Texas State vs. #20 Boise State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 31

Week 9 of the college football season features a plethora of matchups involving ranked teams, including Texas State and #20 Boise State on Saturday, October 31, at 10 p.m. ET.

Ahead of Saturday night’s Pac-12 kickoff on CW, the Broncos are decent-sized home favorites over the Bobcats and return a 1.21x payout to win on PrizePicks.

Texas State enters Week 9 on a two-game winning streak, defeating Utah State 20-17 in Week 8. Since suffering a narrow 7-point loss to Oregon in Week 1, meanwhile, Boise State has won 6 straight games.

Below, we'll break down our Texas State vs. Boise State prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game, including the winner, spread, and over/under on PrizePicks.

Make your Texas State vs. Boise State picks on PrizePicks now!

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Texas State vs. #20 Boise State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 31

Boise State enters Saturday’s game as a 10.5-point road favorite against Texas State, returning a 1.21x payout with a home victory.

Here are the full payouts for the Texas State vs. Boise State game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Texas State vs. Boise State prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Stats and data in this article are from PFF, Game on Paper, and The Two Deep unless stated otherwise.

Texas State can hold its own when it has possession, ranking in the 66th percentile in EPA/pass (0.15) and the 88th percentile in passing success rate (51.0%) with QB Brad Jackson leading the charge.

Of the 90 QBs with 200 or more dropbacks this season, Jackson has the 23rd-most yards per attempt (8.2) and passing TDs (14) but the 33rd-most INTs (5).

The Bobcats are also capable of pounding the rock, sitting in the 74th percentile in EPA/rush (0.11).

However, Texas State’s issues primarily reside on the defensive side of the ball. Across their first seven games, the Bobcats are in the 10th percentile in EPA/pass (0.27) and the 19th percentile in early-down EPA/play allowed (0.13).

As for Boise State, QB Maddux Madsen and the team’s RB Dylan Riley-led rushing attack have kept the offense operating smoothly. Entering Week 9, the Broncos’ offense is in the 88th percentile in EPA/pass (0.27) and the 95th percentile in EPA/rush (0.18).

Taking care of the football has been a major plus for Madsen, who is one of just two college signal-callers with 200+ dropbacks and no INTs to his name.

Although Boise State’s defense ranks in just the 34th percentile in EPA/rush allowed (0.07), it excels at limiting late-down conversions. The Broncos are impressively in the 98th percentile in late-down success rate allowed (30.9%).

Texas State vs. Boise State Prediction on Spread – 10/31/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Texas State vs. Boise State pick against the spread for Saturday, October 31.

• Once again, Madsen excels at taking care of the football, and Texas State is tied for the second-fewest takeaways per game (0.5) in the nation. 
• Texas State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27 or more points in five of its seven games.
• Boise State’s offense is 23rd in yards per play (6.3), while Texas State’s defense is 95th in yards per play allowed (5.8) out of 138 FBS schools.
• It could be tough for the Bobcats’ defense to get off the field on later downs, as the Broncos’ offense is in the 88th percentile in late-down success rate (52.6%).
• Texas State’s defense is in the 46th percentile in late-down success rate allowed (44.7%).
• When the Broncos have been favored by fewer than 19.5 points, they're 3-1 against the spread (ATS). Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 1-2 ATS over their last three games.

Lock in your Texas State vs. Boise State prediction on PrizePicks before Saturday’s game.

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Boise State is the only non-power conference program to be ranked right now, and they’ll look to extend their winning streak to seven games on Saturday night. With the Broncos turning things around since their season-opening loss to Oregon, they’re positioned well to take care of business at home against the Bobcats.

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