Tonight, we’ll see Martin Damm face Frances Tiafoe in an all-American first-round matchup. The two also met at last year’s US Open, where Tiafoe emerged victorious in a competitive four-setter.
Below, we’ll break down our Martin Damm vs. Frances Tiafoe prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
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Martin Damm vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Favorite for the US Open First Round
Below are the payouts for who will win Monday’s Damm vs. Tiafoe match, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
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Martin Damm vs. Frances Tiafoe US Open Prediction – Monday, August 31
Match Winner Payouts: Damm 3.84x | Tiafoe 1.21x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Damm 9-12 | Tiafoe 37-16
Head-to-Head Record: Tiafoe leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN2
Frances Tiafoe is fresh off a runner-up finish at the Cincinnati Open, a promising sign for the two-time US Open semifinalist following a sluggish start to the summer.
Tiafoe earned wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti, and Brandon Nakashima before ultimately falling to Arthur Fils in three sets. All of those opponents enter the US Open ranked inside the top 20.
Martin Damm reentered the top 100 this summer, but his summer hard-court results have been a mixed bag. While Damm got a top-10 win over Daniil Medvedev in Winston-Salem, he went 5-4 across four tournaments (including qualifying matches), and his other four wins came against players ranked outside the top 100.
Overall, Damm is just 6-7 in tour-level matches on hard courts this season, whereas Tiafoe is 21-10.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Tiafoe ranks as the 14th-best player on hard courts, compared to 97th for Damm. As a result, Tiafoe projects to be victorious 82.8% of the time.
Tiafoe also leads the head-to-head 1-0, with their lone meeting coming at the 2025 US Open.
Make your Damm vs. Tiafoe US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Martin Damm vs. Frances Tiafoe for the US Open on Monday
While Damm is the underdog, he might be able to win a set or two. When these two faced off at last year’s US Open, Tiafoe won 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(8), 7-5 across 47 total games.
Part of what makes Damm dangerous is his big serve. Despite being the world No. 90, the 22-year-old owns the 11th-best serve shot quality over the past 52 weeks, per Tennis Data Innovations.
On hard courts this year, that’s played out to Damm putting up a whopping 17.2% ace rate. Couple that with Tiafoe getting aced on the surface 13.5% of the time, the second-worst mark among the top 50 players, and we could see Damm more than holding his own on serve.
While Damm will have that working in his favor, his return game is far less effective. He’s won only 32.9% of his return points on hard courts this year and ranks 87th in return shot quality. With break point chances potentially being limited on both sides, we could see multiple tight sets as we did in 2025.
Damm vs. Tiafoe Pick – 39.5 Total Games
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We saw a close match between Frances Tiafoe and Martin Damm at the US Open last season. How will things play out in the rematch tonight?
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