Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for AL Wild Card Game 1 – 9/29/26

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees open their best-of-three AL Wild Card Series at 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 29, airing on NBC. 

It looked like a lost season for the first three months of the season for these Red Sox, but a historic 15-game win streak in July would entirely change the narrative and help propel them to claim the second wild card spot.

For the Yankees, their appearance in this postseason is less surprising. However, their most pressing issue is the continued absence of OF Aaron Judge (calf), who hasn’t played since September 16 and has been left off the wild card roster. 

PrizePicks gives the Yankees a 1.69x payout to win tonight. Who comes out on top tonight?

Below, we'll break down our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Tuesday’s AL Wild Card matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Red Sox vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now!

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Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for AL Wild Card

In Game 1, we could have a pitching duel on our hands between Red Sox SP Payton Tolle and Yankees SP Cam Schlittler, and PrizePicks has your back with injury protection on starting pitcher picks throughout the 2026 MLB Playoffs.

Tolle will be making his first career postseason start, and it’s well-deserved following a stellar regular season. The 23-year-old southpaw logged a 3.03 ERA over 23 starts, and that was backed by a 2.70 xERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, and 6.6% walk rate.

In addition to racking up the punchouts and limiting walks, he also did a good job of suppressing hard contact, recording a 6.0% barrel rate (77th percentile) and 34.5% hard-hit rate (79th percentile), per Baseball Savant. 

Despite being a rookie, the lefty appears ready for the moment.

Fans of these teams certainly haven’t forgotten Schlittler’s performance in Game 3 of last year’s Wild Card Series, as he helped end Boston’s season by striking out 12 batters over 8.0 scoreless innings.  

The right-hander has been lights out in 2026, boasting a 1.95 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across 33 starts. Those marks are supported by a 31.4% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate, and while his xERA is “just” 2.85, that’s still up in the 93rd percentile.

If there’s any slight knock on Schlittler, it’s that he’s been roughly league average in barrel rate (7.3%) and hard-hit rate (38.3%).

At the plate, the advantage has to go to the Yankees despite still being without Judge. In the regular season, New York ranked eighth in runs per game (4.59) and racked up the league’s second-most home runs (223). They also finished eighth in team xwOBA (.319), third in hard-hit rate (41.5%), and first in barrel rate (9.5%). This all came with Judge playing only 66 games.

The Red Sox’s red-hot play this summer boosted their season-long hitter numbers, but they still finished just 23rd in runs per game (4.25) and 26th in home runs (163). They were also in the bottom third in xwOBA (.309), hard-hit rate (35.6%), and barrel rate (7.3%).

Red Sox vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, September 29

The Yankees enter Tuesday’s game as a home favorite against the Red Sox, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the Red Sox vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

Make your Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction on the Over/Under for AL Wild Card – 9/29/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction on the over/under for Tuesday, September 29.

• In two starts against the Yankees this season, Tolle has given up just 1 earned run over 13.0 innings with 18 Ks.
• Similarly, Schlittler has already faced the Red Sox four times this year, allowing 2 earned runs over 24.1 innings with 27 strikeouts.
• Relief pitching should be a strength for these teams, as Boston finished first in bullpen ERA (3.00) while New York was right behind them in second (3.15). 
• Each bullpen also posted a 3.63 xERA, which was tied for the league’s fifth-best mark. 
• Boston’s bats slumped badly in September, posting MLB’s third-worst wRC+ (81) and fourth-worst xwOBA (.296).
• While the Yankees were much better at the plate this month, they still posted a mediocre .308 xwOBA.
• Temperatures will be below 70 degrees at Yankee Stadium tonight, and the wind won’t be a factor.  

Lock in your Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/29/26

For Taco Tuesday on PrizePicks, offering multiple discounted player projections selected by the community, Yankees SP Cam Schlitter's 7 projected strikeouts are discounted to 4.5 vs. the Red Sox for a limited time.

Here are the top Red Sox vs. Yankees picks to target on PrizePicks on Tuesday, September 29. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Cam Schlittler and Ben Rice.

Yankees SP Cam Schlittler vs. Red Sox: 22.5 Batters Faced

• Schlittler has faced 23 or more batters in 21 of his 33 starts this season. 
• In four starts versus Boston this year, the 25-year-old has faced 28, 22, 25, and 24 batters.  
• The right-hander has pitched at least 6.0 innings in 20 of his 33 starts.
• He’s fallen below 92 pitches in only nine of his outings.
• Since the All-Star break, Schlittler has produced a 2.57 xERA with a 34.9% K rate.
• The Red Sox put up a 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, which ranked just 22nd.
• Boston ranked last in hard-hit rate (31.7%) this past month.

Add Cam Schlittler + Yankees to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Yankees 1B Ben Rice vs. Red Sox: 5 Fantasy Score

• Rice wrapped up the regular season with 41 home runs, which was tied for the sixth-most in MLB. He also tallied the fifth-most runs (105) and 11th-most RBIs (97).
• He's been scorching hot this month, posting a .450 wOBA and .272 ISO in September.
• This season, Rice has put up a .378 xwOBA (96th percentile), .511 xSLG (97th percentile), and 14.3% barrel rate (94th percentile).
• Although he'll begin the game with a lefty-lefty matchup against Tolle, the Boston pitcher actually has a much lower 22.5% strikeout rate in same-handed matchups.
• Rice has produced a rock-solid 117 wRC+ when facing southpaws this year.
• Even with a left-hander starting, Rice projects to still bat high in the order.

Pick Ben Rice + Yankees to win on PrizePicks!

Make Red Sox vs. Yankees Picks on PrizePicks

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees add another chapter to their AL East rivalry. Which team takes Game 1 in this AL Wild Card matchup?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Red Sox vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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