North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Thursday, October 1

Just like that, we’re already into Week 5 of the 2026 college football season. The North Texas Mean Green vs. the Tulsa Golden Hurricane headline Thursday, October 1's action with a 9:00 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN, and PrizePicks lists North Texas as a 2.5-point favorite on the spread.

These teams are trending in opposite directions entering tonight. North Texas improved to 2-2 after finishing its nonconference schedule, while Tulsa suffered its first loss of the season in a 34-6 blowout loss vs. Arkansas.

Below, we'll break down our North Texas vs. Tulsa prediction and picks for Thursday's CFB game in Week 5, including the spread for PrizePicks.

Make your North Texas vs. Tulsa picks on PrizePicks now!

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North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 1

North Texas enters Thursday with one of the country's most explosive offenses. The Mean Green are averaging 516.0 total yards per game, which ranks ninth nationally, while their 342.0 passing yards per game sits seventh across the FBS.

QB Tayven Jackson, the UCF transfer, has thrown for 1,187 yards through four games, completing 74.2% of his passes with 6 TDs and just 2 INTs. His 296.8 passing yards per game rank among the nation's leaders.

Jackson has also been extremely efficient, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt while posting a 164.5 passer rating. Many expected an offensive drop-off after QB Drew Mestermaker transferred out of UNT to Oklahoma State, but that has been far from the case.

Tulsa, however, has one of the better defenses North Texas has faced this season. The Golden Hurricane are allowing only 15.3 points per game (83rd percentile) while allowing just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt. They rank 25th nationally in EPA per play allowed and sit 58th nationally in net adjusted EPA/play allowed, per CollegeFootballRatings.

Offensively, Tulsa has been much more dependent on its running game. The Golden Hurricane average 181.5 rushing yards per game, compared to only 173.3 passing yards per game.

QB Baylor Hayes is expected to return Thursday after missing Tulsa's last two games. Hayes has thrown for 353 yards and 1 TD over his two appearances this season.

North Texas vs. Tulsa Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 1

North Texas enters Thursday's game as a 2.5-point favorite against Tulsa, returning a 1.75x payout if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for North Texas vs. Tulsa on PrizePicks.

Make your North Texas vs. Tulsa prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction on Spread – 10/1/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our North Texas vs. Tulsa prediction on the spread for Thursday, October 1.

• Tulsa should benefit from the return of QB Baylor Hayes, who will immediately face an exploitable matchup against a UNT defense that is allowing a 56.8% pass success rate (fifth percentile), per Game on Paper.
• The Golden Hurricane could establish a legit ground game against North Texas, which is in the 49th percentile for EPA/rush allowed (0.06).
• North Texas has generated its fair share of explosive plays on offense but will face a tough matchup against a Tulsa defense ranked 11th nationally in explosive plays allowed. Moving the ball methodically down the field may give this Tulsa defense plenty of opportunities for takeaways and negative plays.
• Tulsa does a tremendous job pressuring the quarterback, led by DE Thomas Graham, who leads the AAC with 4.0 sacks. This havoc has helped the Golden Hurricane hold opponents to just a 29.0% TD rate when in the red zone.
• A special teams advantage could be ahead as well. Tulsa ranks 48th out of 138 FBS nationally in net field position (+2.4), compared to the Mean Green sitting 116th (-5.1).

Lock in your North Texas vs. Tulsa prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!

North Texas vs. Tulsa Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 10/1/26

Here are the top North Texas vs. Tulsa picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday's American Conference matchup. Today's CFB picks for PrizePicks include Tayven Jackson and Baylor Hayes.

North Texas QB Tayven Jackson vs. Tulsa: 285.5 Pass Yards

• Jackson is averaging 296.8 passing yards per game, more than 15 yards above this current projection.
• He is also averaging an excellent 9.3 yards per attempt, showing that his production has come from both volume and explosive passes rather than simply piling up short completions.
• The Mean Green rank 21st nationally in pass success rate (52.6%), meaning that Jackson's efficiency is sustainable against a Tulsa defense that has allowed 257.3 passing yards per game.
• Jackson threw for 483 yards and 3 TDs vs. Texas State, demonstrating  North Texas is willing to let him throw at extremely high volume when the game requires it.
• The Golden Hurricane have allowed two opposing quarterbacks to throw for 300+ yards.
• Tulsa’s defense has performed better against the run this season. The unit ranks 27th nationally in EPA/rush(-0.12) but 71st nationally in EPA/pass (0.07).
• With a fairly neutral game script, Jackson could keep throwing it for four full quarters.

Add Tayven Jackson to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes vs. North Texas: 232.5 Pass Yards

• Through his two appearances, Hayes has completed 33 of 53 passes for 353 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. His 62.3% completion rate is respectable, but his 6.7 yards per attempt means he needs substantial volume to reach this projection.
• Tulsa's offensive identity works against this need for volume. The Golden Hurricane average 181.5 rushing yards per game and have run the ball on 51.4% of their offensive plays this season. 
• They also prefer to move at a slow tempo, averaging just 63.7 plays per game. This could limit Hayes' opportunities to pile up passing yardage.
• The Mean Green aren’t a great pass defense, but they are an equally bad run defense, and it makes a lot of sense for Tulsa’s game plan to revolve around the run, control the clock, and keep this explosive North Texas offense on the sidelines.
• North Texas has also allowed 164.8 rushing yards per game (26th percentile), which gives Tulsa a much more attractive path to offensive production on the ground.
• With Hayes returning from injury and Tulsa likely wanting to protect him while leaning on its rushing attack, the passing volume could lack tonight.

Add Baylor Hayes to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make North Texas vs. Tulsa Picks on PrizePicks

College football Week 5 gets underway on Thursday night with a key American Athletic Conference matchup as North Texas travels to Tulsa. Will Jackson continue his outstanding start to the season and lead North Texas to a road victory?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your North Texas vs. Tulsa picks on PrizePicks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the CFB board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

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Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, news, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.