 ERA — second-best among teams remaining in the tournament.
This is Venezuela's first-ever appearance in a World Baseball Classic Final, and they've leaned on a spine of elite MLB talent to get here.
OF Ronald Acuna Jr., 1B Luis Arraez, and 3B Maikel Garcia form one of the most dynamic offensive units in the tournament. Arraez alone has been a nightmare matchup for opposing pitchers, slashing .348 with 4 doubles, 2 HRs, and 10 RBIs, while Garcia — has been a consistent contact hitter at the heart of the lineup.
The USA vs. Venezuela pitching matchup sets the stage for a fascinating chess match.
Team USA will deploy New York Mets rookie RHP Nolan McLean, the 24-year-old who posted a 2.06 ERA over 48 innings in his MLB debut last season. McLean's pitch count will be around 65-70 pitches.
McLean's only WBC start was shaky — he surrendered 3 ERs in 3 innings against Italy, with 2 HRs doing the damage — but manager Mark DeRosa is betting big on his young arm bouncing back on the biggest stage.
Venezuela counters with veteran LHP Eduardo Rodriguez of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who also had a rough outing in the tournament's only loss for Venezuela, giving up 3 runs in 2.2 innings against the Dominican Republic.
Plenty of hitters in the USA lineup bring a wealth of experience and success vs. Rodriguez.
Both starters share the same storyline — one rough outing, one chance at redemption, on a massive stage. However, both pitchers may have short leashes, especially with a well-rested USA bullpen behind McLean.
USA vs. Venezuela Run Line, Over/Under, Winner Payout - 3/17/26
Venezuela enters Tuesday's World Baseball Classic finals as the underdogs, returning a 3.03x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
USA is the 1.5-run favorites and returns a 1.35x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
Run Line: USA -1.5 (1.78x payout)
Over/Under: 8.5 (1.72x payout on over)
Game Winner Payout: USA 1.35x | Venezuela 3.03x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
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USA vs. Venezuela on Run Line for WBC Final Today
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your USA vs. Venezuela WBC final prediction on the run line for Tuesday, March 17, on PrizePicks.
- The USA has a rest advantage in this game, as they last played on Sunday, while Venezuela played on Monday night vs. Italy.
- That may impact these teams' bullpens, but more so for Venezuels, who threw six different pitchers out of the bullpen last night vs. Italy — although four of them didn't go more than an inning (three of which were clean).
- Venezuela's 1B Luis Arraez is the hottest hitter in this WBC, entering the final with a .348/.385/.783 slash line and a tournament-record 12 total bases in a single game.
- Venezuela 3B and catalyst Maikel Garcia is batting .435 with a .458 OBP, .652 SLG, and a 1.110 OPS across the tournament.
- Garcia is leading all Venezuelan hitters with 8 hits while also pacing the squad with 3 stolen bases.
- Garcia's RBI single in the seventh inning Monday against Italy ultimately proved to be the go-ahead hit that sent Venezuela to its first-ever WBC Final.
- USA SP Nolan McLean is set to make his second World Baseball Classic start in Tuesday's championship game.
- McLean, the 24-year-old Mets right-hander, allowed 3 earned runs on 2 hits with 2 HRs and 4 strikeouts in 3 innings in USA’s 8-6 loss to Italy in his last start.
- OF Roman Anthony has been Team USA's most productive bat in the tournament, slashing .318/.423/.591 with 2 HR and a team-best 7 RBIs in 6 games.
- Anthony's go-ahead solo home run vs. Dominican Republic RP Gregory Soto in Sunday's semifinal was the decisive margin in a 2-1 victory.
- Team USA's top reliever Mason Miller will be available to pitch tonight. He has not allowed a hit in the WBC. However, USA will be without David Bednar.
- Meanwhile, Venezuela's pen has been its backbone all tournament — most recently stranding a 5-0 Japan deficit by tossing 6.1 consecutive scoreless innings to complete the 8-5 quarterfinal comeback over the defending WBC champions.
Make Your USA vs. Venezuela Prediction on PrizePicks
Get ready for a monumental showdown in Miami when USA vs. Venezuela square off tonight with the 2026 World Baseball Classic championship on the line.
You can make your USA vs. Venezuela WBC picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, run lines, and teams to win the tournament, now available in 35 states.
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