The weather is warming up across the country, and that means favorable environments for sluggers going yard. For Friday, June 5’s full 15-game MLB schedule, which batters could launch home runs?
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, June 5, on PrizePicks now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, June 5
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Mets OF Juan Soto
- Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers – 6:40 p.m. ET
Tigers Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez (12 GS, 2-4, 4.29 xFIP, 37.0% hard-hit, 32.9% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 83 degrees, clear skies, and 14 mph winds toward third base
- Launching 4 home runs over his last seven games, Julio Rodriguez is beginning to heat up with the summer weather.
- Baseball Savant credits Seattle’s center fielder with a .467 xSLG (77th percentile) and 76.6 bat speed (95th percentile) that helps ease worries around his mediocre 42.9% hard-hit rate (57th percentile).
- His 16.7% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) still sits above the 11.0% league average, and Tigers SP Framber Valdez has allowed 1 HR in back-to-back starts and 5 big flies over his previous five outings.
- Further, Valdez’s most-used pitches are a sinker (47.0%) and curveball (28.5%). J-Rod bats .288 and .286 against those pitches this season.
- Facing a left-handed pitcher isn’t a worry for Rodriguez either, as he hits .284 with 7 big flies vs. southpaws compared to .246 and 6 homers against righties.
Add Julio Rodriguez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees – 7:05 p.m. ET
Yankees Starting Pitcher: Ryan Weathers (11 GS, 2-3, 3.08 xFIP, 28.5% hard-hit, 39.0% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 87 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds toward third base
- Boston’s poor 26-35 start is overshadowing Willson Contreras’ terrific start with a .295/.392/.527 slashline.
- He sports a .520 xSLG (91st percentile), aided by a 14.3% barrel rate (87th percentile) and 76.4 bat speed (95th percentile).
- Contreras totaled 5 hits over his last 8 at-bats (.625), including 1 home run in the split.
- His exceptional 21.1% HR/FB suggests more dingers could be ahead, and Yankees SP Ryan Weathers yields a 17.2% HR/FB and 1.55 HR/9.
- Weathers gave up 3 HRs in his last start on May 30, increasing his total to 6 long balls allowed over his previous five starts.
- Baseball Savant also gives the Yankees’ starter an 11.0% barrel rate allowed (15th percentile) and a 41.2% hard-hit rate allowed (35th percentile).
- Contreras has kept his pace against lefties with a .296 batting average compared to .294 vs. right-handed hurlers.
- According to Ballpark Pal, Yankee Stadium has a +12% home run factor today — which combines weather and park factors.
Add Willson Contreras to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Rays 3B Junior Caminero
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins – 7:10 p.m. ET
Marlins Starting Pitcher: Ryan Gusto (2 appearances, 0-0, 1.87 xFIP, 70.0% hard-hit, 30.0% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Marlins Park
- As seen above, Junior Caminero has cranked against four-seam fastballs, and Mariners RP Ryan Gusto’s most-used pitch is a four-seamer (36.5%).
- Gusto has made only two appearances as a reliever this season, compiling 3.0 innings pitched.
- The Marlins will lean on their bullpen today, and the unit has a 4.13 xFIP on the season (16th) and 3.93 over the last 30 days (10th).
- However, Miami’s relievers have yielded 0.91 HR/9 (13th) and a 10.8% HR/FB (17th) in the last 30 days, compared to 0.72 (fourth) and 7.8% (tied for fourth) on the season.
- Caminero is an immediate threat to hit one over the fence with Gusto allowing an alarming 70.0% hard-hit rate in a small sample size.
- Tampa Bay’s third baseman holds a 21.9% HR/FB, which could expose the Marlins’ bullpen that’s allowing more HRs of late.
Add Junior Caminero to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
While the usual suspects like Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber and Astros DH Yordan Alvarez top the list of the most popular home run picks on PrizePicks for today, don’t sleep on the bottom of the list. Sluggers like Julio Rodriguez and Willson Contreras are clear threats to hit one over the fence thanks to recent hot streaks and favorable matchups.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
.jpg)
