Following Wednesday, August 26, MLB officially has its first player to hit 40 home runs this season, as Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber went yard for the third time over his last five games. This is far from an exclusive club, though, with Braves 1B Matt Olson (37 HRs), Astros DH Yordan Alvarez (36 HRs), and Rockies C Hunter Goodman (36 HRs) nipping at Schwarber’s heels.
How could the race for the most big flies shift during Friday, August 28’s full 15-game lineup? PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, August 28, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, August 28
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Orioles DH Pete Alonso
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Nationals OF Daylen Lile
- Rangers DH Joc Pederson
- Pirates OF Esmerlyn Valdez
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Braves 1B Matt Olson
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET
Rockies Starting Pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano (23 GS, 12-7, 4.76 xFIP, 42.4% hard-hit, 41.3 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 83 degrees, 21% chance of rain, and 0 mph winds out to CF
- Ballpark Pal gives Truist Park a -2% home run factor on Friday, partially due to little to no wind tonight.
- However, Matt Olson’s matchup could still be good enough to hit his 38th home run of the season. He’s consistently displayed his exceptional power with 8 home runs and a .562 SLG in August.
- Furthermore, Baseball Savant credits Atlanta’s first baseman with a .524 xSLG (98th percentile), 15.8% barrel rate (96th percentile), and 50.3% hard-hit rate (91st percentile).
- Olson regularly showcases lift, proven by his 48.1% fly ball rate contributing to a strong 20.6% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB). Both marks are well above the 39.0% and 11.6% league averages, per FanGraphs.
- Meanwhile, Rockies SP Tomoyuki Sugano cedes an alarming 1.92 HR/9, in part thanks to a 15.3% HR/FB. He’s allowed 5 HRs over four starts in August.
- Sugano’s most-used pitches are a splitter (21.5%), four-seam fastball (19.9%), and sinker (19.8%). Olson has launched 18 of his 37 big flies against those tools.
Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Pirates OF Esmerlyn Valdez
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals – 8:15 p.m. ET
Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Quinn Mathews (3 GS, 0-2, 4.77 xFIP, 23.9% hard-hit, 42.2 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 84 degrees, clear skies, and 3 mph winds toward home plate
- The Pirates called Esmerlyn Valdez up to the majors in late May, and the 22-year-old rookie has not disappointed with a .249/.363/.536 slash line over 63 appearances.
- However, Valdez is slumping with a .203 batting average and .304 SLG in August. He’s shown hope by recording 4 hits over his previous four outings, including 1 HR in the split.
- Baseball Savant does not deem Valdez eligible for its percentile rankings due to limited games, but the rookie’s .451 xSLG, 21.2% barrel rate, and 48.3% hard-hit rate are all well above league averages. For context, Astros DH Yordan Alvarez carries a 17.0% barrel rate (98th percentile).
- Pittsburgh’s rookie will face off with a left-handed pitcher in SP Quinn Mathews, and Valdez hits .260 against southpaws compared to .242 vs. righties.
- Mathews has allowed only 1 dinger over three MLB starts, but he posted 1.18 HR/9 and a 17.8% HR/FB allowed in 21 Triple-A appearances. That points to negative regression ahead.
- The Cardinals’ No. 8 prospect has primarily featured four-seam fastballs (43.3%) and sliders (22.7%), and Valdez has hit 10 of his 15 taters against those pitches.
Add Esmerlyn Valdez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Orioles DH Pete Alonso
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics – 9:40 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: TBD
MLB Weather Report: 83 degrees, clear skies, and 4 mph winds out to CF
- Pete Alonso is simply inevitable right now, carrying 9 home runs with a .374/.430/.703 slash line in August.
- Now, one of baseball’s hottest hitters travels out west to face the Athletics, who have one of the most hitter-friendly environments in Sutter Health Park.
- Baseball Savant’s Park Factors gives Sutter Health Park the second-most home runs (122) over the last two years, behind only Dodger Stadium. Plus, Ballpark Pal gives today’s game the highest home run factor (+28%), sitting well above the second-highest mark (+13%) in Nationals Park.
- Keep in mind Alonso carries a 58.8% hard-hit rate and 34.6% HR/FB in August, smashing his season-long 46.7% and 23.2% numbers.
- The Athletics have yet to officially announce a starter, but SP Jacob Lopez seems in line to make his 19th start of the season.
- Lopez carries a concerning 4.98 ERA and 5.08 xFIP, paired with a 1.44 HR/9 and 52.6% fly ball rate allowed.
- After surrendering 3 home runs over his last four starts, Lopez could be in danger against the red-hot Alonso.
Add Pete Alonso to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Following a scorching month of play, Pete Alonso has quickly made a push for 2026’s most home runs, as his 32 long balls sit as the eighth-most in 2026. Meanwhile, Matt Olson’s 37 HRs rank as the second-most dingers, and Esmerlyn Valdez continues to establish himself during his rookie campaign.
Don’t wait until the first pitch—make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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