The Blue Jays vs. Orioles begins Sunday, May 31’s schedule bright and early, with the first pitch scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET. Across today’s full 15-game slate, which sluggers have favorable matchups to go yard today? Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez is seeking his fourth consecutive game with a home run.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Sunday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Sunday, May 31, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Sunday, May 31
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Yankees OF Aaron Judge
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
- White Sox 3B Colson Montgomery
- Mets OF Juan Soto
- Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Yankees OF Aaron Judge
New York Yankees vs. Athletics – 4:05 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jacob Lopez (9 GS, 4-2, 5.90 xFIP, 26.2% hard-hit, 50.0% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 83 degrees, clear skies, and 4 mph winds toward first base
- Following 10 home runs in April, Aaron Judge has launched only 5 big flies in May — including 1 over his last 17 games.
- According to Ballpark Pal, Sutter Health Park has the third-highest home run factor of the day (+22%), combining park and weather factors.
- Furthermore, Athletics SP Jacob Lopez has a dreadful 5.73 ERA, allowing 2.03 HR/9 and a 13.6% home run-to-fly ball rate — which are both over the 1.09 and 10.9% league averages.
- The left-handed hurler has allowed 7 HRs over five starts in May. His 50.0% fly ball rate allowed is well above the 38.9% league average.
- Judge gets good lift with a 44.0% fly ball rate, and he hits those over the fence often with a 27.4% HR/FB.
- New York’s superstar outfielder has hit 5 of his 17 home runs against lefties this season.
Add Aaron Judge to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 4:10 p.m. ET
Phillies Starting Pitcher: Andrew Painter (9 GS, 1-5, 4.42 xFIP, 35.6% hard-hit, 41.8% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 79 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds to CF
- Shohei Ohtani hasn’t produced his usual slugging numbers, sporting only 10 big flies on the season. However, he has 2 dingers over his last three games.
- His Baseball Savant page certainly passes the eye test, proven by a .541 xSLG (94th percentile), 16.6% barrel rate (95th percentile), and 50.7% hard-hit rate (92nd percentile).
- Rookie SP Andrew Painter has given up 5 home runs over his last five appearances, contributing to his 1.26 HR/9.
- Painter’s 41.8% fly ball rate allowed is above the 38.9% league average. Ohtani’s 17.9% HR/FB is well below his 27.5% career average, but it still surpasses the 10.9% league average.
- Philadelphia’s No. 2 prospect leans on a four-seam fastball (35.5%) and slider (19.5%), and Ohtani bats .288 and .250 against those pitches across his career.
- Ohtani could be aided by winds blowing to center field on Sunday, contributing to the second-highest home run factor for today’s slate (+24%), per Ballpark Pal.
Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners – 4:10 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly (8 GS, 5-3, 5.06 xFIP, 44.2% hard-hit, 44.5% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed T-Mobile Park
- Julio Rodriguez is heating up with a long ball in three consecutive games. Will he continue the hot streak on Sunday, May 31?
- He carries a mediocre 8.8% barrel rate (57th percentile) and a 43.6% hard-hit rate (61st percentile), but his 76.5 bat speed (95th percentile) contributes to a solid .459 xSLG (75th percentile).
- The 25-year-old center fielder sports a career 18.1% HR/FB, and his current 16.4% mark still surpasses the 10.9% league average.
- Diamondbacks SP Merrill Kelly has been like a punching bag with a 5.25 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, and 1.50 HR/9.
- His ERA has improved to 3.51 in May, but he’s still ceded 3 taters over five starts this month.
- Opponents have enjoyed plenty of lift with a 44.5% fly ball rate against Kelly.
- His most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (26.0%) and a changeup (25.9%), and Rodriguez bats .259 and .300 against the pitches.
Add Julio Rodriguez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Two of the most notable names in baseball, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, carry solid matchups today. Julio Rodriguez’s hot streak may keep up against a vulnerable starter, but will his success come in the form of another home run?
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