On Sunday night, 24-time major winner Novak Djokovic will be in action against Mariano Navone. With Jannik Sinner sidelined and Carlos Alcaraz just returning from a lengthy absence, the 39-year-old Djokovic could have a prime opportunity to claim his fifth US Open title in what looks like a wide-open field.
Below, we’ll break down our Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Sunday’s match now!
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Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Favorite for the US Open First Round
Below are the payouts for who will win Sunday’s Navone vs. Djokovic match, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
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Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic US Open Prediction – Sunday, August 30
Match Winner Payouts: Navone 4.76x | Djokovic 1.16x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Navone 21-20 | Djokovic 14-6
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Novak Djokovic has played sparingly in 2026, and when we last saw him, he was one-and-done at the Cincinnati Open, losing a three-setter to Thiago Agustin Tirante.
While that doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence, Djokovic made deep runs at two of three majors this season, finishing runner-up at the Australian Open and reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon. At this stage in his career, rest in between the Grand Slams has been his main priority as he seeks his 25th major title.
If Djokovic plays up to his usual standards, Mariano Navone isn’t the type of opponent who should put him on upset alert.
While Navone is ranked inside the top 50, he’s primarily a clay specialist, owning an unsightly 29.3% career win rate on hard courts. The fact he went 3-3 across three hard-court tournaments this summer has to largely be viewed as a success, as it’s still put him at just 4-8 in tour-level matches on the surface this year.
Further, Navone has won only 61.6% of his service points on hard courts this season, which ranks 46th among the top 50 players.
It’s also noteworthy that this match is being played at night, as hot and humid conditions contributed to Djokovic's recent loss in Cincinnati. He will enjoy much milder conditions this evening.
Although it's possible Djokovic comes out of the gate rusty, he should have a sizable advantage against a player with an iffy track record on non-clay surfaces. According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Djokovic is projected to win 89.0% of the time.
Make your Navone vs. Djokovic US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic for the US Open on Sunday
Navone vs. Djokovic Pick – 34.5 Total Games
Given Djokovic’s questionable form after playing just one hard-court match since Wimbledon, it’s possible Navone could win a set off him. Navone has generally played competitive matches on hard courts this summer, with four of his six matches going three sets and/or featuring a tiebreak.
This is further backed by Djokovic’s results in the last two majors, as seven of his nine matches at the French Open and Wimbledon went at least four sets. His only matches that finished in straight sets were a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas (12 straight defeats to Djokovic) and a loss to world No. 1 Jannik Sinner.
Additionally, in nine matches against top-50 players this season, all nine opponents have won at least one set off Djokovic.
Pick Djokovic to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic opens the night session on Arthur Ashe Stadium tonight. Will he make a run at the championship in 2026?
Don’t wait until Sunday’s matches start—make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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