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Severe storms across the country have cleared in time for Wednesday, August 12’s 15-game MLB schedule. The Orioles vs. Twins begin the day at 1:40 p.m. ET, while the Mariners vs. Yankees (7:00 p.m. ET) and the Rangers vs. Angels (10:00 p.m. ET) headline Wednesday as a doubleheader on ESPN.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Wednesday, August 12, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, August 12
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Rockies C Hunter Goodman
- Nationals SS CJ Abrams
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Brewers OF Jackson Chourio
- Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe
- Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Rays 3B Junior Caminero
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics – 3:05 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jack Perkins (10 GS, 2-8, 4.23 xFIP, 33.5% hard-hit, 46.8 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 80 degrees, clear skies, and 4 mph winds out to LF
- Following back-to-back games with home runs, Junior Caminero has reached 35 home runs on the season—putting him in a four-way tie for the top mark in baseball.
- A favorable setting aids his chances of taking sole possession of the lead, as Ballpark Pal assigns a +27% home run factor to Sutter Health Park (the highest).
- Additionally, Athletics SP Jack Perkins sports a 7.04 ERA, 4.04 xERA, and 1.76 HR/9.
- Perkins allows a 46.8% fly ball rate that’s well above the 39.0% league average, and that’s playing with fire against Caminero’s elite 27.6% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB)—smashing the 11.7% league average.
- Baseball Savant also credits Perkins with a 9.7% barrel rate allowed (17th percentile), while Caminero’s 14.0% barrel rate (89th percentile) and 79.8 average bat speed (100th percentile) further emphasize a favorable matchup.
Add Junior Caminero to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Brewers OF Jackson Chourio
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres – 4:10 p.m. ET
Padres Starting Pitcher: Robbie Ray (22 GS, 10-7, 4.80 xFIP, 31.2% hard-hit, 45.7 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 78 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds toward 1B
- Jackson Chourio is red-hot with a .324/.444/.676 slash line and 4 home runs over 11 games in August.
- He excels against left-handed pitchers, proven by a .311/.392/.533 compared to .267/.323/.462 when facing righties.
- The Padres will start SP Robbie Ray, and the left-handed hurler comes off a poor outing by allowing 7 hits and 4 earned runs over 5.0 innings pitched.
- Ray has a solid 1.13 HR/9 and 9.8% HR/FB allowed, but his 45.7% fly ball rate and 8.3% barrel rate allowed (40th percentile) draw clear concerns.
- Meanwhile, Chourio holds a strong 17.0% HR/FB that could thrive vs. Ray’s tendency to give up lift.
- A four-seam fastball (33.7%) tops Ray’s pitch usage, and Chourio rakes to the tune of .330 while slugging .617 against the pitch. In fact, 6 of his 17 home runs have come against four-seamers.
Add Jackson Chourio to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox – 7:40 p.m. ET
White Sox Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo (18 GS, 3-9, 4.43 xFIP, 35.6% hard-hit, 42.0 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 77 degrees, 13% chance of rain, and 5 mph winds out to RF
- White Sox SP Luis Castillo makes his second start with Chicago while facing his former team on Wednesday. Castillo stumbled by yielding 6 hits and 5 earned runs in his first White Sox start.
- The veteran righty has surrendered 8 home runs over his previous four starts, contributing to his 1.48 HR/9.
- Elly De La Cruz is a threat, posting 2 HRs over his previous five games. Plus, he boasts impressive slugging stats—including a .482 xSLG (86th percentile), 14.1% barrel rate (90th percentile), and 51.1% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile).
- Among his 20 big flies on the season, De La Cruz crushed 15 taters against four-seam fastballs and sliders. Castillo’s most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (44.3%) and slider (26.5%).
- In only 5 career at-bats against Castillo, Elly has 1 home run and a .800 SLG in the matchup.
Add Elly De La Cruz to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Junior Caminero looks to launch one over the fence for the third consecutive game, paired with the chance to take sole possession as MLB’s home run leader. Jackson Chourio and Elly De La Cruz are two rolling sluggers in the NL Central who could take advantage of favorable matchups today.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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