Few college football rivalries have as deep a history as Florida State and Miami. These teams will meet for the 70th time on Saturday, and this is has been a close rivalry, with Miami only having a 36-33 series lead.
Miami and FSU meet again on Saturday in Tallahassee, Fla., with a ton on the line this year, as both teams are ranked — Miami at No. 3 and Florida State at No. 18. It is the first time since 2016 that both teams enter the matchup ranked in the top 25 of the AP Poll.
Below, we'll breakdown our Miami vs. FSU prediction and preview the top PrizePicks picks for this ACC rivalry set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
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The quarterbacks highlight this game, as each is having a great start to the year. Miami QB Carson Beck has been impressive and is an early Heisman Trophy candidate.
Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos has reinvigorated the Seminoles' passing game, which was 114th in passing yards per game (174.9) in 2024, by throwing for over 200 yards in three straight games, leading the Seminoles offense to 8th in dropback EPA/play.
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Miami vs. Florida State Prediction, Preview for Week 6
Florida State (3-1) has a chance to get back into contention in the ACC if it can secure a conference win against the Hurricanes. Miami (4-0) could be ready for this matchup to kickoff its ACC season, having already defeated two ranked teams this year — but neither has been on the road.
Miami Preview vs. FSU
- Miami enters this game 4-0 despite a challenging schedule, as ESPN has ranked its strength of schedule at No. 4.
- The Hurricanes are 27th this season in points scored per game (34.0), but it is far from being the top-scoring team they were last year (45.0).
- Miami ranks 8th in offensive success rate (51.6%), per Game on Paper. The Hurricanes will face the Seminoles defense that ranks 45th in success rate (45th).
- Miami’s defense has been one of the best in the country thanks to new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman.
- The run defense has been especially tough as they have yet to allow an opponent to rush for 100 yards, allowing just a 29.3% success rate (9th) and -0.23 EPA/rush (8th).
Florida State Preview vs. Miami
- Head coach Mike Norvell has put the 2-10 record from last year behind him and has already exceeded his win total from 2024.
- The Seminoles have also gone from 124th in net EPA (-0.020) to 3rd (0.44).
- New FSU offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has revamped this offense, and the Seminoles are now fifth in run play percentage (66.67%).
- The Seminoles are sixth in yards per carry (6.6) ad fourth in rush success rate (53.3%).
- They also rank 1st in available yards percentage on offense.
- They can also stop the run as PFF has them fifth in run defensive grade (92.8).
Miami vs. Florida State Picks for CFB DFS, PrizePicks
Here are three Miami vs. Florida State picks to consider for Saturday's matchup. Miami QB Carson Beck and FSU QB Tommy Castellanos make up the top PrizePicks picks to target.
🏈 Get more Saturday CFB DFS picks here for Week 6, including Alabama QB Ty Simpson
Miami QB Carson Beck Projection: 236.5 Passing Yards
- Miami QB Carson Beck is ninth in completion percentage (73.2%) in college football.
- Beck passed for 205 yards in Week 1 vs. Notre Dame's 99th ranked pass defense in EPA/play, per Game on Paper.
- Florida State ranks 30th in opponent completion percentage allowed (58.49%).
- Miami is 20th in sacks allowed per game (1.0), behind an offensive line that ranks 8th in pass block grade via PFF.
- The Seminoles defense ranks 42nd in sacks per game (2.3).
- According to PFF, the Georgia transfer’s 3 INTs when being blitzed are tied for the most in college football.
Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. Projection: 78.5 Rushing Yards
- Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. has rushed for 100+ yards in back-to-back games for the first time.
- Among running backs with 65 or more carries, Fletcher’s 5.9 yards per carry are the seventh-most.
- Florida State is 30th in defensive rush EPA (0.007).
- The junior running back has not faced an opponent who ranks inside the top 40 in defensive rush EPA.
- The Canes have the seventh-best PFF run blocking grade (75.1).
- FSU’s run defense showed its vulnerability in the Week 5 loss to Virginia, where they allowed a season-high 4.4 per carry.
Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos Projection: 180.5 Passing Yards
- Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos’ 12.1 yards per completion are the highest among quarterbacks with a minimum of 70 pass attempts.
- Miami is 32nd in passing yards allowed per completion (10.4).
- FSU is 16th in pass success (52.2%).
- The Hurricanes are 30th in opponents’ pass success (36.1%).
- Castellanos has passed for more than 200 yards in three straight games, including two blowouts.
Florida State RB Gavin Sawchuk Projection: 48.5 Rushing Yards
- Florida State RB Gavin Sawchuk has seen a significant increase in carries. He has gone from 14 carries in the first two games to 28 in the last two.
- FSU is fourth in rush attempts per game (50.0) in the country.
- Miami is ranks seventh in opponents’ rush attempts per game (28.0).
- The Oklahoma transfer’s 61.9% success rate is tied for 13th among all RBs, per Game on Paper.
- The Hurricanes are ninth in opponents' rush success rate (29.3%).
Make Miami vs. FSU Picks on PrizePicks
With Florida State losing to ACC opponent Virginia in Week 5, the Seminoles cannot take a second loss in the conference if they want to have a chance to win the ACC Championship. Miami will seek a third win against a ranked opponent to solidify itself as a National Championship favorite.
As the 70th installment of the Miami-FSU rivalry kicks off, there's no better time to get in on the real-money college football action with PrizePicks, where you can cash in on your Miami vs. FSU predictions.
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Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the CFB season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and CFB DFS Lineups.
