On Monday, Carlos Alcaraz will compete in his first singles match since April and aims to shake off the rust against Roman Safiullin. Meanwhile, Arthur Fils comes into the US Open in great form and draws an intriguing matchup with Stefanos Tsitsipas, while Stan Wawrinka takes on Matteo Berrettini in his final US Open.
Below, we’ll break down our top tennis predictions for Monday’s US Open matches, including winner payouts, key stats, and match predictions for PrizePicks.
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US Open Predictions, Picks Today – Monday, August 31
Before we get into our tennis predictions for Monday, here’s a quick look at the matches we’re focusing on and the consensus favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can pick winners on each match.
Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Arthur Fils US Open Prediction – Monday, August 31
Match Winner Payouts: Tsitsipas 4x | Fils 1.2x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Tsitsipas 25-19 | Fils 32-10
Head-to-Head Record: Fils leads 5-0
Scheduled Time: 11 a.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Arthur Fils comes into the US Open flying high after winning the Cincinnati Open, his first Masters 1000 title.
Injuries have caused Fils to miss good chunks of his 2026 campaign, but he’s performed well when healthy, and the Frenchman could now be peaking at just the right time to make a deep run at this US Open.
Fils enters this match with a rock-solid 22-7 record on hard courts for the year, and he’ll face an opponent who’s struggled to find answers against him.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is 0-5 against Fils, and their most recent meeting at the 2026 Miami Open was incredibly one-sided, with Fils coasting to a 6-0, 6-1 victory in under an hour.
While Tsitsipas gained some confidence by winning a clay title in Gstaad last month, it’s otherwise been a middling season for the former world No. 3, who now sits outside the top 50.
Tsitsipas has also struggled mightily in majors since the second half of 2024, failing to advance past the second round in nine straight Grand Slams. He’s never had much success in New York, either, falling in the third round or earlier in all nine US Opens he’s played.
Unfortunately for Tsitsipas, running into an in-form Fils in the opening round is unlikely to change his fortunes. According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Fils is seeing a 79.5% chance of victory.
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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Arthur Fils Pick for the US Open on Monday
Fils has won eight of nine completed sets against Tsitsipas. He’s also won all three matches on hard courts in straight sets.
The Frenchman is a perfect 10-0 on hard courts against players ranked outside the top 50 this year.
Dating back to April, Tsitsipas has lost five straight matches to top-20 opponents.
According to Tennis Data Innovations, Fils boasts both the fifth-best forehand quality and the fifth-best backhand quality over the past 52 weeks. In contrast, while Tsitsipas is 17th in forehand quality, his backhand quality ranks 90th and falls below the tour average.
Tsitsipas vs. Fils Pick – 36.5 Total Games
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Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz US Open Prediction – Monday, August 31
Match Winner Payouts: Safiullin 4.54x | Alcaraz 1.16x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Safiullin 3-4 | Alcaraz 22-3
Head-to-Head Record: Tied 1-1
Scheduled Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Carlos Alcaraz makes his long-awaited return to singles play on Monday, and he’s unsurprisingly a heavy favorite against Roman Safiullin.
Given that we haven’t seen Alcaraz play a competitive singles match since April, it’s unclear where his level will be, and wrist injuries can be particularly challenging for tennis players to return from.
It probably doesn’t hurt that Alcaraz competed in mixed doubles with Serena Williams last week, giving him a bit of a warm-up before the main event. While it’s tough to draw too many conclusions from his play, he managed to provide his share of highlights.
Before his injury, Alcaraz opened the year on fire, going on a 16-match win streak while claiming his first Australian Open title and an additional title in Doha. Although it’s fair to expect a drop-off in form compared to that stretch, if we see anywhere close to that version of Alcaraz, the rest of the field is in trouble.
As for Safiullin, he suffered a hip injury following last year’s US Open, sidelining him for roughly six months and knocking him outside the top 100. As a result, he’s spent most of this season playing Challenger events to work his way back up the rankings, leaving him with only a handful of tour-level matches.
That being said, he’s a former top-40 player and recently made waves as a qualifier in Wimbledon, reaching the round of 16 with victories over Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca. Safiullin has also split the head-to-head 1-1 with Alcaraz, so he’s less likely to be intimidated by the player across the net.
Still, Safiullin hasn’t made much noise since his Wimbledon run and actually comes into the event on a two-match losing streak, most recently losing to world No. 255 Hugo Grenier at Winston-Salem. That’s not exactly the level you’re looking for to topple Alcaraz, the defending US Open champion.
Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings show a wide gap between the two players, too, as Alcaraz is projected for an 82.6% win probability.
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Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Pick for the US Open on Monday
Over his career, Safiullin has won just 44.0% of his tour-level hard-court matches. He’s 3-5 on the surface across all levels in 2026 despite facing only players ranked outside the top 50. He’s never advanced past the second round at the US Open, either.
Dating back to 2024, Safiullin has lost nine straight matches to top-10 players. Over that span, he’s also just 4-14 versus top-20 players.
Alcaraz is 5-0 versus players ranked outside the top 50 this season, and he’s won all five matches in straight sets. Two of those wins came in best-of-five matches at the Australian Open.
Safiullin vs. Alcaraz Pick – 36.5 Total Games
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Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka US Open Prediction – Monday, August 31
Match Winner Payouts: Berrettini 1.2x | Wawrinka 4.16x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Berrettini 15-13 | Wawrinka 7-15
Head-to-Head Record: Berrettini leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: 1:20 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
With Stan Wawrinka planning to retire at the end of the season, he’s playing in what could be his final US Open match. In fact, it initially looked like Wawrinka wouldn’t be competing at the US Open at all after he was snubbed for a wild card, but a last-minute injury opened up a spot for the 2016 US Open champ.
The 41-year-old is far removed from the player who managed to win three major titles during the peak “Big Three” era. He hasn’t advanced past the third round at a Grand Slam since the 2020 Australian Open, and he’s in the midst of his third straight season with a losing record. Across all levels, he’s won only three of his last 15 matches.
Despite all this, Wawrinka can still bring it occasionally, and he did exactly that when he faced Matteo Berrettini for the first time at this year’s Wimbledon. While Berrettini ultimately prevailed, what unfolded was a marathon 6-7(7), 7-6(16), 7-6(7), 7-6(5) four-setter that lasted four hours and 20 minutes.
Berrettini has been plagued by injuries over the years, and while the 30-year-old’s season has been a mixed bag overall, a run to the French Open quarterfinals has helped push him back inside the top 50. However, he reached just the third round at Wimbledon, and he suffered early exits in both Montreal and Cincinnati in his summer hard-court tournaments.
While neither player is in the best form, Wawrinka has been in a particularly bad funk as he nears the finish line of a storied career. Tennis Abstract gives Berrettini a 71.8% chance to win.
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Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka Pick for the US Open on Monday
When these two faced off at Wimbledon, their match totaled 52 games without even going five sets.
Five of Berrettini’s seven completed Grand Slam matches this year have gone at least four sets. Likewise, all five of Wawrinka’s Grand Slam matches have reached four or five sets.
While Berrettini went just 1-2 in his hard-court tune-up events, all three of his matches went to a deciding third set.
Six of Wawrinka's seven tour-level wins have come on hard courts this season, and he has a more passable 6-8 record on the surface.
Berrettini vs. Wawrinka Pick – 39.5 Total Games
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Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Carlos Alcaraz makes his return to singles competition on Monday following a long layoff. Can Roman Safiullin take advantage if Alcaraz gets off to a slow start?
Don’t wait until Monday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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