New Mexico vs. Nevada Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Friday, November 6

Week 10 of the college football season has five games scheduled on Friday, November 6, including a Mountain West showdown between New Mexico and Nevada at 9:00 p.m. ET on CBS. Ahead of Friday’s Mountain West clash, the Lobos are favored on the road, with a 1.23x payout to secure a win on PrizePicks.

With five straight wins and a 7-1 record entering Week 10, New Mexico (#22) is ranked in the AP Poll for the first time in its program’s history. Meanwhile, Nevada has alternated wins and losses over the last four weeks, leading to a 3-5 record.

Below, we'll break down our New Mexico vs. Nevada prediction and picks for Friday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks on PrizePicks.

Make your New Mexico vs. Nevada prediction on PrizePicks now!

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New Mexico vs. Nevada Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, November 6

New Mexico enters Friday’s game as a 9.5-point road favorite against Nevada, returning a 1.23x payout on PrizePicks if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for the New Mexico vs. Nevada game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your New Mexico vs. Nevada pick on the spread on PrizePicks.

Stats used in this article are from Game on Paper, PFF, and Two Deep unless stated otherwise.

The Lobos aren’t an offense that wants to air it out often with redshirt freshman QB Toa Fa’avae. Aside from Fa’avae having the 12th-most INTs (7) and the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.4%) of the 124 college QBs with 150 or more dropbacks, New Mexico’s offense is in the 11th percentile in EPA/pass (-0.12).

On the other hand, the Lobos excel at running the ball and have a stout defense. New Mexico’s offense is in the 80th percentile in EPA/rush (0.11), with Fa’avae, RB Scottre Humphrey, and RB Kiefer Sibley all contributing at least 390 rushing yards.

Teams have struggled to generate much offense against the Lobos, who reside in the 98th percentile in EPA/pass (-0.22) and the 96th percentile in EPA/rush allowed (-0.15). Currently, New Mexico has the lowest payout to win the Mountain West Championship (1.63x) on PrizePicks.

The Wolf Pack also struggle to throw the ball, ranking in the fifth percentile in EPA/pass (-0.16). At the same time, Nevada is in the 66th percentile in EPA/rush (0.09).

In Week 9 against #8 UCLA, the Wolf Pack were blanked in a 27-0 defeat. Nevada has faced four conference opponents this season, and it's lost to both Mountain West foes with a winning record (Air Force, North Dakota State).

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New Mexico vs. Nevada Prediction on the Spread – 11/6/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our New Mexico vs. Nevada prediction on the spread for Friday, November 6’s game. 

• While the Lobos want to pound the rock, the Wolf Pack’s defense is in just the 48th percentile in EPA/rush (0.04).
• Comparatively, Nevada’s defense is in the 76th percentile in EPA/pass (-0.06).
• Meanwhile, Nevada’s defense resides in the 69th percentile in EPA/pass (-0.03) and the 54th percentile in EPA/rush allowed (0.02).
• New Mexico has the best overall record against the spread (6-2) in the Mountain West Conference.
• The Lobos are also 5-2 against the spread (ATS) when playing as the favorite in 2026.
• The Wolf Pack were 22.5-point underdogs in Week 8 against a ranked UCLA team, and they failed to cover the spread.

Lock in your New Mexico vs. Nevada prediction on PrizePicks now!

New Mexico vs. Nevada Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/6/26

Here are the top New Mexico vs. Nevada picks to target on Friday, November 6. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include Kiefer Sibley and Dominic Kelley.

New Mexico RB Kiefer Sibley vs. Nevada: 63.5 Rush Yards

• Sibley has rushed for at least 87 yards in three straight games despite sharing backfield touches with Humphrey.
• This season, Sibley has been the more explosive back in New Mexico’s offense.
• While handling 31 fewer attempts than Humphrey, Sibley leads the Lobos in yards per attempt (6.2), yards after contact per attempt (4.04), and missed tackles forced (24).
• Once again, Nevada’s defense is much weaker against the run than the pass.

Add Kiefer Sibley to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Nevada RB Dominic Kelley vs. New Mexico: 51.5 Rush Yards

• While Kelley is the lead back for the Wolf Pack, he’s been less productive than RB Herschel Turner.
• Kelley has the fewest yards per attempt (5.0) and yards after contact per attempt (3.31) among Nevada’s RBs.
• Against a ranked UCLA squad in Week 8, Kelley tallied just 6 rushing yards on 7 attempts.
• Of the 138 FBS schools, New Mexico allows the 10th-fewest yards per attempt (3.9).

Add Dominic Kelley to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make New Mexico vs. Nevada Picks on PrizePicks

New Mexico has already achieved history by becoming ranked in the AP Poll for the first time in school history, but the program shouldn’t be satisfied. With the Lobos leaning on their effective ground game and stout defense, they’re in a stellar spot to handle the Wolf Pack on the road in Week 10.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your New Mexico vs. Nevada picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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