US Open Predictions for Keys vs. Korneeva, Fritz vs. Blanch – Tuesday, September 1 

The US Open first round wraps up on Tuesday. Americans Madison Keys and Taylor Fritz will both be in action during the day session, while Gael Monfils takes the court in the evening for what will be his final US Open.

Below, we’ll break down our top tennis predictions for Tuesday’s US Open matches, including winner payouts, key stats, and match predictions for PrizePicks.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Tuesday’s matches now!

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US Open Predictions, Picks Today – Tuesday, September 1

Before we get into our tennis predictions for Tuesday, here’s a quick look at the matches we’re focusing on and the consensus favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can pick winners on each match.

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Madison Keys vs. Alina Korneeva US Open Prediction – Tuesday, September 1

Match Winner Payouts: Keys 1.31x | Korneeva 3.22x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Keys 33-14 | Korneeva 37-14
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN

Madison Keys is in the midst of a solid season, reaching the round of 16 at the other three majors while also winning a WTA 250 title in Eastbourne. However, she’s drifted outside the top 20 due in part to losing points at both the Australian Open and French Open.

Keys began the North American hard-court swing with early losses in both Washington and Toronto, but she somewhat righted the ship in Cincinnati, advancing to the quarterfinals before falling to a red-hot Sara Bejlek in three sets. Bejlek also knocked off Aryna Sabalenka on her run to the semifinals.

Meanwhile, Alina Korneeva opened 2026 ranked outside the top 200, but she’s worked her way into the top 70 ahead of the US Open. This summer, she reached the semifinals in Athens and the round of 16 in Toronto. Those runs included notable wins over Ann Li, Emma Navarro, and Iva Jovic, all players presently ranked in the top 30. 

Given Korneeva’s recent form, she could give Keys a tough first-round test. That being said, the 19-year-old Russian is short on Grand Slam experience — this will be just her fourth appearance in a major main draw — and she’s facing someone who won the Australian Open just last year.

Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Keys remains the superior hard-court player and is showing a 64.0% chance of defeating Korneeva.   

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Madison Keys vs. Alina Korneeva Pick for the US Open on Tuesday

At Keys’ last tournament, her matches totaled 28, 16, 23, and 32 games.

Korneeva has held her own vs. top-50 players on hard courts this season, winning four of six matches. All of those matches have come on North American hard courts this summer, too.

In tour-level matches on hard courts this year, Keys has held a clear edge on serve, winning 60.4% of her service points compared to 54.6% for Korneeva. The Russian, however, has been far better on return, winning 54.9% of return points to Keys’ 43.5%.  

Tennis Abstract’s hard-court Elo ratings rank Korneeva 27th, suggesting she’s far more dangerous than her WTA ranking (69th) would suggest.

Keys vs. Korneeva Pick – 21.5 Total Games

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Taylor Fritz vs. Darwin Blanch US Open Prediction – Tuesday, September 1

Match Winner Payouts: Fritz 1.02x | Blanch 14.28x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Fritz 31-15 | Blanch 1-3
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN

Taylor Fritz is a massive favorite to advance past fellow American Darwin Blanch, and it’s easy to see why.

Blanch comes into the US Open in dismal form, as he’s riding a seven-match losing skid across all levels that dates back to early July. Worse yet, all seven defeats have come against players ranked well outside the top 50, with his highest-ranked opponent being world No. 85 Rinky Hijikata. 

The 18-year-old has primarily competed in Challenger events this season, yet he still carries a lackluster 18-22 record across all levels. Over his young career, he’s 0-2 vs. top-50 opponents and has never faced one ranked inside the top 30.

Fritz comes into the US Open ranked No. 10 in the world, and dating back to the beginning of grass season, he’s reached at least the quarterfinals in five of his last six events, including Wimbledon. This summer, he won the title in Washington, further reinforcing his excellent form.

Unfortunately for Blanch, this looks like a mismatch between two players at completely different stages of their careers. Tennis Abstract forecasts a 97.9% win probability for Fritz.   

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Taylor Fritz vs. Darwin Blanch Pick for the US Open on Tuesday

Blanch’s last four losses have all come in straight sets. His opponents in those defeats were ranked 108th, 99th, 175th, and 85th.

Fritz is 6-1 vs. players ranked outside the top 100 this year, with the lone loss coming on clay, easily his weakest surface. Across those six victories, he’s dropped just one set, and three of the straight-set wins came in Grand Slams.  

On hard courts in 2026, Fritz has won 70.6% of his service points, the fifth-best mark among the top 50 players. His 17.6% ace rate in that sample is the second-best figure.

Blanch has lost six of his eight tour-level matches on hard courts. Both wins came against players ranked outside the top 70.

Fritz vs. Blanch Pick – 31 Total Games

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Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Gael Monfils US Open Prediction – Tuesday, September 1

Match Winner Payouts: Vallejo 1.69x | Monfils 2.08x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Vallejo 13-11 | Monfils 4-9
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 7 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN2

Gael Monfils is set to retire at the end of this season, but he’ll have at least one more chance to wow the crowd at the US Open. The Frenchman turns 40 today, yet he may have already hit the shot of the tournament in mixed doubles last week.

Monfils’ signature athleticism still pops up in spurts, but as his 4-9 singles record shows, he’s struggled to win matches amidst a limited schedule. Despite that, he could have a chance against Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.

The 22-year-old Vallejo has played a very clay-heavy schedule this season and has only six tour-level hard-court matches under his belt, all of which have come this summer. He split those matches 3-3, though his most recent outing was a 6-2, 6-0 beatdown at the hands of Botic van de Zandschulp.

Overall, Vallejo has a middling 14-19 career record across all levels on this surface, with the vast majority of those matches coming against players ranked outside the top 100.

Three of Monfils’ four wins have come on hard courts this year, and he still ranks a respectable 38th on hard courts, per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings. While he went just 1-2 in his two events before coming to New York, both losses went to a deciding third set. One of those three-set defeats came against Learner Tien, who’s currently ranked 15th.

Although Vallejo got decent results from his string of hard-court matches, Tennis Abstract still ranks him 149th on the surface compared to 76th on clay. 

At his age, Monfils has been prone to running out of gas in lengthy matches, and that’s something that can’t be ruled out on Tuesday night. However, if his body holds up, his experience could win out against a clay specialist playing in his first-ever US Open. 

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Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Gael Monfils Pick for the US Open on Tuesday

In 2026, both of Monfils’ Grand Slam matches have gone four or more sets, resulting in 47 and 40 total games.

Monfils is a more passable 3-3 when facing players ranked outside the top 50 on hard courts this season.

Across Vallejo’s six summer hard-court matches, he’s produced a modest 6.5% ace rate paired with an elevated 7.4% double-fault rate. That could make him more prone to being broken on serve. 

However, Vallejo has also returned well, breaking his opponents 25.5% of the time in those matches. That could help him return the favor against Monfils, who's produced tour-average serve shot quality over the past 52 weeks, per Tennis Data Innovations.

Vallejo vs. Monfils Pick – 38.5 Total Games

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Make US Open Picks Today on PrizePicks

The first round concludes on Tuesday with Madison Keys, Taylor Fritz, and Gael Monfils among the notable names in action. Which players will advance to the next round?

Don’t wait until Tuesday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 36 states!

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