The US Open main draw gets underway with the first round on Sunday. During the day session, we’ll see Americans Jessica Pegula and Tommy Paul in action, and 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev will also take the court as he looks to shake off a disappointing summer.
Below, we’ll break down our top tennis predictions for Sunday’s US Open matches, including winner payouts, key stats, and match predictions for PrizePicks.
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US Open Predictions, Picks Today – Sunday, August 30
Before we get into our tennis predictions for Sunday, here’s a quick look at the matches we’re focusing on and the consensus favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks—where you can pick winners on each match.
Tennis on PrizePicks just got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Jessica Pegula vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Prediction – Sunday, August 30
Match Winner Payouts: Pegula 1.06x | Ruse 7.69x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Pegula 45-12 | Ruse 23-19
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ABC/ESPN/ESPN2
Jessica Pegula enters the US Open on the heels of a strong summer on hard courts, going 10-2 across three tournaments and finishing runner-up in both Cincinnati and Washington.
That should give Pegula extra confidence at an event where she’s used to making deep runs. The world No. 3 has reached at least the round of 16 in each of the past four US Opens, which includes finishing as a finalist in 2024 and as a semifinalist last year.
In contrast, Elena-Gabriela Ruse failed to make much noise in her tune-up events, falling in the second round at both Toronto and Cincinnati. She also retired from her last match in Cincinnati against Alexandra Eala due to a foot issue, and while she’s had roughly two weeks to recover, the timing certainly wasn’t ideal.
Ruse enters the US Open ranked outside the top 50 and is just 11-10 across all levels on hard courts this season. The 28-year-old has also seen limited success in majors, advancing past the second round only twice in her career.
While these two have never played each other, Pegula has the far better long- and short-term resume and appears to be a deserving heavy favorite.
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Jessica Pegula vs. Elana-Gabriela Ruse Pick for the US Open on Sunday
Pegula vs. Ruse Pick – 23 Fantasy Score
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
Pegula is 15-1 versus players ranked outside the top 50 this year. Out of those 15 victories, only two have gone to a deciding third set.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Pegula ranks as the fifth-best player on hard courts. Ruse checks in at 58th. As a result, Pegula is projected to win 86.0% of the time.
On hard courts in 2026, Pegula has won 62.4% of her service points and 45.1% of her return points, compared with 55.2% and 42.3%, respectively, for Ruse.
Over her career, Ruse is 4-27 versus top-20 opponents.
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Coleman Wong vs. Tommy Paul US Open Prediction – Sunday, August 30
Match Winner Payouts: Wong 5x | Paul 1.14x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Wong 8-8 | Paul 36-16
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ABC/ESPN/ESPN2
While Tommy Paul has reached at least the quarterfinals at the other three majors, he’s curiously never advanced beyond the fourth round at the US Open despite carrying home-court advantage as an American.
Paul was having a rather unremarkable summer on hard courts following early exits in Washington and Montreal, though he did bounce back a bit with a run to the quarterfinals at the Cincinnati Open. Most notably, he earned a victory over 2026 French Open champion and Wimbledon finalist Alexander Zverev.
He’ll open his US Open against qualifier Coleman Wong, a player ranked just inside the top 100.
Wong has competed primarily on the Challenger circuit in 2026, and he’s produced a mediocre 34-28 record across all levels. The 22-year-old is just 8-8 in tour-level matches, though he did reach the semifinals at Los Cabos, an ATP 250 tournament, about a month ago, picking up a top-20 win over Jiri Lehecka along the way.
While the win over Lehecka is notable, Wong simply hasn’t faced high-ranked players very often so far in his career and is 6-10 lifetime versus top-50 players. This will also be just his fifth main-draw match in a major, underscoring his limited experience in best-of-five formats.
Paul might not have the best track record at the US Open, but he’s survived multiple rounds in each of the last four years. As the world No. 21, he ought to be able to take care of business against Wong.
Make your Wong vs. Paul US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
Coleman Wong vs. Tommy Paul Pick for the US Open on Sunday
Wong vs. Paul Pick – 3.5 Total Sets
Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings place Paul 17th on hard courts, while Wong is 122nd. The American is projected for an 85.1% win probability.
Paul has won 77% of his matches versus players ranked outside the top 50 this season. He’s 5-0 against players ranked outside the top 100, too. Wong is right on the border as the world No. 94.
Before Wong’s win over Lehecka in Los Cabos, he had lost four straight matches to top-50 opponents.
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Daniil Medvedev vs. Hugo Gaston US Open Prediction – Sunday, August 30
Match Winner Payouts: Medvedev 1.09x | Gaston 5.88x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Medvedev 31-14 | Gaston 4-8
Head-to-Head Record: Medvedev leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ABC/ESPN/ESPN2
Daniil Medvedev remains ranked inside the top 10, but he comes into the US Open in wretched form after dropping four of his last five matches.
Following early exits in Montreal and Cincinnati, Medvedev entered the Winston-Salem Open—an event top players typically skip—to get more hard-court wins under his belt. Instead, he suffered a straight-sets loss to Martin Damm, prompting a classic Medvedev monologue about a potential career change.
It’s been that kind of rut for the mercurial 30-year-old, who hasn’t won more than two matches in a row since his run to the Italian Open semifinals in May.
Medvedev has also struggled to make waves at the Grand Slams of late. Dating back to 2025, he hasn’t made it past the fourth round in his last seven majors, including four first-round exits over that span.
Still, hard courts are typically where Medvedev thrives (73.0% career win rate), and he was successful earlier in the season, winning titles in Brisbane and Dubai while also finishing runner-up in Indian Wells.
On paper, qualifier Hugo Gaston isn’t a player who should trouble Medvedev much, either.
The Frenchman has spent the majority of the season competing in Challenger events, amassing a paltry 4-8 tour-level record. Even across all levels, he came to New York with a 26-24 record, so it’s not like he’s been consistently crushing it in the lower levels.
Despite Medvedev’s recent cold streak in Grand Slams, he’s a six-time major finalist and won the US Open in 2021. On the other hand, Gaston has advanced past the second round in a major just twice in his career and has never reached the quarterfinals.
Medvedev has really struggled the last few months, and there’s always the worry he self-destructs against Gaston on Sunday. That being said, we’re still talking about one of the tour’s best hard-court players, and he’ll really have to drop his level to lose this match.
Make your Medvedev vs. Gaston US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Daniil Medvedev vs. Hugo Gaston Pick for the US Open on Sunday
Medvedev vs. Gaston Pick – 31.5 Total Games
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Medvedev ranks ninth on hard courts, whereas Gaston is 123rd. Medvedev is showing a 90.3% chance of victory.
Gaston is 1-5 in his career versus top-10 opponents. That includes losing in straight sets to Medvedev at the Paris Masters in 2021, which remains their only previous meeting. Dating back to 2025, Gaston has also lost his last four matches versus top-20 players.
Over his career, Gaston has won only 33.8% of his tour-level matches on hard courts.
Across his 12 tour-level matches this season, Gaston has won 58.0% of his service points. That’s the worst mark among the top 100 players.
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Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
The final Grand Slam of the year begins on Sunday. Will Jessica Pegula, Tommy Paul, and Daniil Medvedev all advance as sizable favorites, or could any of them find themselves on upset alert?
Don’t wait until Sunday’s matches start—make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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