Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Tuesday, June 2

Tuesday, June 2’s MLB schedule includes a full 15-game slate, headlined by a primetime meeting between the Padres and Phillies at 6:40 p.m. ET on TBS. Sluggers are heating up as the weather warms, including Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz and Mets OF Juan Soto. 

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Tuesday, June 2, on PrizePicks now.

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Tuesday, June 2

Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.

How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
2. Red Sox OF Jarren Duran
3. Yankees OF Aaron Judge
4. Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr. 
5. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
6. Mets OF Juan Soto
7. Twins OF Byron Buxton
8. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
9. Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
10. Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Red Sox 1B Jarren Duran

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – 6:45 p.m. ET

Orioles Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz (11 GS, 2-5, 4.32 xFIP, 34.7% hard-hit, 38.9% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, clear skies, and 4 mph winds toward home plate

• In the last six games, Jarren Duran has 11 hits over 28 at-bats (.393), including 4 home runs in the split.
• Duran’s 90.7 average exit velocity (77th percentile), 12.1% barrel rate (75th percentile), and 75.2 bat speed (86th percentile) are finally translating to some long balls.
• The Orioles will put SP Shane Baz on the mound tonight, and he’s yielded a 9.7% barrel rate (29th percentile) and 39.9% hard-hit rate (43rd percentile).
• Furthermore, Baz has given up a big fly in five of his last six starts.
• His most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (34.2%) and knuckle curve (33.3%), and Duran bats .272 and .314 against the pitches across his career.
• The left-handed hitting first baseman has launched 9 of his 10 dingers against righties, which applies to today’s duel with Baz.

Add Jarren Duran to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz

Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs – 8:05 p.m. ET

Cubs Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon (11 GS, 2-4, 4.68 xFIP, 37.6% hard-hit, 51.7% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 66 degrees, clear skies, and 10 mph winds toward home plate

• Cubs SP Jameson Taillon has struggled with a 5.27 xERA, 2.83 HR/9, and 20.4% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) allowed. His HR/9 and HR/FB are far above the 1.09 and 10.9% league averages.
• Over five starts in May, Taillon permitted 10 HRs, translating to 2.0 per appearance.
• Nick Kurtz could expose Taillon’s flaws, as the A’s first baseman boasts an 18.3% barrel rate (96th percentile), 58.0% hard-hit rate (98th percentile), and 78.0 bat speed (99th percentile). 
• While Kurtz has only 10 HRs on the season, he’s smashed 2 taters over his last three games. Positive regression may have hit for his .496 xSLG (86th percentile).
• The 23-year-old infielder carries an exceptional 22.2% HR/FB that could burn Taillon’s 51.7% fly ball rate allowed.
• The left-handed Kurtz is batting .297 with 7 HRs vs. righties, compared to .271 and 3 big flies against southpaws.

Add Nick Kurtz to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mets OF Juan Soto

New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners – 9:40 p.m. ET

Mariners Starting Pitcher: Logan Gilbert (12 GS, 3-4, 3.60 xFIP, 39.9% hard-hit, 43.9% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed T-Mobile Park

• Few players are producing at Juan Soto’s current level, proven by 7 home runs over his last 11 games.
• As usual, Soto is excelling in plenty of metrics, including his .640 xSLG (99th percentile), 18.8% barrel rate (97th percentile), and 50.4% hard-hit rate (92nd percentile).
• Mariners SP Logan Gilbert has surrendered a 1.45 HR/9, 43.9% fly ball rate, and 13.4% HR/FB, which are all above the 1.09, 39.0%, and 10.9% league averages.
• Soto gets plenty of lift thanks to his 45.8% fly ball rate, aiding his 21.7% HR/FB.
• Gilbert gave up 7 home runs over five starts in May and has ceded 0.92 big flies per start.
• With Soto raking to the tune of .326 and 10 of his 13 HRs coming against right-handed pitching, will the Mets’ superstar stay hot on Tuesday?

Add Juan Soto to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Who will add to their hot streak on Tuesday, June 2? Jarren Duran, Nick Kurtz, and Juan Soto are all rolling of late and carry favorable matchups to go yard tonight.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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