UFC Vegas 122 Predictions — Allen vs. Duncan & All Main Card Fights Tonight

Not many guys in the UFC are willing to fight backward in the rankings to stay active once. Brendan Allen said, “Give me two in one summer.”

The eccentric middleweight brawler who has represented all of Brazil, Canada, and his home state of Louisiana in the octagon is back with, arguably, the toughest test he’s faced in years. Accurate, measured kickboxer Christian Leroy Duncan is looking to extend his winning streak to six in the blue corner.

The UFC Vegas 122 main card features five fights, with Allen (1.78x) a slight favorite over Duncan (1.96x) in the main event, according to PrizePicks Team Picks payouts.

In the co-main event, Brazil’s Matheus Camilo will look to turn his upset win over Nazim Sadykhov earlier this summer into real momentum as he battles English boxer Jai Herbert.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan's main card starts Saturday evening at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC Vegas 122 predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Allen vs. Duncan and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Vegas 122 predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right on every fight, including on winners, method of victory, and more!

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UFC Vegas 122 Predictions for Allen vs. Duncan & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Vegas 122 predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan’s main card is expected to start at 8:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan — Middleweight
• Co-Main Event: Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert — Lightweight
• Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza  — Women’s Strawweight
• Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III — Featherweight
• Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi — Bantamweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Vegas 122 main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Brendan Allen 1.78x | Christian Leroy Duncan 1.96x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Allen vs. Duncan Model Results:

The middleweight title picture is murky, but one thing that’s very clear is that this is a must-win for both Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan to even have a seat at the table. In their 30s, this isn’t the time to move backward.

“All-In” Allen, presumably, sees activity as his path to a statement, as Nassourdine Imavov, Dricus Du Plessis, and others are sitting on their current resume. He fought an unranked Edmen Shahbazyan to a clear-but-competitive decision in June after his upset win over Reiner De Ridder late last year.

A stats guy like me will be hyperfixated on Allen’s -0.03 striking success rate (SSR), but that likely sells the willingness and toughness of his boxing short. He’s shined as a grappler, securing 1.52 takedowns and 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

The game plan against “CLD” will be pretty simple. Get him down.

Not many in this entire division want to stand with the Englishman. Beyond a four-inch reach edge, he’s absorbed just 2.36 significant strikes per minute with elite defense, and, yes, his total package (+2.09 SSR) is clearly superior to Allen at distance.

In some ways, Shahbazyan — standing at 6’2” — is a similar matchup to Duncan without quite the same iron-clad defense or resolve. Considering Allen’s -1 striking differential in that matchup, projecting him to win minutes on the feet here would be foolish.

But Duncan’s takedown defense (57%) has been dented before, including by Gregory Rodrigues inside the top 10. “Robocop” secured 4 of 12 takedown attempts against CLD, and Jared Cannonier secured 5 of 8 in Oklahoma City earlier this summer.

I have more confidence in the underdog making the necessary strides in the gym to stuff the shots and keep this fight in his office, but Allen is not one to count out if he's able to find the back.

Predict the Allen vs. Duncan winner at UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

Allen vs. Duncan Pick for UFC Fight Night

Allen vs. Duncan – 17.5 Minutes Fight Time

The model’s verdict of a full fight (51.8% projected) comes down to two factors: Allen’s durability and CLD’s patience.

Allen has lost just twice by (T)KO in 19 appearances, with the last coming in December 2021 to Chris Curtis. He avenged that Curtis loss in 2024, so improvement has definitely occurred.

Frankly, you can’t fight in the rankings for a half-decade with a 47% striking defense if you’re not tough.

Plus, Duncan is made out to be a ferocious finisher, but 5 of his 10 UFC fights have gone the distance, and his knockdown rate (0.64 KD%) is not elite. He just went the distance with a 42-year-old.

Make your Allen vs. Duncan pick for UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

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Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Matheus Camilo 1.49x | Jai Herbert 2.5x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

For as much as I like Matheus Camilo as a prospect, he might have larger fans in the UFC front office. His fourth UFC fight is headlining a co-main event in the red corner.

Training with Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, “Jaguar” is 2-1 in the UFC. He suffered a submission loss after a reversal of position by Gabe Green in his UFC debut, but he's now turned back multi-time promotional winners Viacheslav Borshchev and Nazim Sadykhov in consecutive bouts. The Sadykhov win was a statement:

The Brazilian is a potent power threat, but he also scored 5 takedowns against Borshchev when the standup wasn’t his advantage. He’s a well-rounded, developing prospect with one of the best coaches in the sport, Eric Nicksick, at just 25 years old.

Jai Herbert is a real test for his striking, though. “The Black Country Banger” has defied the odds to stick on the UFC roster with timely wins despite a 4-5-1 record. He’s faced elite competition like Renato Moicano and Ilia Topuria. 

In April at UFC Winnipeg, Herbert was dropped early by Contender Series alum Mandel Nallo, but he worked his way back into the fight within the same round to spoil the Canadian’s promotional debut:

Counting out Herbert (as I did in April) has occasionally proven to be incorrect, but I can’t get jazzed about a one-dimensional striker with a -0.15 SSR. Further, Camilo enters with an edge in striking accuracy (43%) and a 14 percentage-point advantage in striking defense (66%).

Camilo has had occasional lapses in endurance, but if he’s now built for 15 minutes of training at elevation, he might have the edge everywhere over the Englishman.

Predict the Camilo vs. Herbert winner at UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

Camilo vs. Herbert Pick for UFC Fight Night

Jai Herbert – 26.5 Significant Strikes

Herbert has been dropped 3 times in UFC, and part of that attrition can be an unwillingness to engage.

In over 107 octagon minutes, Herbert’s entire game plan is to strike, and he’s landed just 3.41 significant strikes per minute. It’s uninspiring volume against a younger, more durable opponent than Nallo was in April.

In three fights where Herbert’s opponent landed multiple takedowns, he's averaged just 23.67 total significant strikes. Jaguar enters securing 4.16 mat returns per 15 minutes.

Make your Camilo vs. Herbert pick for UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Loopy Godinez 1.38x | Ketlen Souza 2.85x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs.)

Godinez vs. Souza Model Results:

Welcome back to the main card, Lupita “Loopy” Godinez.

The ranked strawweight contender has settled for the prelims on four straight cards, but she’s looking to get back on track in a featured spot at UFC Vegas 122.

Godinez burst onto the scene with seven fights in less than two years to begin her UFC career in 2021, but she has now stalled to drop three of her last five bouts. When the losses are to Tatiana Suarez, Virna Jandiroba, and champion Mackenzie Dern, she’s really not that far away with a couple of nice wins.

The Mexican-born fighter is a technical, patient boxer with elite striking (62%) and takedown (76%) defense. She’s extremely difficult to dominate; Suarez’s Round 2 submission in April marked the first time she’s lost inside the distance as a pro.

This is a big leap for Ketlen Souza, so we’ll see if she can make a splash. Brazil’s “Esquentadinha” has fought inside the rankings twice, surrendering 9 takedowns in decision losses to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill. Her takedown defense (53%) has struggled.

But, she’s clearly shown a little firepower in highlight wins back outside the top 15:

Souza is fun, but her four wins over opponents are a combined 10-13 in UFC. Margins are often thin at women’s strawweight, but I’m skeptical she’s able to fly into the top 10 and upset Godinez when the longtime contender hasn’t been knocked out as a pro. 

Plus, Godinez, who attempts 7.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, has a similar skillset to Piera Rodriguez and can dictate where this fight takes place.

Predict the Godinez vs. Souza winner at UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

Godinez vs. Souza Pick for UFC Fight Night

Ketlen Souza –45.5 Significant Strikes

When Godinez, in the aforementioned interview, is discussing going back to a “drawing board,” the game plan may be obvious. Rodriguez, among others, had no issue taking Souza down, and I’m not forecasting Loopy will, either.

Even in championship-level losses to Dern, Suarez, and Jandiroba, she took those ladies down four times. Souza, a smaller strawweight with a consistent issue defending wrestling attempts, could look easy.

Now, can Godinez submit the black belt? That could be an intriguing storyline once this fight, inevitably, hits the mat.

Make your Godinez vs. Souza pick for UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

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Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Andre Fili 1.61x | Kai Kamaka III 2.17x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)

Fili vs. Kamaka III Model Results:

I saw an unnamed Twitter “engagement farmer” muse earlier this week on why this fight between Andre Fili and Kai Kamaka III even exists. Probably because these two regular “Fight of the Night” contenders seem primed for a banger.

Despite dropping four of his last six fights, there is no quit in Andre “Touchy” Fili, and that was evidence in one of the toughest, most insane performances I’ve ever seen as he absorbed (and survived) 104 significant strikes against Vinicius Oliveira in June before finally succumbing to the pressure:

As many UFC fighters would tell you, though, being known for your toughness isn’t ideal. It usually means you’re losing.

Overall, Fili’s -0.66 SSR has slipped at 36 years old. If you’re looking for a path to victory, it’s likely through one shot — as someone with 4 UFC knockouts in 13 wins — or with his wrestling. The Team Alpha Male product averages 2.24 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with solid efficiency (46%).

This is a much larger spotlight for Kai Kamaka III, who’s 1-1 in this second tenure with the promotion and had the misfortune of facing (and losing to) English striking sensation Luke Riley in July.

Kamaka III is a durable grinder whose striking accuracy (59%) and defense (55%) are both above average for the division. His -0.54 SSR is a product of often finding himself in brawls — like the one where he dispatched Dakota Hope earlier this year:

Fili, 13-13 in UFC, has such name recognition that many expect him to vault Kamaka III, but his best days are behind him, and the Hawaiian, 31, is in his prime and training at the aforementioned Xtreme Couture with Nicksick. Even off a loss to a stud prospect, the arrow is up.

The model respects Kamaka’s overall efficiency in this matchup, but the durable Fili is no easy out. This should be a great scrap.

Predict the Fili vs. Kamaka III winner at UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

Fili vs. Kamaka III Pick for UFC Fight Night

Kai Kamaka III – 68.5 Significant Strikes

Part of what made Riley’s first-round stoppage of Kamaka so special is that the underdog is usually around for the long haul.

Across his 27 pro fights, 19 have gone the full distance, and while his UFC competition has been spotty, this includes 10 high-level fights across Bellator and PFL, facing Brendan Loughnane, Bubba Jenkins, Jonathan Pearce, and more in his pro career.

In short, he’s faced some real killers. This isn’t really a level he’s not seen before, and Fili has no knockdowns in his last six fights and has never won in UFC via submission.

Kamaka III lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute, so it won’t take long to accumulate them if this fight has length to it.

Make your Fili vs. Kamaka III pick for UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

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Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Malcolm Wellmaker 1.44x | Otari Tanzilovi 2.63x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

This sport can be incredibly humbling, and bantamweight prospect Malcolm Wellmaker, once on divisional watchlists and highlight reels, has learned that in earnest over the last 12 months.

Twice in this period as a substantial favorite, Wellmaker has lost. Ethyn Ewing upset him at Madison Square Garden last fall on just a few days’ notice, and Peru’s Juan Diaz dominated him in all phases. That’s prompted a move to a real gym at American Top Team:

Wellmaker’s 2.10 KD% is mammoth power for this division’s standards, but he really struggled in deeper waters to find any variance in his strikes, and Diaz decimated what is now a mediocre 46% takedown defense. The latter might be the path for Georgia’s Otari Tanzilovi.

Tanzilovi’s path to UFC has been far from linear. He lost on the Contender Series with 4 takedowns in a split decision. As I mention weekly during DWCS predictions, there’s an entertainment factor to getting a contract from Dana White, and he didn’t have it.

So, he took a short-notice fight up in weight against Shane Collins in June. He secured 5 takedowns, but a -18 striking differential wasn’t enough to get his hand raised. The 28-year-old struggled badly with endurance in both appearances, so we’ll see if he’s sorted out his cardio entering this one.

Tanzilovi’s 49% striking defense is poor, and Collins and Musasa have combined for 0 UFC knockdowns. Though he should win minutes in this fight, I would be extremely careful taking flush punches from “The Machine” — especially as it's been retooled in a state-of-the-art training facility.

Predict the Wellmaker vs. Tanzilovi winner at UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

Wellmaker vs. Tanzilovi Pick for UFC Fight Night

Wellmaker vs. Tanzilovi – 12.5 Minutes Fight Time

Even venturing up to featherweight, Otari Tanzilovi hasn’t fought more or less than 15 minutes in both of his appearances.

That’s a stark contrast to Malcolm Wellmaker’s 6:15 average fight time. Though, he has seen at least 9 full minutes in two straight fights where he’s also failed to record a knockdown. That’s expected when stepping up in competition.

Overall, forecasting the length of Wellmaker’s latest appearance determines how you feel about Tanzilovi’s durability — especially later into fights. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the most measured, calculated version of the favorite yet after working on his fundamentals at ATT.

Make your Wellmaker vs. Tanzilovi pick for UFC Vegas 122 on PrizePicks.

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Fight Night: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

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Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks.

Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Vegas 122, headlined by Allen vs. Duncan, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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