Two weeks ago, #4 Ohio State escaped with a 19-15 win over #5 Indiana. But the Buckeyes didn’t win without bruises, as starting QB Julian Sayin suffered a elbow injury and was ruled indefinitely out.
Ohio State now ranks #2 nationally and travels to take on the USC Trojans on Saturday, October 31, at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Coming off a bye, the Buckeyes had time to prepare without Sayin under center, with Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair battling to become the starting QB vs. USC.
Will Fahey or St. Clair line up as OSU’s starting quarterback on Halloween night? We’ll break down who could be Ohio State’s starting QB, followed by the impact on college football picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Ohio State vs. USC prediction on PrizePicks now!
{{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Who Will Be Ohio State Football’s Starting Quarterback: Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair?
Ahead of Saturday night’s battle with USC, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day did not commit to Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair as the starting QB.
This aligned with Day’s comments throughout the week, such as stating, “Both will be ready to play,” on Wednesday. At the beginning of the week on Tuesday, Day said both QBs practiced well during the bye week, while pointing out Fahey was ahead of St. Clair before Week 7’s game vs. Indiana.
Despite Day's comments, Matt Zenitz of CBS Sports reported on Friday night that Fahey is expected to start.
Following Julian Sayin’s injury vs. Indiana, Fahey was the QB to come off the bench, taking 10 snaps in the fourth quarter. That was in line with Fahey as the first QB off the bench vs. Ball State (15 snaps), Kent State (12 snaps), and Maryland (3 snaps).
St. Clair’s 13 snaps in Week 1’s 56-3 final over Ball State was his longest appearance, followed by 6 snaps vs. Kent State in Week 3. Most signs have pointed to Fahey keeping the second-string job, but what does that mean for Ohio State's QB room?
Ohio State QB Depth Chart Without Julian Sayin
While Day did not announce the starter, most expected Fahey to start due to his appearance vs. Indiana. That led to much discourse, with many surprised by the Ohio State depth chart.
Fahey is a true freshman who was a three-star recruit and ranked as the 38th QB nationally by 247 Sports. Meanwhile, St. Clair is your prototypical Ohio State five-star recruit, ranked fourth nationally and as QB3 in the 2025 class.
St. Clair only took 13 total snaps in his true freshman season, but this is his second season in the program. Further, St. Clair brings NFL size standing at 6’4”, while Fahey is listed at 5’11”.
Positive reviews have emerged around Fahey, explaining why the true freshman has turned heads. For example, Fahey’s former coach Ryan Porter, who has coached QBs like Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Notre Dame QB CJ Carr, stated Fahey, “has a unique obsession with the quarterback position, and he’s going to do whatever it takes.”
The true freshman's immediate leap over the former five-star St. Clair has led to questions around Ohio State's development, and many have wondered what is holding St. Clair back.
Fahey will get his chance to silence those questions by turning in a quality performance as he returns home to California to clash with USC. Here's how the news could impact the remainder of the season and Ohio State vs. USC picks for PrizePicks.
Julian Sayin Injury & New Starting QB Impact on Ohio State vs. USC Picks
Julian Sayin’s elbow injury labeled as “out indefinitely” has only added to the discourse around this QB decision. Sayin is likely in store for a long-term absence, perhaps even extending to the postseason. That only puts more pressure on Saturday’s starting quarterback.
Ohio State comes off a top-five road win vs. Indiana, yet it now has the third-shortest payout to win the national championship (6.25x), behind Georgia (4.34x) and Miami (5.26x) on PrizePicks.
OSU’s chances to win the Big Ten championship also dipped, featuring a 2.04x payout compared to Indiana’s 2.77x. WR Jeremiah Smith, who will be catching passes from Fahey, saw his Heisman Trophy winner payout increase to 2.38x, per PrizePicks. Miami QB Darian Mensah (3.7x) and WR Malachi Toney (4x) are right on Smith’s heels for the Heisman.
A new starting quarterback for Ohio State has already made substantial impacts, and that extends to Saturday’s game vs. USC.
According to PrizePicks, the over/under is 51.5, which likely would’ve been higher if Sayin was in. Ohio State was a 2.5-point favorite on the spread vs. Indiana, yet it’s favored by only 6.5 points vs. an unranked USC — which comes off a 24-7 loss vs. Wisconsin.
Attention for player picks is likely turning to the run game. When Fahey was in vs. Indiana, he had 4 dropbacks out of 10 snaps and went 0 of 3 passing. Granted, Fahey was put into a tough spot against an excellent pass rush, so his role will likely expand following a bye.
Still, Fahey had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 4.0 yards vs. Indiana and 5.5 yards vs. Ball State, per Pro Football Focus. That's a massive drop-off from Sayin's 11.4 aDOT on the season, likely impacting Jeremiah Smith’s 94.5 projected receiving yards vs. USC, via PrizePicks.
Meanwhile, RB Bo Jackson is up to 89.5 projected rush yards for Saturday night. Keep in mind he’s averaging 73.7 rushing yards per game this season. According to Game on Paper, USC allows a 46.8% rush success rate, which is 101st out of 138 FBS teams.
In Fahey’s expected first start, Ohio State’s offense may keep it close to the vest and look to run the ball and play sound defense on Saturday night.
Lock in your Ohio State vs. USC picks on PrizePicks before kickoff!
{{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Make Ohio State vs. USC Picks on PrizePicks
Luke Fahey is reportedly set to be Ohio State’s starting QB vs. USC, despite Tavien St. Clair’s former five-star status as a recruit. The Buckeyes are hoping to avoid a nightmare on Halloween night, as a new starting quarterback under center adds to the challenge of tonight’s battle with USC.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Ohio State vs. USC picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
