Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Saturday, August 22

Time is ticking for teams to secure a spot in the playoffs this 2026 MLB season, so there's added pressure down the stretch. Even with that, there are still dingers on the docket ahead of Saturday’s loaded slate of games.

Fans will be treated to all 30 teams taking the field on August 22, which means all the best long-ball hitters across the league are going to have an opportunity to add to their homer tallies.

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Saturday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Saturday, August 22, on PrizePicks now.

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Saturday, August 22

Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so tricky to project on a nightly basis.

How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind blowing? The list goes on and on.

Because of how hard it is to accomplish, home run predictions are Demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on those projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
2. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
3. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
4. Cardinals RF Jordan Walker
5. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
6. Padres RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
7. White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
8. Dodgers 3B Max Muncy
9. Mets SS Francisco Lindor
10.  Rockies LF Mickey Moniak

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 7:15 p.m. ET

Pirates Starting Pitcher: Jared Jones (14 GS, 2-5, 3.76 xFIP, 39.1% hard-hit, 45.3 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 91 degrees, clear skies, and 9 mph winds slightly out to RF

• While Jones allows a 1.75 HR/9, 50.7% fly ball rate, and 9.3% barrel rate to righties, he also permits a 1.41 HR/9, 41.2% fly ball rate, and 8.1% barrel rate to lefties.
• Jones has ceded at least 1 HR in five consecutive starts.
• Against right-handed pitchers this season, Ohtani has a 157 wRC+, .402 wOBA, and .252 ISO.
• When playing at Dodger Stadium, Ohtani boasts a 162 wRC+, .409 wOBA, and .286 ISO.
• Since the start of August, Ohtani's producing a 156 wRC+, .401 wOBA, and .293 ISO.
• Across Ohtani’s last 9 batted ball events, 5 were hit at 102+ mph, and 3 resulted in a HR.

Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Rays 3B Junior Caminero

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 p.m. ET

Orioles Starting Pitcher: Brandon Young (21 GS, 9-3, 4.44 xFIP, 41.1% hard-hit, 40.1 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 75 degrees, 26% chance of rain and cloudy, and 6 mph winds blowing in from RF

• Young is logging reverse splits on the mound in the power department, allowing a 1.54 HR/9 and 8.2% barrel rate to righties compared to a 0.59 HR/9 and 5.9% barrel rate to lefties.
• In Young’s most recent start on August 17, he faced the Rays and allowed 3 HR in 4.0 IP.
• Ahead of his 22nd start, Young resides in the 33rd percentile in xERA (4.41) and 25th percentile in xBA (.258).
• Caminero is posting a 143 wRC+, .376 wOBA, and .274 ISO against right-handed pitching.
• Although his wRC+ has dropped to 113 since the start of August, Caminero still has a .221 ISO this month.
• A shortage of homers in recent outings hasn’t been for a lack of trying, as Caminero has hit a ball 101+ mph in 3 of his last 7 batted ball events, with 2 reaching 114+ mph.

Add Junior Caminero to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Astros DH Yordan Alvarez

Athletics vs. Houston Astros – 7:10 p.m. ET

Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jacob Lopez (17 GS, 5-4, 5.25  xFIP, 28.9% hard-hit, 52.1 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: This game is played in a dome

• Lopez has operated as an extreme fly ball pitcher, ranking in the 34th percentile in strikeout rate (20.5%) and eighth percentile in ground ball rate (33.5%).
• Besides Lopez not missing bats and often letting the ball in the air, he’s surrendered at least 1 HR in four straight starts.
• Alvarez crushes righties to the tune of a 207 wRC+, .467 wOBA, and .320 ISO, but he still has a modest 129 wRC+, .354 wOBA, and .236 ISO against lefties.
• Yordan also excels when playing in front of fans at Daikin Park, registering a whopping 226 wRC+, .494 wOBA, and .346 ISO at home.
• Over the last month, the Athletics’ bullpen has the sixth-worst xFIP (4.60) and 11th-worst HR/9 (1.10).
• During that same 30-day sample, the A’s relievers have tallied the sixth-worst hard-hit rate (40.0%) and seventh-worst barrel rate (7.2%).

Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Both Caminero and Alvarez are still vying for the HR crown in the American League, with both having favorable matchups on Saturday. Could we expect a plethora of moon shots from some of the premier hitters across the league for today’s slate of games?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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