College football provides perhaps the best slate of the season in Week 10, headlined by seven top-25 matchups following the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season. That features five (!) top-15 battles, beginning with #9 BYU vs. #3 Utah at 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
This is the most significant Holy War to date, with BYU and Utah colliding in a top-10 matchup for the first time in the rivalry’s history. Alongside a benchmark matchup for this in-state rivalry dating back to 1896, both teams are firmly in contention for a Big 12 championship and a CFP berth.
The stakes are higher than ever in one of college football’s greatest rivalries. Expect a ruckus crowd, high intensity, and plenty of punch behind the 2026 edition of the Holy War.
Below, we’ll dive into the matchup for our BYU vs. Utah prediction, followed by player projections on PrizePicks.
Make your BYU vs. Utah picks for the Holy War on PrizePicks now!
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#9 BYU vs. #3 Utah Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Holy War – Saturday, November 7
Utah is a 4.5-point favorite for the spread, paired with a 1.49x payout to win on PrizePicks — or a $149 payout on a $100 entry if you’re right.
Here are the full payouts for BYU vs. Utah, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your BYU vs. Utah prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!
On October 17, BYU’s 28-24 win over then-#2 Notre Dame was one of the Cougars’ best wins in program history, rivaling 1990’s win over #1 Miami.
However, the Cougs followed that with a letdown 39-31 overtime loss as 7.5-point favorites vs. UCF on October 24. Last week, BYU bounced back in a 27-20 win over Arizona State, but it failed to cover the spread as 17.5-point favorites.
Utah has done nothing but smash expectations over the last two weeks, leading to its highest ranking in the CFP era. The Utes grabbed a signature 21-13 win over #17 Houston on October 24, followed by an absurd 49-25 win as 7.5-point favorites vs. Cincinnati.
Keep in mind Utah was up 42-6 at halftime vs. the Bearcats! And this was a Cincy team coming off a 37-24 win over #15 Texas Tech.
According to PrizePicks, Utah (2.17x) and BYU (4.54x) have the shortest payouts to win the Big 12 championship game. This is especially key for the Cougars, as Texas Tech is hot on their heels with a 4.54x payout to win the Big 12 title; a loss would likely put BYU behind Texas Tech in the standings.
The Utes have much more room for a loss, supported by a 1.44x payout to quality for the CFP. The Cougars, meanwhile, have work to do with a 2.7x payout to make the playoffs, per PrizePicks.
BYU vs. Utah Injury Report for Holy War – Saturday, November 7
Alongside postseason storylines and the rich history of the Holy War, injuries will be a major piece of this matchup. BYU star RB LJ Martin has been out with a lower-body injury since a game vs. TCU on October 3. As of this writing, the Big 12 availability report has Martin as doubtful, but ESPN reported on Wednesday night that Martin is, “trending toward dressing and being available.”
Martin posted 344 rushing yards over four games this season, but only three of those contests featured 20 or more snaps, per Pro Football Focus. Further, only two games had double-digit touches due to Week 1’s lopsided 63-7 win over Utah Tech. Martin racked up 17.5 rushing attempts and 137.0 rushing yards per game (7.8 yards per carry) in Weeks 2 and 3.
With that said, keep a close eye on Martin’s availability leading up to this game. He’s one of the nation’s best running backs; if he sees the field at all, that’s a major boost to BYU’s 54.13% rush play rate (65th percentile).
Cougars starting CB Evan Johnson and starting TE Roger Saleapaga II are both doubtful as well.
The Utes are battling some injuries on the offensive line, as OG Kelvin Obot — who was a big-time get as a top-50 player on most recruiting sites — is out for the season with a lower-leg injury. Plus, OG Isaiah Garcia has already been ruled out, harming the unit’s depth.
In preparation for perhaps the best Holy War yet, let’s break down the stats and numbers behind our BYU vs. Utah prediction.
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BYU vs. Utah Prediction on Spread for CFB Week 10 – 11/7/26
If you’re a fan of physical, tough football, this one’s for you — especially with the rivalry element adding a layer of animosity.
According to TeamRankings, each team looks to control the run game, with BYU’s 54.13% rush play in the 65th percentile compared to Utah’s 53.61% (58th percentile). Both offenses have mobile quarterbacks: BYU QB Bachmeier (336 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs) and Utah QB Devon Dampier (393 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs).
Utah has an exceptional RB in Wayshawn Parker, as he boasts 726 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs, and 6.7 yards per carry. If LJ Martin is active, BYU has its counterpunch to answer the Utes’ balanced ground attack.
On defense, it’s neck and neck, with the Cougars allowing 3.5 YPC (83rd percentile) and the Utes yielding 3.6 YPC (77th percentile). This is like pulling straws, so where can we find a potential edge in the run games?
Game on Paper leans with Utah in efficiency. BYU is 33rd nationally out of 138 FBS teams with a 47.5% rush success rate on offense, behind the Utes’ 48.6% (22nd). Further, Utah gives up a 41.0% rush success rate on defense (75th percentile) — ahead of the Cougs’ concerning 45.0% (47th percentile).
According to Fourth and Short, the Utes are also getting better offensive line play courtesy of 3.3 line yards per rushing attempt (85th percentile), which measures an offensive line’s ability to generate push. BYU’s 3.1 line yards per carry sits in the 64th percentile. The Cougars’ 19.2% stuff rate on defense (70th) is also behind Utah’s 20.8% (46th).
Ultimately, Utes efficiency in the run game is more trustworthy on both sides of the ball — especially when LJ Martin’s status is up in the air. Moreover, BYU’s -0.4 turnover margin per game (30th percentile) is dangerous in a rowdy road environment.
Even key downs are a worry, with the Cougs 24th in average third-down distance on offense and 45th on defense. You guessed it — Utah wins this, too, ranking second and 14th nationally in average third-down distance on offense and defense.
After the last two weeks, Utah is entering dark horse national championship territory. According to PrizePicks, the Utes have a 22.22x payout to win the national championship.
Lock in your BYU vs. Utah prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!
BYU vs. Utah Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 11/7/26
Today’s BYU vs. Utah picks are headlined by Bear Bachmeier and Devon Dampier on PrizePicks.
BYU Bear Bachmeier vs. Utah: 214.5 Pass Yards
- We’ve stressed how outmatched BYU could be, but it’s not all doom and gloom in the Holy War. Utah’s secondary is vulnerable thanks to a 1.74 pass explosiveness rate allowed (ninth percentile).
- That translates to the Utes conceding 6.9 yards per passing attempt (46th) and 244.7 passing yards per game (101st). That could be further elevated if BYU finds itself in a negative game script on the road.
- LJ Martin has missed the last four games, and in those contests, Bear Bachmeier tallied 32.0 passing attempts per game compared to 21.5 in his first four outings.
- That increase in usage led to surpassing this projection in four straight games, featuring 261.5 passing yards per contest in the four-game sample size.
Add Bear Bachmeier to your PrizePicks lineup now!
Utah QB Devon Dampier vs. BYU: 46.5 Rush Yards
- Over the last four games, Devon Dampier’s rushing usage has notably increased to 12.3 carries per game, compared to 8.5 in his first four games of the season.
- That’s led to Dampier averaging 64.5 rushing yards in his last four.
- As usual, we have to consider sacks since that counts for a college QB’s rushing yard total. BYU sports a low 6.16% sack rate (46th percentile), and its front seven generates only a 9.6% havoc rate (54th percentile).
- Utah allows a comforting 4.33% sack rate (20.3%), and Dampier’s 32.5 dropbacks per game in the last two declined from 37.3 over his first three Big 12 contests of 2026.
- Among Big 12 QBs with at least 37 rushing attempts this season, Dampier’s 24 forced missed tackles and 18 10+ yard runs are third in the conference.
Pick Devon Dampier + Utah to win on PrizePicks!
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Make BYU vs. Utah Picks on PrizePicks
In what’s gearing up to be a legendary Holy War, BYU vs. Utah has major implications for the Big 12 championship and CFP races. For the Cougars, this feels like a must-win game in their rival’s backyard. Will BYU do enough despite the stats pointing to a tall task vs. the Utes?
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your BYU vs. Utah picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.
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