Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Pick for US Open – Wednesday, September 9

The US Open quarterfinals wrap up on Wednesday, and the opening match of the day will be Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina.

Zheng has continued her improbable run as a qualifier after taking out Iga Swiatek in the round of 16. The Olympic gold medalist has struggled to find her form all year following last year’s elbow surgery, but she’s begun to look like her old self here in New York. 

Meanwhile, Rybakina just put on a clinic after emphatically knocking out Naomi Osaka in straight sets. She’s now one win away from securing the world No. 1 ranking for the first time.  

Below, we’ll break down our Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Wednesday’s match now!

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Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Quarterfinals

Below are the payouts for who will win Wednesday’s Zheng vs. Rybakina match, via PrizePicks. 

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction for US Open – Wednesday, September 9

Match Winner Payouts: Zheng 3.22x | Rybakina 1.31x
Tournament Round: Quarterfinals
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Zheng 11-13 | Rybakina 42-13
Head-to-Head Record: Rybakina leads 4-1
Scheduled Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN

After surviving a match against Madison Keys where she was down 0-5 in the third set, Qinwen Zheng opened with an 0-5 deficit against Iga Swiatek. She went on to win 7-5, 6-3 anyway.

Zheng continues to survive and advance during this surprise run as a qualifier. Despite the close calls, it’s a reminder that this is a player who was once ranked inside the top five and has reached a Grand Slam final. This is also her third time reaching the US Open quarterfinals.

However, Zheng now runs into a buzzsaw in Elena Rybakina.

Rybakina was lights out in the round of 16 against Naomi Osaka, dominating from start to finish in a 6-1, 6-4 victory. The world No. 2 overwhelmed Osaka on serve, winning 87% of her first-serve points and 50% of her second-serve points. Rybakina saved the lone break point she faced.

If Rybakina continues to serve like this, Zheng could be in trouble. Not only has Rybakina won all four matches in straight sets, but she’s been broken just three times. She’s done all this despite still managing a foot injury she suffered at the Cincinnati Open, too. 

Rybakina is 33-7 on hard courts this year, winning the Australian Open and finishing runner-up at Indian Wells and Toronto. Two of her seven losses have come via retirement, too, showing just how difficult she’s been to defeat when healthy. 

On the other hand, Zheng hadn’t won more than two 2026 matches in a row on any surface before coming to New York, demonstrating just how shocking this deep run has been.  

Given their contrasting seasons ahead of this event, it isn’t surprising to see Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings heavily favor Rybakina, projecting her to win 85.2% of the time. 

Zheng has clearly turned a corner that could give her much-needed momentum for the rest of the year. However, Rybakina’s level might be too much to overcome, particularly with Zheng needing to dig herself out of massive holes in back-to-back matches just to make it here.   

Make your Zheng vs. Rybakina US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina Pick for the US Open on Wednesday

Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.

Rybakina has scored 24.5, 23.5, 25.5, and 26 fantasy points over the first four rounds. She hasn’t dropped a set while tallying 32 aces compared to 9 double faults.

Zheng has lost four out of five career matches against Rybakina. Two of those losses have come in 2026, and while both went to a third set, Rybakina still scored 19 and 19.5 fantasy points.

On hard courts in 2026, Rybakina has won 63.9% of her service points with an 81.9% hold rate. Both of those marks rank second among the top 50 players. She's also posted the third-best ace rate on the surface (9.8%).

Rybakina Pick – 20 Fantasy Score

Pick Rybakina to win + fantasy score on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

A rejuvenated Qinwen Zheng has enjoyed a miraculous run to the quarterfinals, but an in-form Elena Rybakina is up next. Can Zheng pull off another upset, or will Rybakina finally put an end to the qualifier's tournament? 

Don’t wait until Wednesday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.