The race for the home run crown is heating up as the second half of the MLB regular season marches on. Friday, July 24 features the top 10 leaders in home runs, including Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Schwarber. Who carries a favorable matchup to smash a big fly today?
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, July 24, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, July 24
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Mets OF Juan Soto
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 6:45 p.m. ET
Yankees Starting Pitcher: Will Warren (19 GS, 7-4, 3.95 xFIP, 32.7% hard-hit, 36.7 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 81 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds out to LF
- Following a brutal loss in the Home Run Derby, it didn’t take long for Kyle Schwarber to go yard with his 33rd home run on July 18. However, he’s totaled only 3 HRs over 17 games in July.
- Yankees SP Will Warren’s 36.7% fly ball and 32.7% hard-hit rates allowed are under the 39.0% and 34.2% league averages, yet he’s still yielded 1.27 HR/9.
- Warren allows a 7.1% barrel rate (55th percentile) and a 90.2 average exit velocity (19th percentile). Schwarber boasts an 18.9% barrel rate (98th percentile) and a 93.2 average exit velocity (96th percentile).
- Over 4 career at-bats against Warren, Schwarber has 1 big fly with a 1.000 SLG.
- Warren’s four-seam fastball (38.5%) and sinker (27.3%) are his most-used pitches, and Schwarber has hit 16 of his 33 long balls against these tools.
- According to Ballpark Pal, Citizens Bank Park has the second-highest home run factor for Friday’s slate (+9%).
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox – 7:40 p.m. ET
Astros Starting Pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti (16 GS, 7-5, 4.88 xFIP, 30.9% hard-hit, 42.1 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 77 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds toward home plate
- Astros SP Spencer Arrighetti cedes 1.24 HR/9, which is above the 1.19 league average.
- Arrighetti has struggled with sluggers of late, proven by 9 home runs allowed over his previous five appearances.
- Houston’s starting pitcher holds opponents to a low 30.9% hard-hit rate, but that’s combated by his 7.9% barrel (45th percentile) and 42.1 FB% rates allowed.
- Munetaka Murakami can expose that flaw with his 45.6 FB% and absurd 32.3% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) that smashes the 11.9% HR/FB league average.
- Arrighetti leans on a curveball (33.4%) and a four-seam fastball (29.4%). Murakami has launched 10 of his 20 HRs against those pitches, adding to his favorable matchup tonight.
- Murakami is more than capable of going the distance, backed by a 19.1% barrel rate (99th percentile), a 58.1% hard-hit rate (99th percentile), and a .495 xSLG (89th percentile).
Add Munetaka Murakami to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Twins OF Byron Buxton
Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins – 8:10 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jacob Lopez (12 GS, 4-4, 5.80 xFIP, 26.3% hard-hit, 49.2 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 82 degrees, clear skies, and 13 mph winds toward 3B
- After returning from a hip injury following the All-Star break, Byron Buxton is seeking his first tater since June 22.
- Buxton comes off a strong three-game series with 4 hits over 11 at-bats (.364) vs. the Guardians, but he failed to log an extra-base hit in those contests.
- Minnesota’s star outfielder certainly carries punch behind his bat, as he sports a .515 xSLG (94th percentile), a 17.9% barrel rate (97th percentile), and a 47.4% hard-hit rate (83rd percentile).
- Athletics SP Jacob Lopez gives up a concerning 1.66 HR/9 and a 49.2 FB%.
- Lopez’s tendency to allow lift is like playing with fire, as Buxton has an impressive 53.8 FB% and 19.8% HR/FB.
- Against the left-handed hurler, Buxton maintains success vs. southpaws by batting .273, compared to .274 when facing righties.
- The forecast is calling for strong 13 mph winds to blow toward third base. If that shifts to the left field, the right-handed Buxton would get a major boost for hitting one over the fence.
Add Byron Buxton to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
MLB’s top 10 leaders in home runs are in action today, including Kyle Schwarber and Byron Buxton. After returning from injury on July 10, Munetaka Murakami chases his first home run since May 27.
Will one of those sluggers record another home run on Friday night? Other sluggers like Astros DH Yordan Alvarez are certainly capable of joining the party as well.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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