Firework spectacles should be better than ever for America’s 250th birthday over the weekend, and MLB stars are looking to add to the pyrotechnics by going yard on Friday, July 3. The MLB slate begins with the Cardinals vs. Cubs at 4:05 p.m. ET, while the Padres vs. Dodgers cap the day at 10:10 p.m. ET.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule. Who could send one out of the park on Friday night?
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, July 3, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, July 3
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Nationals OF James Wood
- Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte
- Mets OF Juan Soto
- Giants 1B Rafael Devers
- Reds 3B Sal Stewart
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
- Twins DH Josh Bell
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Nationals OF James Wood
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals – 6:45 p.m. ET
Pirates Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller (17 GS, 6-5, 4.44 xFIP, 38.1% hard-hit, 34.8 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 99 degrees, 10% chance of rain, and 5 mph winds out to RF
- James Wood’s production dropped with a .243/.325/.439 slash line in June, but he may have found his footing with 5 hits in his last 9 at-bats (.555). Plus, he’s hit a home run in two of the last three games.
- The Pirates put SP Mitch Keller on the mound, and his 38.1% hard-hit rate allowed is above the 34.0% league average.
- Wood has the numbers to expose that weakness, proven by his .593 xSLG (99th percentile), 23.1% barrel rate (100th percentile), and 59.7% hard-hit rate (100th percentile).
- Plus, the left-handed batter carries a .522 SLG against right-handed pitchers, compared to .504 when facing southpaws.
- Baseball Savant tabs a four-seamer fastball (32.0%) and sinker (17.6%) as Keller’s most-used pitches, and Wood hits .349 and .356 against the tools.
- High heat and slight winds blowing to right field could further aid Wood in hitting another long ball on Friday night.
Add James Wood to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Yankees 1B Ben Rice
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees – 7:05 p.m. ET
Twins Starting Pitcher: Mike Paredes (4 GS, 0-1, 5.35 xFIP, 38.8% hard-hit, 39.3 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 99 degrees, 19% chance of rain, and 8 mph winds out to CF
- In New York’s previous series vs. the Tigers, the two combined for 10.0 runs per game. That could continue into the weekend vs. the Twins thanks to a brutal heatwave.
- Ballpark Pal gives Yankee Stadium a +22% home run factor tonight, combining ballpark and weather factors. This includes winds to center field and hot temperatures that should allow the ball to stay in flight.
- Ben Rice is familiar with getting lift thanks to his 40.0% flyball rate (FB%) and 26.1% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB), each ranking over the 39.1% and 11.6% league averages.
- Twins SP Mike Paredes has permitted 1.42 HR/9, including 2 home runs in his last start on June 27.
- His 91.9 average exit velocity (second percentile) and 7.1% barrel rate allowed (55th percentile) draw clean concern, and Rice sports a 91.7 average exit velocity (87th percentile) and 14.1% barrel rate (87th percentile).
- Paredes’ top pitches are a four-seam fastball (39.6%) and changeup (22.6%), giving Rice another favorable matchup with his .353 and .379 batting averages against the pitches.
Add Ben Rice to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Reds 3B Sal Stewart
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds – 7:10 p.m. ET
Orioles Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers (15 GS, 5-7, 4.69 xFIP, 35.5% hard-hit, 46.0 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 94 degrees, 13% chance of rain, and 2 mph winds out to LF
- Great American Ballpark has the fourth-highest home run factor (+14%) on Ballpark Pal. Then add today’s 94-degree weather in Cincinnati, and we’re cooking with gas — as seen by a +26% home run factor.
- The Orioles are leaning on SP Trevor Rogers tonight, and he carries a 4.99 ERA. However, he excelled over five starts in June by posting a 2.05 ERA while giving up 1 home run in the split.
- Rogers’ 46.0 FB% rate, which is far above the 39.1% league average, is a major concern in Great American Ballpark, though.
- Reds 1B Sal Stewart has a 37.8 FB% that’s above the league average, paired with an 18.1% HR/FB.
- Stewart’s posted 2 HRs in his last three games, and he carries a .282/.398/.526 slash line against left-handed hurlers compared to .257/.342/.471 vs. righties.
- The southpaw pitcher Rogers could be in trouble against Stewart’s .483 xSLG (85th percentile) and 15.4% barrel rate (92nd percentile).
Add Sal Stewart to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Who could help spark this weekend’s Fourth of July celebration? Sluggers James Wood and Sal Stewart could join the fireworks show with big flies on Friday night.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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