With Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, and Alex Michelsen all advancing on Sunday, Learner Tien will try to become the fourth American man to make this year’s US Open quarterfinals.
Tien faces Karen Khachanov, a player who’s had a tough season but was ranked inside the top 10 as recently as last season and was a US Open semifinalist in 2022. Can the American get past Khachanov to reach his second major quarterfinal?
Below, we’ll break down our Karen Khachanov vs. Learner Tien prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 4 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN2.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Monday’s match now!
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Karen Khachanov vs. Learner Tien Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Round of 16
Below are the payouts for who will win Monday’s Khachanov vs. Tien match, via PrizePicks.
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Karen Khachanov vs. Learner Tien Prediction for US Open – Monday, September 7
Match Winner Payouts: Khachanov 2.5x | Tien 1.49x
Tournament Round: Round of 16
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Khachanov 16-18 | Tien 26-15
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 4 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN2
Learner Tien cruised through his first two matches with straight-set wins over Nuno Borges and Gael Monfils, but he got everything he could handle in the third round against world No. 18 Jakub Mensik.
In the battle of rising stars, Tien outlasted Mensik 6-3, 1-6, 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-4 in a five-set win that ended at nearly 1:30 a.m. on Sunday morning.
The American is now one win away from his second Grand Slam quarterfinal, having reached that stage at the Australian Open earlier in the year.
Karen Khachanov began the year ranked inside the top 20, but a lackluster campaign has caused his ranking to plummet to No. 50, and he even came to New York riding a four-match losing streak. It’s safe to say little was expected of him at this US Open.
Yet, here he is in the round of 16 following wins over Roman Andres Burruchaga, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Benjamin Bonzi.
Although the win over world No. 4 Auger-Aliassime stands out, FAA admitted to suffering from physical issues during that match that included feeling “dizzy and seeing spots.” Meanwhile, Burruchaga arrived in New York on his own four-match losing skid, while Bonzi is barely ranked inside the top 100.
While Khachanov deserves credit for winning three consecutive matches for the first time since May, it’s also safe to say he’s benefited from a generous draw to this point. Even with the Russian’s three wins here, he’s just one win above .500 for the year.
With that in mind, Tien could have a solid shot at advancing. Due to their contrasting seasons, Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings place the American 12th on hard courts, while Khachanov has dropped to 55th. The model projects Tien to win 74.7% of the time.
Make your Khachanov vs. Tien US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Karen Khachanov vs. Learner Tien Pick for the US Open on Monday
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
In 2026, Khachanov is 10-10 in hard-court matches, while Tien is 18-9.
Over the first three rounds, Tien has scored 30, 26.5, and 13 fantasy points.
Khachanov is 2-11 against top-50 players this season. Of the two wins, one was his recent victory over an ailing Auger-Aliassime, and the other came way back at the Australian Open in January.
On hard courts, Tien has won nine out of 11 matches against players ranked 50th or worse this year. Khachanov hasn't won more than three matches in a row once all season.
Tien Pick – 16.5 Fantasy Score
Pick Tien to win + fantasy score on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
The American men have performed well at this year’s US Open, and Learner Tien could become the fourth one to reach the quarterfinals. Will he be able to advance past Karen Khachanov?
Don’t wait until Monday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!
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