On Wednesday evening, two-time US Open semifinalist Frances Tiafoe will look to extend his stay in New York against Japanese qualifier Rei Sakamoto in the second round.
Tiafoe finished runner-up at the Cincinnati Open ahead of this event, but he was pushed to five sets in his first-round match against fellow American Martin Damm. Could he have his hands full once again vs. Sakamoto?
Below, we’ll break down our Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Wednesday’s match now!
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Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Second Round
Below are the payouts for who will win Wednesday’s Sakamoto vs. Tiafoe match, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
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Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe US Open Prediction – Wednesday, September 2
Match Winner Payouts: Sakamoto 3.84x | Tiafoe 1.23x
Tournament Round: Second Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Sakamoto 1-3 | Tiafoe 37-16
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
After a run to the Cincinnati Open final helped turn around an otherwise underwhelming summer, Frances Tiafoe likely entered the US Open with renewed confidence in a wide-open men’s field.
However, he quickly got a reality check in the first round, as Martin Damm refused to go away quietly and forced Tiafoe to dig deep for a 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory.
Damm aced Tiafoe 28 times, and while Tiafoe ultimately survived the onslaught, he finished with just a 157-156 advantage in total points won.
Next up for Tiafoe is a qualifier short on tour-level experience but armed with a potent serve that could give him fits.
In qualifying, which features best-of-three matches, Rei Sakamoto tallied 18, 8, and 19 aces in his three victories. Then, in the first round, he racked up 38 aces against Aleksandar Vukic in his own five-set thriller.
Despite playing predominantly in Challenger events this season, Sakamoto has shown he can rise to the occasion when provided the opportunity to face top-flight competition.
At the Australian Open, he took teenage phenom Rafael Jodar to five sets before falling, then went up a set against Daniil Medvedev at the Miami Open before fading in three. Both opponents currently rank inside the top 15.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Tiafoe still deserves to be a sizable favorite, as he ranks 14th on hard courts and projects to win 90.0% of the time. The 20-year-old Sakamoto will also be competing in just his third main-draw match at a major and is just 2-6 in tour-level matches.
Still, Tiafoe appeared vulnerable in his narrow win on Monday, and he could be in for another long day at the office if Sakamoto continues to serve well.
Make your Sakamoto vs. Tiafoe US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Rei Sakamoto vs. Frances Tiafoe for the US Open on Wednesday
Sakamoto vs. Tiafoe Pick – 38 Total Games
Both players went the distance in the first round. Tiafoe’s victory went 48 total games, while Sakamoto’s reached 52.
In Sakamoto's previous main-draw match at a major, his defeat to Jodar at the Australian Open totaled 51 games.
Despite Sakamoto’s poor record in tour-level matches, his last seven have all featured a tiebreak, and he’s won at least one set in five of them. All of those encounters came on hard courts as well.
Tiafoe is often susceptible to getting aced. On hard courts this year, he’s been aced 13.5% of the time, which is the second-worst mark among the top 50 players.
Across 11 Grand Slam matches in 2026, Tiafoe's matches have finished in straight sets only twice.
Pick Tiafoe to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
American Frances Tiafoe has made deep runs at the US Open multiple times, and he's hoping to do so again in 2026. After a close call in the first round, can he avoid another scare against Rei Sakamoto tonight?
Don’t wait until Wednesday’s matches start—make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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