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Friday marks the beginning of the third round at the US Open, and Americans Jessica Pegula, Tommy Paul, and Emma Navarro will all be competing in the day session.
We’ll get a battle of former US Open finalists between Pegula and Leylah Fernandez, while both Paul and Navarro draw tricky opponents in Alexander Bublik and Karolina Muchova, respectively.
Below, we’ll break down our top tennis predictions for Thursday’s US Open matches, including winner payouts, key stats, and match predictions for PrizePicks.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Friday’s matches now!
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US Open Predictions, Picks Today – Friday, September 4
Before we get into our tennis predictions for Friday, here’s a quick look at the matches we’re focusing on and the consensus favorites on PrizePicks — where you can pick winners on each match.
Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Fernandez US Open Prediction – Friday, September 4
Match Winner Payouts: Pegula 1.13x | Fernandez 5.26x
Tournament Round: Third Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Pegula 45-12 | Fernandez 15-22
Head-to-Head Record: Pegula leads 3-1
Scheduled Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Jessica Pegula has cruised through the first two rounds in straight sets, most recently knocking out Sofia Kenin 6-3, 6-1 in under an hour. She dominated Kenin across the board, winning 86% of her first-serve points, 78% of her second-serve points, and 46% of her return points.
While Pegula was expected to advance, her brutal efficiency in doing so is a great sign for her to reach the second week in New York. She hasn’t been broken in either of her first two matches, saving the lone break point she’s faced thus far.
The American now boasts a 31-7 record on hard courts this season, reaching at least the quarterfinals in seven of the eight hard-court tournaments she’s entered. She’s been knocking on the door at the US Open lately, too, finishing runner-up in 2024 and advancing to the semis last year.
World No. 33 Leylah Fernandez has also been on the cusp of winning this title, finishing as a US Open finalist in 2021. However, other than reaching the French Open quarterfinals in 2022, she’s otherwise failed to advance past the third round in any major since.
Despite her solid ranking, Fernandez is in the middle of a disappointing season that’s been littered with early exits. In fact, she was bounced in the first round at each of the other three majors before she finally broke that streak here in New York.
Although the Canadian has also coasted through her first two matches in straight sets, Pegula will represent a huge level up in competition. Fernandez is just 1-4 vs. top-10 players this year, and even if we expand out to the top 50, she’s only 6-14.
Considering Fernandez’s uneven form throughout the year, she may have a difficult time pulling off the upset against an in-form Pegula.
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Pegula wins this matchup on hard courts 83.4% of the time.
Make your Pegula vs. Fernandez US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Fernandez Pick for the US Open on Friday
Pegula has won three of four matches against Fernandez, and in their last encounter earlier this year, the American won 6-2, 6-2 in Miami.
On hard courts in 2026, Pegula has won 62.4% of her service points, which is the fifth-best mark among the top 50 players. Fernandez has won 59.0%.
The disparity is even greater on return, where Fernandez has won just 38.1% of return points, the lowest rate among the top 50 players. Pegula, by comparison, has won 45.1%.
Pegula has lost 12 times this year. Only one of those defeats came against a player who is currently ranked outside the top 20.
Fernandez is 2-9 against top-50 opponents on this surface this year. In those nine losses, eight were in straight sets.
Fernandez Pick – 8.5 Total Games Won
Pick Pegula to win + Fernandez total games won on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul US Open Prediction – Friday, September 4
Match Winner Payouts: Bublik 2.38x | Paul 1.53x
Tournament Round: Third Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Bublik 26-17 | Paul 36-16
Head-to-Head Record: Paul leads 3-1
Scheduled Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Despite facing two opponents hovering around No. 100 in the world rankings, it hasn’t been a straightforward path to the third round for Tommy Paul. The American needed four sets to get past Coleman Wong and Dino Prizmić despite both players having limited Grand Slam experience.
Paul will need to step up his game if he’s to get past world No. 16 Alexander Bublik.
While Bublik often comes off as an unserious goofball who would rather just mess with his opponents and entertain the crowd, he’s an incredibly dangerous opponent when he’s dialed in.
That’s the version of Bublik we’ve seen so far at the US Open, as he defeated J.J. Wolf 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 in the first round and then annihilated Adrian Mannarino 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 on Wednesday.
Considering Bublik skipped all the summer North American hard-court events and hadn’t played since a clay tournament in late July, his level so far is even more surprising.
Still, the 29-year-old has won 71% of his hard-court matches in 2026, including a title in Hong Kong to open the season. He’s also started to show better results at Grand Slams, reaching at least the fourth round in four of the past six.
Although Paul leads the head-to-head 3-1, Bublik won their last meeting, which just so happened to be at last year’s US Open.
According to the aforementioned Elo ratings, this could be a tight match, as Paul is showing just a 56.0% win probability against Bublik. Given the difference in form we’ve seen from the two through the first two rounds, that may open the door for Bublik to pull off the upset.
Make your Bublik vs. Paul US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Pick for the US Open on Friday
In his first two matches, Bublik has tallied 18 and 16 aces. This season on hard courts, he’s produced a 14.0% ace rate, which is the ninth-best mark among the top 50 players.
Per Tennis Data Innovations, Bublik’s serve rates sixth-best in shot quality over the past 52 weeks.
Across the four matches Bublik and Paul have played, both players have won at least one set in all four.
At the 2025 US Open, Bublik won 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-1 and racked up 22 aces. When they faced each other in Miami earlier that year, Bublik reached 19 aces over three sets.
On hard courts this year, Paul has been aced 9.6% of the time, which is worse than the average of the top 50 players (8.8%).
Bublik Pick – 16.5 Aces
Pick Bublik to win + aces on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
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Emma Navarro vs. Karolina Muchova US Open Prediction – Friday, September 4
Match Winner Payouts: Navarro 4x | Muchova 1.21x
Tournament Round: Third Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Navarro 21-19 | Muchova 35-9
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 1:50 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Emma Navarro got off to a poor start to this year before eventually being diagnosed with hypothyroidism, a condition that can cause fatigue, among other symptoms. She uncharacteristically opened the season 5-11, causing her to drop out of the top 30 for the first time since the start of 2024.
With her health getting treated, she broke through that slump in May, winning a WTA 500 title in Strasbourg. She later followed that with a mostly successful grass swing that included a runner-up finish in Nottingham.
However, her lead-up to the US Open was less positive, as she won only two matches across three North American events.
Given the roller coaster nature of her season, she arrived in New York with tempered expectations but has gutted through two straight three-setters to reach the third round. Making matters worse, both matches were disrupted by rain delays.
Her first-round match against Lois Boisson featured two tiebreaks and left her opponent seething after the loss.
Things aren’t about to get any easier for Navarro with 2026 Wimbledon runner-up Karolina Muchova up next.
In contrast to Navarro’s journey, Muchova has blitzed through her opening matches, taking out Sinja Kraus 6-3, 6-0 and then Katie Boulter 6-1, 6-0. Neither match lasted an hour.
Muchova didn’t play any matches between Wimbledon and the US Open, electing for rest following a “minor surgery.” Well, it’s safe to say she isn’t rusty following her break.
It looks like the Czech player has picked up right where she left off at Wimbledon, which could be bad news for Navarro. Tennis Abstract’s model gives a slight edge to Muchova, projecting a 55.1% win chance, but recent form firmly sides with her.
Make your Navarro vs. Muchova US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
Emma Navarro vs. Karolina Muchova Pick for the US Open on Friday
Incredibly, Muchova’s first two matches have gone just 15 and 13 total games.
Muchova is 20-4 on hard courts this season, which includes winning a title in Doha. All four losses were against top-five players.
Navarro barely escaped the first round 7-6(6), 6-7(1), 6-3 despite facing a struggling player ranked No. 237.
Muchova has won 63.3% of her service points on hard courts in 2026. That’s the fourth-best mark among the top 50 players.
Navarros vs. Muchova – 20.5 Total Games
Pick Muchova to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
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Make US Open Picks Today on PrizePicks
The third round gets underway at the US Open on Friday. Jessica Pegula and Tommy Paul come in as favorites, while Emma Navarro enters the day as an underdog. Which Americans will advance?
Don’t wait until Thursday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.
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