TCU vs. #22 Arizona Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks for Friday November 6

The #22 Arizona Wildcats won all five November games last season as they look to keep that streak going against the TCU Horned Frogs. Kickoff is set for Friday, November 6, at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, with Arizona favored by 7.5 points on the spread, per PrizePicks.

Arizona (6-2) has lost to two of the top three teams in the Big 12 this season, falling at BYU and Texas Tech. The Wildcats saw their five-game winning streak come to a halt in last Saturday’s 34-26 loss vs. Texas Tech.

The Horned Frogs (4-4) picked up their second conference victory in last week’s 22-16 comeback over Kansas. 

Below, we'll break down our TCU vs. Arizona prediction and picks for Friday's college football game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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TCU vs. #22 Arizona Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, November 6

The Wildcats enter Friday’s game as 7.5-point favorites against the Horned Frogs. TCU returns a 3.22x payout if it wins outright, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the TCU vs. Arizona game. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your TCU vs. Arizona prediction on winner, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

The most interesting storyline heading into this matchup is Arizona’s fifth-ranked EPA/pass facing TCU’s 13th-ranked defensive EPA/pass, per Game on Paper.

The Horned Frogs have been excellent defensively, sitting in the top 25 nationally in EPA/pass, EPA/rush, and defensive success rate. TCU has not allowed more than 24 points in a game while overcoming a 13-0 halftime deficit in last Saturday’s home triumph over Kansas.

These teams are separated by one game in the Big 12 standings. Arizona sits in a four-way tie for third place at 3-2, while TCU is among six schools at 2-3.

The Wildcats have defeated three teams that own 2-3 conference records (West Virginia, Iowa State, and Cincinnati) by 21+ points apiece. However, Arizona allowed a season-high 34 points at Texas Tech as the Wildcats squandered a 17-7 second quarter lead.

The final numbers were strange, to say the least, in Lubbock. Arizona QB Noah Fifita threw for 417 yards, while Texas Tech QB Thomas Castellanos completed only 11 passes for 144 yards. On the ground, the Wildcats were outgained 328-12 as Arizona ran the ball 30 times.

Somehow the Horned Frogs escaped past the Jayhawks last Saturday despite being outgained 458-288. KU ran 25 more yards from scrimmage, but the Jayhawks were limited to an offensive EPA of -12.87 compared to TCU’s -3.10.

Both squads are 3-5 against the spread (ATS), as three of TCU’s non-covers came in the favorite role. The Wildcats own a 3-3 ATS mark when laying points, but all three ATS losses occurred as a double-digit favorite. 

TCU vs. Arizona Prediction on Spread – 11/6/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our TCU vs. Arizona prediction on the spread for Friday, November 6.

• The Wildcats are averaging 37.5 points per game in their four home victories.
• TCU is 0-3 away from Fort Worth but allowed a total of 42 points in those defeats.
• These teams didn’t meet last season, but TCU routed Arizona 49-28 as 10.5-point home favorites in 2024.
• TCU ranks 115th in offensive success rate, and that number drops to 135th in rushing.
• Arizona has struggled on the ground, posting the 115th success rate. The Horned Frogs own the 12th-best defensive success rate at 37.2%.
• The Wildcats have scored at least 4 offensive TDs in all four home wins.

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TCU vs. Arizona Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/6/26

Here are top TCU vs. Arizona picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, November 6. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include WR Jordan Dwyer and QB Noah Fifita.

TCU WR Jordan Dwyer vs. Arizona: 65.5 Rec Yards

• After missing the first three games, Dwyer has averaged 102.2 receiving yards in the past four outings.
• Dwyer compiled three consecutive 100-yard performances before getting held to 46 yards against Kansas. 
• Dwyer shockingly couldn’t reach 50 yards last week even though he was targeted 12 times. In the last two games, he has been targeted 25 times.
• The Wildcats have allowed three opposing wide receivers to more than 66 yards this season. West Virginia WR Prince Strachan is the only player to reach 100 yards against Arizona with 121 yards.

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Arizona QB Noah Fifita vs. TCU: 278.5 Pass Yards

• The senior is coming off three consecutive 300+ yard passing performances. Fifita torched two of the worst defenses in EPA/dropback in Iowa State (119th) and West Virginia (136th).
• Fifita faces the 13th-ranked defense in EPA/dropback tonight, while posting 284 passing yards in his last matchup with TCU in 2024.
• The only opposing QB to pass this projection against TCU this season is Kansas QB Cole Ballard, who compiled 285 passing yards.
• Fifita is averaging 34 passing attempts per game in Big 12 play. Two QBs have put up at least 30 passes against TCU: Ballard (35) and Baylor QB DJ Lagway (53).   

Add Noah Fifita to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Arizona looks to bounce back from last week’s loss at Texas Tech. Can the Wildcats take care of business at home against TCU, or will the Horned Frogs even their mark in Big 12 play?

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