On Monday afternoon, we’re getting a clash between Grand Slam champions in the US Open round of 16 as Naomi Osaka takes on Elena Rybakina.
Both players have the credentials to reach this year’s final. All four of Osaka’s major titles have come on hard courts, and she was a US Open semifinalist just last year. While Rybakina has surprisingly never advanced past this round in New York, she won the Australian Open earlier this year.
Which player advances in this blockbuster matchup?
Below, we’ll break down our Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Monday’s match now!
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Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Round of 16
Below are the payouts for who will win Monday’s Osaka vs. Rybakina match, via PrizePicks.
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Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction for US Open – Monday, September 7
Match Winner Payouts: Osaka 2.12x | Rybakina 1.66x
Tournament Round: Round of 16
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Osaka 25-10 | Rybakina 42-13
Head-to-Head Record: Rybakina leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
It’s been a bit of a grind for Naomi Osaka to reach this stage, as she survived a tight 7-6(6), 7-6(3) win in the first round against Anastasia Zakharova and then needed three sets to get past both Katerina Siniakova and Elise Mertens.
Osaka has been getting consistent results since the beginning of the clay swing in April, now reaching at least the round of 16 in eight straight events. That included career-best performances at the French Open (round of 16) and Wimbledon (quarterfinals), which is particularly notable for a player who’s historically had mixed results on clay and grass.
On hard courts this summer, she’s won eight of her last 10 matches, though one of those losses came against Elena Rybakina in Toronto.
Rybakina also had a strong summer after finishing runner-up in Toronto, but she entered the US Open with fitness concerns after retiring with a foot injury in the Cincinnati Open quarterfinals. Despite that, she’s advanced to the round of 16 without dropping a set.
None of her matches have been against top-50 opponents, though, and she very nearly lost the first set in her last match against Yuliia Starodubtseva before emerging with a 7-6(6), 6-3 victory.
Osaka will easily be the most dangerous opponent Rybakina has faced so far, and the Kazakhstani player needed three sets to win their first meeting 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4.
Both come in with some concerns, as Rybakina’s past injury could become a factor in an extended match, and Osaka herself called a medical timeout for her own "nagging" foot issue in her last outing.
But at the end of the day, there might not be a whole lot separating these two who have both generally played well of late. With that in mind, Osaka could have a shot at the upset, particularly against a player who may still not be 100% despite her positive results.
Make your Osaka vs. Rybakina US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina Pick for the US Open on Monday
These two have eerily similar numbers on hard courts this year. Osaka and Rybakina have both won 63.9% of their service points on the surface in 2026, which trails only Aryna Sabalenka. Meanwhile, Rybakina has won 42.2% of her return points, while Osaka is at 42.0%.
Both players own excellent career win rates in tour-level matches on hard courts. Rybakina has won 69.9% of such matches; Osaka has won 67.6%.
When these two played to three sets in Toronto, they totaled 33 games.
Osaka’s three US Open matches have reached 26, 27, and 30 total games.
Osaka vs. Rybakina Pick – 23 Total Games
Pick Osaka to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina should be one of the best matches on Monday’s slate. Which player emerges victorious and advances to the women’s quarterfinals?
Don’t wait until Monday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!
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