#7 Texas vs. #18 Missouri Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, November 7

Week 10 of the 2026 college football season features a massive SEC showdown as the #7 Texas Longhorns travel to Columbia, Mo., to take on the #18 Missouri Tigers at 12 p.m. ET.

Texas enters Saturday's matchup at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in SEC, squarely in the College Football Playoff picture after the first rankings. The Longhorns are coming off an impressive 31-3 victory over Mississippi State, bouncing back with one of their most complete performances of the season.

Missouri is also 6-2 overall and 3-2 in SEC play. The Tigers have been particularly impressive at home and are coming off a dominant 34-10 road victory over Arkansas. Another quality win would likely put them in the Playoff discussion with just a few weeks to go.

Texas vs. Missouri kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET today on ESPN at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Mo..

Below, we'll break down our Texas vs. Missouri prediction and picks for Saturday's Week 10 SEC showdown, including the spread and player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Texas vs. Missouri picks on PrizePicks now!

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Texas vs. Missouri Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Saturday, November 7

Texas enters Saturday's game as a 2.5-point road favorite against Missouri, returning a 1.66x payout if they win outright on PrizePicks. They were previously larger favorites, but action continues to pour in on the Tigers.

Here are the full payouts for Texas vs. Missouri, via PrizePicks. Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Texas vs. Missouri prediction on the spread or over/under

Texas can stay in the Playoff conversation with a loss, though it would severely hamper their chances to get a bid. Meanwhile, Missouri would enter the Playoff conversation with a win; however, they have brutal matchups at #2 Georgia and vs. #6 Kentucky coming up next.

Texas has been inconsistent offensively this season, but is still averaging 30.8 points and 358.4 total yards per game. The Longhorns have been much more productive through the air than on the ground, averaging 224.1 passing yards, but just 134.3 rushing yards per contest.

Texas QB Arch Manning has completed 64.8% of his passes for 1,727 yards and 15 TDs through eight games. However, he's also thrown 7 INTs, and Texas has struggled to consistently generate explosive offensive performances against stronger competition.

RB Raleek Brown is the Longhorns' leading rusher, accumulating 452 yards and 5 TDs on 92 carries. He's averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, providing a much-needed source of balance for a run game that hasn't been particularly effective.

Texas' biggest strength has undoubtedly been its defense. The Longhorns are allowing just 17.1 points and 273.1 total yards per game. They've been particularly dominant against opposing passing attacks, surrendering only 170.8 passing yards per contest, ranking 12th nationally.

Missouri has been more productive than the Longhorns offensively, averaging 31.5 points and 425.3 total yards per game. The Tigers have a much more balanced offensive attack, averaging 257.1 passing yards and 168.1 rushing yards per contest.

Missouri QB Austin Simmons has been efficient, completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,952 yards and 16 TDs against just 2 INTs through eight games.

The biggest difference-maker has been RB Jamal Roberts, who has more than filled in for standout RB Ahmad Hardy, who returned to a minimal role last week. Roberts has emerged as one of the nation's most productive running backs, rushing for 1,005 yards and 9 TDs — good for 125.6 rushing yards per game.

Missouri's defense has been solid statistically, allowing 18.4 points and 325.3 total yards per game. The Tigers have been especially effective against opposing rushing attacks, surrendering just 98.4 rushing yards per contest.

However, this is a difficult matchup for both offenses. Texas has one of the nation's best defenses, while Missouri's ability to establish the run could be tested against an extremely talented Longhorns front.

Injury-wise, Mizzou has a much cleaner bill of health than the Longhorns. Texas has four players officially ruled out, including RB Hollywood Smothers, starting LT Trevor Goosby, TE Nick Townsend, and EDGE Richard Wesley.

More importantly, five key contributors remain questionable for Texas: star EDGE Colin Simmons (10.5 sacks), WRs Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman, and defensive backs Kade Phillips and Graceson Littleton. Simmons' absence would be especially damaging against Missouri's rushing attack, while missing Wingo and Coleman would limit Arch Manning's receiving options.

Make your Texas vs. Missouri prediction on winner, players and more on PrizePicks!

Texas vs. Missouri Prediction, Pick on Spread – Saturday, November 7

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Texas vs. Missouri spread prediction for Saturday, November 7.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from College Football Ratings, CFBStats, or PFF.

• In a game with just a 43.5-point projected total, a few things will be key in this matchup: Turnovers, rushing offense, and defense.
• This Texas run defense ranks fifth in EPA (-0.15), per Game on Paper, but Missouri may have a legitimate rushing advantage with Roberts, who leads the SEC and ranks third nationally with 1,005 rushing yards.
• On the flip side, Texas has had a disastrous time rushing the ball this season. They rank 89th in EPA/rush (-0.01) and 80th nationally in rushing success rate (43.5%).
• Missouri has been excellent at protecting the football, surrendering just five turnovers through eight games. On defense, the Tigers have generated 13 takeaways, giving them a +8 turnover margin. 
• On the flip side, Texas has struggled in this area, entering the game with a minus-three turnover margin.
• Additionally, Texas ranks 136th nationally in havoc allowed, while the Mizzou defense ranks 14th in havoc created. That is a recipe for sacks, fumbles, stalled drives, and turnovers.
• Home-field advantage is another significant factor. This crowd will be electric for the Tigers' biggest game of the season to this point, and Missouri has gone 25-4 at home since 2023.

Lock in your Texas vs. Missouri prediction on PrizePicks before Saturday's SEC game.

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Texas vs. Missouri Picks for PrizePicks CFB – 11/7/26

Here are two Texas vs. Missouri player picks to consider for Saturday's SEC showdown. Today's PrizePicks CFB picks focus on Texas QB Arch Manning and Missouri RB Jamal Roberts.

Texas QB Arch Manning vs. Missouri: 209.5 Passing Yards

• I have serious concerns about Manning’s protection vs. Missouri. As mentioned above, he will be playing without his starting left tackle, while Texas already ranks 136th in havoc allowed.
• Arch has attempted 20 or fewer passes in three of his last five games, perhaps signaling trust concerns from HC Steve Sarkisian.
• The Missouri defense is no pushover either. They rank 35th nationally in EPA/pass (-0.05) and 29th nationally in defensive success rate against the pass (39.3%).
• Explosive pass plays will be tough to come by as well, as the Tigers rank an impressive 25th in explosive play rate allowed.
• If Arch is missing either of his top two WRs, Coleman (questionable) or Wingo (probable), this becomes an even harder mark to reach for the Texas QB.

Pick Arch Manning pass yards + Texas vs. Mizzou spread on PrizePicks now!

Missouri RB Jamal Roberts vs. Texas: 91.5 Rushing Yards

• Roberts is the Tigers' offensive focal point and is averaging 125.6 rushing yards per game through eight contests. He already has 5 games with more than 100 rushing yards.
• What's particularly impressive is his ability to create yards after contact. PFF credits Roberts with 844 yards after contact, the most in the FBS.
• He's averaging 4.2 yards after contact per attempt, making him extremely difficult to bring down on first contact.
• Texas has been excellent against the run, but in a game projected to be extremely competitive, potentially decided by a few key mistakes, it makes a ton of sense for Mizzou to lean on their top RB.
• Workload has been no concern at all for Roberts, who is averaging 23.8 carries per game.
• Ignoring their tune-up opener against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Roberts has surpassed this projection in all of his home games.

Pick Jamal Roberts rush yards + Texas vs. Mizzou spread on PrizePicks now!

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Make Your Texas vs. Missouri Prediction on PrizePicks

SEC football takes center stage on Saturday to kickoff Week 10 as the #7 Texas Longhorns travel to Columbia to face the #18 Missouri Tigers a 12 p.m. ET

Can Arch Manning lead Texas to another important conference victory and strengthen the Longhorns' College Football Playoff resume? Or will Jamal Roberts and the Tigers defend their home field and hand Texas its third loss of the season?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Texas vs. Missouri prediction on PrizePicks Team Picks now! There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the CFB board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you're right.

With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, or combine your picks with players for even higher payouts!

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more as we move through the 2026 college football season.