The US Open round of 16 gets underway on Sunday, and a fantastic tennis slate awaits. In the afternoon, Tommy Paul will face Carlos Alcaraz on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
This is the third time Paul has reached this stage in New York, but the US Open remains the only major where he hasn’t reached the quarterfinals. However, he’ll have to get past the defending champion, who has looked sharp through three rounds despite returning from a four-month layoff.
Can the American finally break through despite the difficult matchup?
Below, we’ll break down our Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 2:00 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Sunday’s match now!
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Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Round of 16
Below are the payouts for who will win Sunday’s Paul vs. Alcaraz match, via PrizePicks.
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Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction for US Open – Sunday, September 6
Match Winner Payouts: Paul 5x | Alcaraz 1.14x
Tournament Round: Round of 16
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Paul 36-16 | Alcaraz 22-3
Head-to-Head Record: Alcaraz leads 6-2
Scheduled Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ABC/ESPN
Carlos Alcaraz has dropped just one set through three matches, and he has to be pleased with his form after being away from the court so long.
His victims have been Roman Safiullin, Jaime Faria, and Yibing Wu. Faria won his first set against Alcaraz, but even that match ultimately wasn’t close, as the Spaniard took control and cruised to a 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 win.
While none of these players are ranked inside the top 50, Alcaraz has dominated the stat sheet in all three victories and has been broken only five times total.
However, world No. 21 Tommy Paul should provide a much better barometer of where Alcaraz’s level is right now.
Among the top American contenders, Paul was mostly flying under the radar heading into the US Open, but he’s a four-time quarterfinalist across the other three majors and went as far as the semifinals at the 2023 Australian Open.
It hasn’t been an easy road to this stage, though, as Paul has gone at least four sets in all three of his wins, including an up-and-down five-setter against Alexander Bublik in the third round. He eventually prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-3.
Considering nothing has come easy for Paul thus far, it’s fair to wonder if his level will be enough to trouble Alcaraz.
The Spaniard may not have many matches under his belt since his layoff, but he can draw plenty of confidence from a 6-2 head-to-head record and a five-match winning streak against the American. Three of the last five wins have come at Grand Slams, too, with the most recent one being this year’s Australian Open.
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Alcaraz is projected to win 63.5% of the time.
Make your Paul vs. Alcaraz US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz for the US Open on Sunday
Paul vs. Alcaraz Pick – 36 Total Games
Alcaraz’s three US Open wins have totaled 30, 33, and 26 games.
Four of the Spaniard’s six wins over Paul have been in straight sets, including the last two at the 2025 French Open and this year’s Australian Open. Those matches totaled 23 and 35 games.
Paul is 0-9 in Grand Slams against top-10 players.
Since the beginning of 2025, Alcaraz is 34-2 in Grand Slam matches. The only two players to beat him are Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic.
Pick Alcaraz to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Tommy Paul is seeking his first US Open quarterfinal, but Carlos Alcaraz is looking a lot like his old self and has dominated their head-to-head. Will the Spaniard once again prove to be too much for the American?
Don’t wait until Sunday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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