Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Thursday, May 28

Six matchups are on deck for Thursday, May 28’s MLB schedule. The action begins with the Los Angeles Angels vs. the Detroit Tigers at 1:10 p.m. ET, and the Houston Astros vs. the Texas Rangers cap the day with an 8:05 p.m. ET start time.

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez is looking to add to his 20-home run total, recording 5 long balls in his last three games.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, May 28, on PrizePicks now.

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, May 28

Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.

How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
2. White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
3. Braves OF Michael Harris II
4. Twins OF Byron Buxton
5. Cubs 1B Michael Busch
6. Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras
7. Blue Jays DH George Springer
8. Angels OF Mike Trout
9. Orioles DH Coby Mayo
10. Braves 1B Matt Olson

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Braves OF Michael Harris II

Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox – 4:10 p.m. ET

Red Sox Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle (6 GS, 2-2, 3.52 xFIP, 28.6% hard-hit, 52.3% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 68 degrees, 34% chance of rain, and 8 mph winds toward home plate

• After beginning the month in a slump with a .231 batting average over 15 games, Michael Harris II is back on track with a .343 average in his last eight appearance.
• In that eight-game split, Harris has tallied 4 home runs out of 12 total hits.
• Red Sox SP Payton Tolle brings a challenge with his 3.27 SIERA and 0.74 HR/9.
• Plus, Harris hits .254 against left-handed pitchers, compared to .320 when facing righties. He’s still managed to total 3 HRs vs. southpaws, though.
• As Boston’s top prospect, Tolle has passed the eye test with flying colors, but his 6.6% barrel rate allowed (62nd percentile) and 36.3% hard-hit rate allowed (65th percentile) are around league average, per Baseball Savant.
• Harris carries an elite 16.3% barrel rate (93rd percentile) and 56.1% hard-hit rate (98th percentile).
• Tolle’s 52.3% fly ball rate allowed is perhaps his most concerning trait, as it’s well above the 38.9% league average.
• If Harris is getting good lift, his 20.3% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) is a threat.

Add Michael Harris II to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Blue Jays DH George Springer

Blue Jays vs. Orioles – 6:35 p.m. ET

Orioles Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt (8 GS, 4-3, 4.76 xFIP, 30.9% hard-hit, 31.3% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 73 degrees, clear skies, and 10 mph winds toward first base

• George Springer has racked up 3 big flies over his last 10 games, giving him 5 dingers on the season.
• According to Baseball Savant, his slugging numbers still lack with a .376 xSLG (36th percentile), 8.3% barrel rate (51st percentile), and 37.6% hard-hit rate (32nd percentile).
• Orioles SP Chris Bassitt holds a concerning 4.76 xFIP, but his 0.76 HR/9 and 8.0% HR/FB are below the 1.07 and 10.8% league averages.
• Furthermore, Bassitt has permitted only 1 home run over four starts in May, and his 3.7% barrel rate allowed sits in the 90th percentile.
• Bassitt’s most-used pitches are a sinker (36.3%) and curveball (24.8%), and Springer bats only .120 and .167 against the pitches this season.\

Add George Springer to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Astros DH Yordan Alvarez

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers – 8:05 p.m. ET

Rangers Starting Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (10 GS, 5-5, 3.29 xFIP, 38.1% hard-hit, 31.8% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Globe Life Field.

• If you’re looking for a hot streak, look no further than Yordan Alvarez, who has 5 homers over his last three games and 2 long balls in back-to-back outings.
• Alvarez is up to 20 taters on the season, which is tied with White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami for the second-most in the big leagues.
• As expected, this production is backed by a Baseball Savant page full of red — including an 18.2% barrel rate (96th percentile) and 52.5% hard-hit rate (95th percentile). 
• Rangers SP Nathan Eovaldi is an interesting case, as his 3.29 xFIP points to some positive regression for his 3.65 ERA. 
• However, Texas’ starter yields 1.61 HR/9, an 8.0% barrel rate (46th percentile), and a 41.5% hard-hit rate (34th percentile).
• Eovaldi has permitted 11 HRs over 10 starts, including 6 over his last five appearances.
• His most-used pitch is a splitter with a 39.5% usage rate, and Alvarez rakes to the tune of .333 against the pitch.

Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

Will Yordan Alvarez make it four games in a row with a home run? George Springer’s short-lived hot streak may come to an end, while Michael Harris II could have an angle to go yard yet again. Who’s poised to send one over the fence for today’s shortened MLB slate?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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