One of the most polarizing Week 10 college football matchups pits two top-15 programs against each other. The #11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will host the #1 Miami Hurricanes on Saturday, November 7, with the game kicking off at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. The Fighting Irish are a 7.5-point favorite on the spread, via PrizePicks.
Miami is undefeated this season and comes off a hard-fought 38-35 win over North Carolina last week. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 7-1, with its lone loss coming against #9 BYU last month.
Below, we’ll break down our Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction and picks for Saturday night’s game, including the spread, over/under, and player projections for PrizePicks.
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#1 Miami vs. #11 Notre Dame Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, November 7
Notre Dame enters Saturday's game as a 7.5-point favorite against Miami, returning a 1.35x payout if it wins outright, via PrizePicks — or $135 on a $100 entry if you’re right.
Here are the full payouts for Miami vs. Notre Dame. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
Miami has been the #1 team in the AP Top 25 Poll for the last three weeks since Georgia landed in the loss column. The Hurricanes are paced by an offense that averages 534.9 yards per game (second in FBS) and 332.4 passing yards per game (fourth in FBS) this season.
QB Darian Mensah continued his sensational season against North Carolina last week, completing 22 of 29 passes for 274 yards and 3 TDs. Mensah has thrown 3+ TDs in seven of his eight games this season and has been intercepted only once. As a result, Mensah has a 3.12x payout to win the Heisman Trophy (second shortest), via PrizePicks.
Unfortunately for Mensah, he’ll be without his top target when Miami takes on Notre Dame on Saturday. Star WR Malachi Toney suffered an ankle injury in practice Wednesday and is scheduled to undergo surgery. The timeline for Toney’s return is likely around four weeks, which would allow Toney to return in time for the College Football Playoff, per ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
Toney ranks second nationally in receptions (73) and third in receiving yards (1,027), while being tied for second in receiving TDs (13). The Hurricanes wideout caught 7 passes for 75 yards and 2 TDs against the Tar Heels last week.
Defensively, Miami has also had its moments of elite play by allowing 17.8 PPG (second in the ACC) and 312.6 yards per game (fourth in the ACC).
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is aiming to come away with its first statement win of the 2026 season. Earlier this season, Notre Dame fell just short of toppling then-#8 BYU on the road to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee.
After the loss to BYU, Notre Dame bounced back with a 35-13 win over Navy last week. As on many occasions this season, QB CJ Carr led the offense, and the Fighting Irish rode their shutdown defense to victory.
Carr completed 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards and 2 TDs. It marked the sixth game in which Carr tossed multiple TDs this season.
The Fighting Irish have been one of the most dominant defenses in college football in 2026. Notre Dame has allowed just 13.4 PPG (fourth in FBS) and the fewest yards per game in the nation (236.3).
Notre Dame has won three of the last five meetings against Miami.
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Miami vs. Notre Dame Prediction on Spread – 11/7/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Miami vs. Notre Dame pick on the spread for Saturday, November 7.
- Notre Dame is 3-1 against the spread at home this season, while Miami is 2-2 against the spread on the road in 2026.
- The Fighting Irish are one of the top defenses in the FBS, allowing just 13.4 PPG (fourth nationally) and the fewest yards per game (236.3).
- Miami may possess one of the nation’s top offenses, but it takes a huge hit without Toney in the lineup.
- To make matters worse, Notre Dame allows just 150.9 passing yards per contest (sixth in FBS). Additionally, the Fighting Irish defense has posted a -0.13 EPA/pass (15th nationally), per Game on Paper.
- Notre Dame has been electric offensively, averaging 40.4 PPG this season (sixth in FBS).
- The Fighting Irish have also tallied a 0.35 EPA/pass, ranking fourth nationally.
- Miami has a 1-9 straight-up record against Notre Dame in South Bend. In fact, the Hurricanes’ lone win came in a 31-13 victory in 1984.
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Miami vs. Notre Dame Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/7/26
Here are the top Miami vs. Notre Dame picks to target on Saturday, November 7. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include WR Cooper Barkate and QB CJ Carr.
Miami WR Cooper Barkate vs. Notre Dame: 55.5 Rec Yards
- Barkate has caught 28 passes for 372 yards (13.3 yards per reception) and 4 TDs.
- While Toney has been Mensah’s top target, Mensah has chemistry with Barkate from their time together at Duke in 2025. Barkate led the Blue Devils in receptions (72), receiving yards (1,106), TDs (7), and yards per reception (15.4).
- Barkate has caught 83.9% of his passes this season.
- While Notre Dame possesses an elite secondary, the Fighting Irish have allowed an opposing WR to record at least 64 receiving yards in three of their last five games.
Pick Cooper Barkate + Miami to cover the spread on PrizePicks!
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr vs. Miami: 245.5 Pass Yards
- Carr has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,849 yards with 18 TDs and just 1 INT in eight games.
- The Fighting Irish signal-caller has recorded a 0.36 EPA per dropback this season, which ranks fifth among QBs.
- Carr averages 8.31 yards per dropback in 2026 (ninth among QBs).
- The Miami defense has posted a 0.20 EPA/pass, ranking 110th nationally out of 138 FBS teams.
Add CJ Carr + Notre Dame to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Make Miami vs. Notre Dame Picks on PrizePicks
Notre Dame boasts one of the most stingy defenses in college football this season, while Miami will be without one of its top playmakers in WR Malachi Toney. Can the Fighting Irish come away with a marquee win on their home field on Saturday night?
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Miami vs. Notre Dame picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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