#2 Ohio State vs. USC Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 31

Saturday, October 31, features the top two teams in college football away from home on Halloween night. Both teams hope to avoid a scare in conference play, including #2 Ohio State visiting USC for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on NBC.

According to PrizePicks, Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite on the spread. That follows the Buckeyes’ 19-15 win as 2.5-point favorites on the road vs. then-#5 Indiana two weeks ago. Expectations have shifted, with Ohio State QB Julian Sayin out indefinitely from an elbow injury.

Are the Buckeyes on upset alert? Let’s break down our Ohio State vs. USC prediction, including who is Ohio State’s new starting QB and player projections on PrizePicks.

Make your Ohio State vs. USC picks on PrizePicks now! 

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#2 Ohio State vs. USC Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for CFB Week 9 – Saturday, October 31

Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite for the spread, paired with a 1.38x payout to win on PrizePicks — or a $138 payout on a $100 entry if you’re right.

Here are the full payouts for Ohio State vs. USC, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Ohio State vs. USC prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!

The main storyline going into this matchup is who Ohio State puts under center. QBs Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair are the backups, and both players have yet to start a game over their careers.

Fahey is a true freshman three-star recruit and replaced Julian Sayin vs. Indiana. However, St. Clair was a five-star recruit in the 2025 class and is in his second year in the program. Head coach Ryan Day has stated both QBs will be ready to play and have received plenty of reps since Sayin’s injury.

Fahey has been the second-string QB for the entire season, so more than likely, we’ll see the true freshman get his first career start on Saturday night. Of course, that could mean a more passive game plan from the offense. 

The Buckeyes may look to control the game through the run and quality defense. It helps that USC comes off a poor 24-7 loss vs. Wisconsin, in which the Trojan offense stumbled to 239 total yards and 2 turnovers.

OSU has other injury concerns alongside Sayin’s absence, as RB Ja’Kobi Jackson is out while WR Brandon Inniss and CB Jay Timmons are questionable, via the Big Ten availability report. For USC, DT Jahkeem Stewart and TE Mark Bowman are questionable.

The injuries in the run game especially catch the eye. Jackson was arguably the Buckeyes’ best back before undergoing surgery for a Lisfranc injury, and Stewart is key in the Trojans' rush D.  

Sayin’s status is indefinitely out; there’s a real scenario he’s out for the season. If that’s the case, Saturday night holds a ton of weight for what this offense looks like going forward.

Meanwhile, USC comes off a disappointing 17-point loss as 2.5-point favorites vs. Wisconsin. However, a win over #2 Ohio State could turn the Trojans’ season around. If USC has any hopes of making the College Football Playoff (an 11.11x payout on PrizePicks), it can’t lose again, with upcoming matchups vs. #4 Indiana and #7 UCLA.

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Ohio State vs. USC Prediction on Spread – 10/31/26

USC truly comes off an all-time low, scoring only 7 points vs. Wisconsin. That was the lowest total across Lincoln Riley’s head coaching career. 

According to Game on Paper, Ohio State carries +0.34 adjusted EPA per play (third nationally), while USC’s +0.05 is 56th out of 138 FBS teams. Frankly, these teams aren’t close. The spread likely sits at only 6.5 points due to the Buckeyes’ uncertainty at QB.

Riley still can’t master the concept of defense, with USC allowing 25.0 PPG (53rd percentile) and 5.5 yards per play (49th percentile). Ohio State may lean on the run more going forward, and the Trojans cede a 46.8% rush success rate (27th percentile). 

According to Fourth and Short, the Trojans produced only an 18.4% stuff rate (43rd percentile), and that could only get worse if DT Jahkeem Stewart is out. Wisconsin racked up 142 rushing yards vs. USC last week.

Frankly, we can’t ignore USC allowing 8.1 yards per passing attempt (24th percentile) and a 1.68 pass explosiveness rate (17th percentile). The Trojans are tasked with defending Heisman Trophy candidate WR Jeremiah Smith. 

Even with a new starting QB, Ohio State will likely look to feed Smith. If there’s one positive about the potential switch to QB Luke Fahey, he’s been consistently praised for his IQ and ability to go through progressions in the pocket.

USC comes off a 7-point showing and battles an OSU defense that allows 13.4 PPG (98th percentile) and a 36.4% success rate (96th percentile). The Trojans lean on a 52.62% pass play rate (78th percentile), and the Buckeyes allow 5.2 yards per passing attempt (first nationally) with an 18.2% havoc rate (80th percentile) that gets most of their success from blitz packages.

If USC cannot slow Ohio State’s run game and Jeremiah Smith, it could be in store for a lopsided result. College Football Nerds’ model is projecting a 38.2-19.5 final in favor of Ohio State. 

Lock in your Ohio State vs. USC prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!

Ohio State vs. USC Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 10/31/26

Today’s Ohio State vs. Indiana picks are headlined by WR Jeremiah Smith and WR Trent Mosley on PrizePicks.

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith vs. USC: 94.5 Receiving Yards

• As mentioned, Ohio State could lean on the run, but RB Bo Jackson is projected for a lofty 89.5 rushing yards. The Buckeyes may look to get RBs Isaiah West and Legend Bey involved following Jackson’s 3.1 yards per carry vs. Indiana.
• With that said, player projections toward the passing game, and who better than Jeremiah Smith? 
• OSU has found ways to utilize Smith, like putting him in motion, throwing screens, popping reverse passes, and more. All of that may be on show with a new starting QB on Saturday night. 
• As mentioned, USC is 115th nationally in pass explosiveness rating allowed, and Smith posts 18.9 yards per catch.
• Smith was held to a season-low 68 receiving yards vs. Indiana, but he’s still averaging 140.6 yards per game.

Pick Jeremiah Smith + Ohio State to win on PrizePicks!

USC WR Trent Mosley vs. Ohio State: 65.5 Receiving Yards

• CB Jay Timmons has been one of Ohio State’s best defensive players this season. He often lines up in the slot as a nickelback, but he’s questionable for Saturday.
• If Timmons is out, that benefits WR Trent Mosley, who has an 84.7% slot snap rate, per Pro Football Focus.
• Mosley averages 82.2 receiving yards per game, reaching 100 yards in three of five games. His 6.7 yards after catch per reception is something to watch vs. Ohio State, which gives up a 1.57 pass explosiveness rating (40th percentile).
• This excellent Buckeyes secondary can be beaten when the defensive line lacks. The front seven produces a low 9.1% havoc rate (41st percentile), and USC allows only an 11.7% havoc rate (88th percentile).
• USC QB Jayden Maiava is one of the Big Ten’s best, proven by 287.9 passing yards per game and 8.3 yards per passing attempt. Mosley is a good way to find exposure to Maiaiva, especially if USC ends up in a negative game script.

Add Trent Mosley to your PrizePicks lineup now!

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Make Ohio State vs. USC Picks on PrizePicks

Ohio State and USC have plenty of questions ahead of Saturday night. Are the Buckeyes still good enough to contend for a national title with a new starting QB? Can Lincoln Riley extend his stay in Los Angeles with a signature win? 

Ohio State’s run game could be the biggest key to tonight’s matchup. If the Buckeyes keep struggling to run the rock, USC should be in business. 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Ohio State vs. USC picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.