The battle for the home run crown has become a tight race, as Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber leads with 39 home runs. He’s followed by nine players between 30 and 36 big flies on the season, and several are knocking on the door for 30 dingers—including Nationals DH CJ Abrams.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Wednesday, August 26, on PrizePicks now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Top Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, August 26
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Rockies C Hunter Goodman
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
- Mariners C Cal Raleigh
- Giants 1B Rafael Devers
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Nationals SS CJ Abrams
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Mariners C Cal Raleigh
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners – 4:10 p.m. ET
Phillies Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo (26 GS, 11-5, 2.92 xFIP, 28.1% hard-hit, 33.2 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed T-Mobile Park.
- After setting a career-high 60 home runs, paired with a strong .247/.359/.589 slash line last season, Cal Raleigh has fallen off a cliff with a .169/.286/.346 slash line and 18 HRs this season.
- In fact, Raleigh hasn’t been a participant in PrizePicks’ most popular home run predictions for most of the season. But after launching 4 big flies over his last 5 at-bats, Raleigh is blazing hot heading into Wednesday.
- Seattle’s catcher now has 7 long balls this month, contributing to a .516 SLG that smashes his .346 season-long mark.
- Frankly, Phillies SP Jesus Luzardo is a tough matchup with a 2.88 xERA and a 0.81 HR/9. His 28.1% hard-hit rate allowed is also well under the 34.2% league average, per FanGraphs.
- However, Luzardo allowed 2 home runs in his most recent starts. That led to a low 30.8% ground ball rate compared to his 48.2% season-long average. Raleigh still gets plenty of lift with his 58.8% fly ball rate, surpassing the 39.0% league average.
Add Cal Raleigh to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Nationals DH CJ Abrams
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals – 6:45 p.m. ET
Rockies Starting Pitcher: Tanner Gordon (6 GS, 0-4, 4.46 xFIP, 44.0% hard-hit, 48.0 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 84 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds out to LF
- CJ Abrams returned from an ankle injury on Monday, filling the designated hitter slot. In his two games since returning, Abrams has only 2 hits over 8 at-bats (.250).
- He’s experienced a cold spell with 1 big fly and a .333 SLG in August. Keep in mind Abrams touts 29 HRs and a .525 SLG on the season.
- Baseball Savant suggests he’s still dangerous in a few areas, including a .440 xSLG (73rd percentile) and a 10.1% barrel rate (66th percentile). Rockies SP Tanner Gordon gives up a 10.1% barrel rate (12th percentile) and a .473 xSLG compared to Abrams’ strong .440 mark.
- Gordon has started in only 6 of his 18 appearances this season. Over his previous three starts, he’s allowed 6 home runs.
- Despite allowing a total of 11 earned runs in those three starts, Gordon still pitched for at least 5.0 innings in each showing. That should give Abrams enough time to potentially take advantage of the matchup.
- Gordon primarily features a four-seam fastball (42.8%), slider (23.3%), and changeup (22.0%), and Abrams has launched 17 of his 29 HRs against those pitches.
- As the cherry on top, Ballpark Pal gives Nationals Park the fourth-highest home run factor today (+11%).
Add CJ Abrams to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals – 7:45 p.m. ET
Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Michael McGreevy (25 GS, 5-9, 4.17 xFIP, 38.9% hard-hit, 36.3 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 88 degrees, 12% chance of rain, and 5 mph winds out to RF
- Pete Alonso is putting a bow on an absurd month of baseball, sporting a .398/.451/.723 slash line while smashing 8 home runs in August.
- Baltimore’s first baseman is showing no signs of slowing down, with multiple hits in four of his five past outings. That’s fueled a .500 batting average and 2 taters over his previous five games.
- Cardinals SP Michael McGreevy ceded 3 runs in three consecutive starts, and he’s allowed 3 home runs over four starts in August.
- Furthermore, McGreevy’s 1.18 HR/9 is slightly above the 1.16 league average, while Baseball Savant gives the Cards’ starter a 9.9% barrel rate (13th percentile) and a 42.4% hard-hit rate allowed (19th percentile).
- Alonso boasts plenty of punch in his bat, featuring a .553 xSLG (98th percentile), 14.0% barrel rate (91st percentile), and 56.7% hard-hit rate (98th percentile).
Add Pete Alonso to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Cal Raleigh and Pete Alonso look to stay blazing hot, while CJ Abrams is in a slump this month. Raleigh likely carries the toughest matchup of the three, turning our heads to Alonso and Abrams for potential batters to go yard on Wednesday.
Don’t wait until the first pitch—make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
