Thursday’s US Open night session on Arthur Ashe Stadium opens with Coco Gauff facing Badosa in the second round. Gauff is among the favorites to win the US Open but will now face a player who leads their head-to-head 5-3. Could Badosa give Gauff a stiff challenge tonight?
Below, we’ll break down our Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Thursday’s match now!
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Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Second Round
Below are the payouts for who will win Thursday’s Badosa vs. Gauff match, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
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On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff US Open Prediction – Thursday, September 3
Match Winner Payouts: Badosa 5.88x | Gauff 1.11x
Tournament Round: Second Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Badosa 22-17 | Gauff 40-13
Head-to-Head Record: Badosa leads 5-3
Scheduled Time: 7 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN2
Coco Gauff arrived at the US Open in fantastic form, reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon and the Canadian Open before most recently lifting the trophy in Cincinnati.
Including her straight-sets win over Zeynep Sonmez in the first round, the American has now gone 16-2 over this stretch, with her only losses coming against top-10 players Karolina Muchova and Elena Rybakina in three-set matches.
She’ll now face Paula Badosa, a former world No. 2 who’s beaten Gauff in five of their eight meetings, including their last two. The most recent defeat came in Berlin, just before Gauff’s semifinal run at Wimbledon.
However, this doesn’t tell the full story, as Badosa has been held back by injuries the past few years, with her ranking dropping as low as No. 142 this season.
Following a first-round exit at Wimbledon, Badosa elected to play in three clay tournaments, and the move ultimately paid off, as the Spaniard would go on to win a WTA 125 title in Bastad and finish runner-up in Iasi. The positive results would push her back into the top 100 for the first time since February.
However, Badosa wasn’t able to compete in any of the North American hard-court events in August due to undergoing a small procedure, once again putting her fitness in question ahead of the US Open.
Despite the numerous setbacks, Badosa was sharp in her first-round match against Daria Kasatkina, winning 6-1, 6-4 in straight sets.
Unfortunately for Badosa, even that dominant performance wasn’t entirely straightforward, as rain suspended play just before she could close things out, forcing her to wait until Wednesday to finish the job.
Given everything that’s worked against her this year, Badosa may be up against it to upset Gauff despite their history. Even with her first-round win, Badosa is only 15-16 in tour-level matches in 2026, and her three-set win over Gauff in Berlin is her lone top-20 victory.
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, the American has a sizable advantage on paper, with the model giving her an 86.1% chance of winning.
Make your Badosa vs. Gauff US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff for the US Open on Thursday
In the eight matches between these two, Badosa has won 12, 5, 13, 12, 12, 12, 13, and 13 games. Three of their last four matches have gone to a deciding third set.
In Badosa's first-round match, she dominated the stat sheet, winning 63% of her first-serve points, 64% of her second-serve points, and 47% of her return points. She also wasn't broken once by Kasatkina.
The Spaniard went 11-2 over her last three events before the US Open. Nine of her wins were in straight sets.
Badosa was ranked inside the top 10 as recently as last summer before her injury struggles, a reminder of her ceiling when she's healthy.
Badosa Pick – 7 Total Games Won
Pick Gauff to win + Badosa total games won on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
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Paula Badosa and Coco Gauff headline a compelling matchup on Thursday night. Will the American favorite advance, or can Badosa continue her recent success against Gauff?
Don’t wait until Thursday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 36 states!
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.
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