MLB’s weekend series begin on Friday, August 21, headlined by the Braves vs. Brewers colliding as two of the National League’s top three teams. Braves 1B Matt Olson is only 1 home run away from tying the top mark in baseball.
Plenty of MLB’s best sluggers will be on show tonight, from Astros DH Yordan Alvarez to Rays 3B Junior Caminero. But who holds a favorable matchup to send one over the fence?
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, August 21, on PrizePicks now!
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, August 21
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
- Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Reds DH Eugenio Suarez
- Nationals OF Dylan Crews
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles – 7:15 p.m. ET
Rays Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta (25 GS, 5-10, 4.37 xFIP, 35.0% hard-hit, 39.8 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 77 degrees, clear skies, and 2 mph winds toward 3B
- After defeating the Rays 3-1 in a four-game series, the Orioles come off a 3-0 defeat against the Yankees. In the sweep, Pete Alonso remained a steady force with 4 hits over 12 at-bats (.333)—including 1 home run in the split.
- Alonso is up to a .373/.440/.672 slash line for the month, featuring 6 long balls.
- During the four-game series vs. Tampa Bay from August 14 to 17, the O’s first baseman tallied 8 hits over 16 at-bats (.500) while smashing 2 HRs.
- Since landing with the Rays via trade, SP Freddy Peralta has a 7.53 ERA over three starts. Plus, he posted 8.30, 6.29, and 6.47 xERAs over the three starts, suggesting positive regression may not come.
- Peralta also allowed 3 home runs over his three appearances as a Ray, contributing to his 1.41 HR/9 and 13.0% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) that are above the 1.17 and 11.6% league averages.
- According to Baseball Savant, Peralta leans on his four-seam fastball (53.5%) and changeup (21.6%). Meanwhile, Alonso has 12 and 3 big flies against those pitches, making up 15 of his 29 taters this season.
Add Pete Alonso to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres – 9:40 p.m. ET
Twins Starting Pitcher: Connor Prielipp (17 GS, 3-6, 4.02 xFIP, 32.5% hard-hit, 40.1 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 75 degrees, clear skies, and 4 mph winds out to CF
- Fernando Tatis Jr. currently carries a .280 batting average, which would be his highest mark since .282 in 2021. During the 2021 campaign, Tatis hit a career-high 42 HRs. His current 15-big fly total pales in comparison, but he still boasts strong slugging numbers.
- For example, Tatis’ .475 xSLG (85th percentile) implies positive regression should arrive for his .434 SLG. That’s been the case in August, proven by a whopping .645 SLG.
- His 7 HRs have played a major role in the increase this month, including a 2-long ball outing vs. the Mets on August 18.
- Twins SP Connor Prielipp yielded 4 home runs with an 8.22 ERA over his last three starts. His 40.1 FB% is above the 39.0% league average. That could be problematic against Tatis’ 12.2% barrel rate (80th percentile) and 52.7% hard-hit rate (96th percentile).
- Facing a left-handed hurler shouldn’t pose a problem either, as Tatis bats .290 with a .551 SLG against southpaws. That’s elevated from his .277 batting average and .401 SLG when facing righties.
Add Fernando Tatis Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners – 10:10 p.m. ET
Mariners Starting Pitcher: Emerson Hancock (23 GS, 7-7, 3.83 xFIP, 35.6% hard-hit, 40.9 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed T-Mobile Park.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong is firmly in the mix to win the National League MVP, featuring the shortest payout to win the award (1.63x) on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- He’s not slowing down either, racking up 6 hits over his previous 17 at-bats (.353). His slugging is alive and well with 4 home runs in that split.
- Over 18 games in August, Crow-Armstrong has 7 big flies and an elite .630 SLG that’s elevated from his .550 SLG on the season.
- He will line up against a right-handed pitcher in Emerson Hancock tonight, and the Cubs’ superstar has launched 22 of his 31 home runs in this split.
- Crow-Armstrong gets plenty of lift with his 49.7 FB%, and Hancock’s 40.9 FB% allowed is above the league average.
- Seattle’s starter also cedes an 8.4% barrel rate that suggests trouble against Crow-Armstrong’s 12.5% barrel rate (83rd percentile).
Add Pete Crow-Armstrong to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Pete Crow-Armstong seeks to add to his MVP campaign tonight, while Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr. look to maintain their hot play with the Orioles and Padres firmly in the playoff hunt. Who will add to their home run total on Friday night?
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