#23 Missouri vs. Arkansas Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 31

With Week 9 of the college football campaign in full swing, the cream of the crop in some of the top conferences is beginning to separate itself. For teams like #23 Missouri and Arkansas, that’s spelled bad news, as neither team’s season has unfolded quite according to plan thus far. 

Still, a 7:45 p.m. ET bout on SEC Network provides an opportunity for the Tigers to get back on track after a blowout loss and the Razorbacks to start their first winning streak of the year. With Missouri favored by 10.5 points on PrizePicks, which side comes out on top?

Below, we'll break down our Missouri vs. Arkansas prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and winner on PrizePicks.

Make your Missouri vs. Arkansas prediction on PrizePicks now.

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#23 Missouri vs. Arkansas Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 31

Missouri enters Saturday’s game as a 10.5-point road favorite against Arkansas, returning a 1.23x payout on PrizePicks if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Missouri vs. Arkansas game on PrizePicks.

Make your Missouri vs. Arkansas pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Missouri took a step back a year ago with head coach Eli Drinkwitz at the helm, going from 10-3 in 2024 to 8-5 in 2025. General inconsistency and an injury to QB Beau Pribula contributed to that, forcing the Tigers to be relatively one-dimensional on offense.

This offseason, QB Austin Simmons was brought in from Ole Miss, and he’s worked wonders for the Tigers. Entering Week 9, the senior has completed 63.2% of his passes for 1,773 yards, 14 TDs, and just 2 INTs. Missouri is a lethal offense when clicking, and that’s even while being down star RB Ahmad Hardy all year due to a gunshot wound.

RB Jamal Roberts’ 5.2 yards per carry helped keep the ground game afloat, and Hardy is now set to make his season debut on Saturday. College football’s 53rd-ranked scoring offense (31.1 PPG) gets a considerable boost for the second half of the season, complementing a defense that, per Game on Paper, is 23rd in net EPA/drive. 

Drinkwitz’s Tigers peaked as high as 13 in the AP poll, also taking down #8 Florida 45-17 on October 3, but momentum has slowed down significantly. A 31-3 throttling at the hands of #9 Ole Miss two weekends ago contributed to that in a big way.

In that contest, Simmons completed 25 of 44 passes with no TDs and a single INT. Mizzou mustered just 39 rushing yards on 26 carries, also going 6-for-17 on third down.

Arkansas, meanwhile, decided it was time for fresh blood after the duo of Sam Pittman and Bobby Petrino led the program to just a 2-10 record a season ago. In is HC Ryan Silverfield from Memphis, and while the results are far from perfect, they’re noticeably better.

Arkansas went from surrentering 33.8 PPG last year to a more manageable 26.7 this campaign. The Hogs’ offense has fallen flat, sitting 104th in success rate at 41.4% and failing to score 20 points in four of seven contests. The program lives and dies by QB KJ Jackson, whose 60.9% completion clip and 7:4 TD:INT ratio leave some to be desired. Veteran RB Braylen Russell (3.5 YPC) has taken a step back.

The Razorbacks’ schedule hasn’t done them many favors to this point. Having to face #20 Utah and #2 Georgia in two of your first three games is never an easy feat, nor is taking down even this year’s version of Texas A&M or #15 Tennessee. 

Arkansas did finally bounce back two Saturdays ago by beating Vanderbilt on the road. In that 31-21 tilt, Jackson paced the team with 58 rushing yards and a TD, and his defense forced a pair of INTs on Vandy QB Jared Curtis.

These programs have squared off every year dating back to 2014. Missouri has ripped off four consecutive wins in the series, as well as nine of the last 10. In last year’s November 29 meeting, the Tigers covered and won on the road (31-17 final) as 4.5-point favorites. 

On the injury front, reserve Missouri RB Malae Fonoti is out with an injury. For Arkansas, standout offensive lineman Caden Kitler is missing this one. The biggest status to keep an eye on is that of WR Chris Marshall, who has a lower-body injury but is questionable on the availability report.

Here are some of the top PrizePicks player projections to keep an eye on in Saturday’s Missouri vs. Arkansas game:

• Missouri QB Austin Simmons vs. Arkansas: 234.5 Pass Yards
• Missouri RB Jamal Roberts vs. Arkansas: 110.5 Rush Yards
• Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy vs. Arkansas: 20.5 Rush Yards
• Arkansas QB KJ Jackson vs. Missouri: 207.5 Pass Yards
• Arkansas WR Chris Marshall vs. Missouri: 70.5 Rec Yards

Missouri vs. Arkansas Prediction on Spread – 10/31/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Missouri vs. Arkansas pick against the spread for Saturday, October 31’s game. 

• The Tigers are 1-0 against the spread as road favorites in 2026. The Razorbacks have an even 1-1 ATS record as home dogs and are 3-4 ATS overall on the year.
• Simply put, the Missouri offense is much more potent than that of Arkansas. It holds significant advantages in yards per play (6.0 to 4.8), QB sack rate (3.52% to 5.86%), yards per completion (13.2 to 10.9), and much more.
• While not necessarily elite, Missouri still sneaks into the top 50 programs in net success rate (+2.1%, 49th) via Game on Paper. Arkansas’ -6.1% figure is 118th out of 138 eligible FBS teams.
• According to College Football Data, Missouri’s 1.339 explosiveness mark is 16th in the nation. That might spell doom for an Arkansas defense that’s 117th in creating havoc, sporting a 13.2% ledger.
• Missouri routinely dominates the field position battle. Via Fourth and Short, it starts at the 33.0-yard line on offense and forces opponents to begin drives at the 25.3, both top-15 thresholds. Arkansas’ spots are 27.6 and 30.0.
• If this one comes down to the QB battle, the edge goes to Mizzou. Per Pro Football Focus, Simmons owns a 3.7% big-time throw rate with a 3.5% turnover-worthy play clip. Jackson’s respective marks are 2.6% and 4.2%. 
• Getting out to a good start on series is paramount for Arkansas, but there’s reason to believe that may not happen. Fourth Down Data shows that the Razorbacks are 119th in early-down EPA/play (-0.109), whereas the Tigers’ defense is sixth (-0.214). 
• Life on late downs could be extremely difficult for the Hogs on Saturday, too. They rank in just the fourth percentile in average third-down distance, with the Tigers’ defense slotting into the 74th percentile.
• Missouri also maintains an advantage in the red zone, sitting 25th in EPA/play on defense (-0.207) to Arkansas’ 104th-ranked -0.102 EPA/play on offense. 

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Following an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Ole Miss, the Tigers would be wise to right their wrongs in hostile territory on Saturday. The Razorbacks, meanwhile, are far removed from contention in the SEC but can pull themselves to .500 overall on the year with a triumphant outcome tonight.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Missouri vs. Arkansas picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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