On Tuesday, Americans Jessica Pegula vs. Emma Navarro will lead off the night session on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Both players have made deep runs in New York before. For Pegula, this is the fourth time she’s reached the US Open quarterfinals in the last five years, and she was a finalist in 2024 and a semifinalist last season. Navarro was a semifinalist at the 2024 US Open and is now one win away from matching that career best.
Below, we’ll break down our Jessica Pegula vs. Emma Navarro prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Tuesday’s match now!
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Jessica Pegula vs. Emma Navarro Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Quarterfinals
Below are the payouts for who will win Tuesday’s Pegula vs. Navarro match, via PrizePicks.
Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Jessica Pegula vs. Emma Navarro Prediction for US Open – Tuesday, September 8
Match Winner Payouts: Pegula 1.23x | Navarro 3.84x
Tournament Round: Quarterfinals
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Pegula 45-12 | Navarro 21-19
Head-to-Head Record: Pegula leads 4-0
Scheduled Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Jessica Pegula has mostly powered through her draw, defeating Elena Gabriela Ruse, Sofia Kenin, Leylah Fernandez, and Sorana Cirstea. Fernandez is the only one to take a set off the American thus far.
And so continues what’s been a fantastic year on hard courts for Pegula, who’s now 33-7 on the surface. She’s also 14-3 in hard-court matches since Wimbledon, finishing as a finalist in Cincinnati and Washington.
Meanwhile, Emma Navarro had to navigate a pair of tricky three-setters in the first two rounds against Lois Boisson and Caty McNally, but she’s seemingly raised her level as she’s gotten deeper into the event, beating Karolina Muchova and Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets.
However, Navarro is just 10-12 on hard courts this season. While many of those losses came early in the season when she was struggling with fatigue due to hypothyroidism, it wasn’t like Navarro was looking particularly sharp in the lead-up to the US Open, winning only two of five matches across Washington, Toronto, and Cincinnati.
One of those losses came in straight sets to Pegula, too. In fact, Navarro has lost all four of her career matches against her fellow countrywoman, three of which have come on this surface.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Pegula is projected to win 85.2% of the time. Although Navarro has impressed in her last two matches, Pegula’s been locked in all summer and has dominated this head-to-head, suggesting she could have the advantage tonight.
Make your Pegula vs. Navarro US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Jessica Pegula vs. Emma Navarro for the US Open on Tuesday
Pegula Pick – 20.5 Fantasy Score
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
Over the first four rounds, Pegula has scored 24, 26, 14.5, and 21 fantasy points.
When Pegula played Navarro at the Cincinnati Open a few weeks back, she won 7-5, 6-2 and scored 22.5 fantasy points.
Pegula has performed better than Navarro on both serve and return in hard-court matches this season. Pegula has won 62.4% of her service points compared to 57.5% for Navarro, and she's won 45.1% of her return points, whereas Navarro has won 41.8%.
This will be the eighth career major hard-court quarterfinal match for Pegula. She reached the semifinals at the 2025 US Open and was also a semifinalist at this year's Australian Open.
Pick Pegula to win + fantasy score on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Tuesday night's session opens with an all-American match between Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro. Which player advances to the semifinals?
Don’t wait until Tuesday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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